Annual Jobs Needed for Full Employment
Mitchell asked how many jobs per year would be needed to achieve full employment by 1986 and whether the estimate allowed for rising female participation. O’Donoghue cited an NESC estimate of 18,000–23,000 additional non-agricultural jobs annually to reduce unemployment to 4%, adjusted by about 1,000 jobs per year for each percentage-point change in the target.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the estimated job creation requirement per annum in order to achieve full employment by 1986; and if this estimate makes provision for an increase in female participation in line with trends of the past four years.
Comment on this
The recent Report of the National Economic and Social Council (No. 35): "Population and Employment Projections 1986: A Reassessment" stated that over the 11 years from 1975 to 1986 a net increase in non-agricultural employment of between 18,000 and 23,000 jobs a year would be required to reduce unemployment to a 4 per cent level in 1986. These figures would require to be adjusted by roughly 1,000 a year for every one percentage point variation in the unemployment rate chosen.
The NESC estimates incorporate two assumptions regarding female participation which I have already dealt with.
While my Department is in broad agreement with the NESC projections and the assumptions underlying them, I nevertheless recognise that they must be continuously reviewed and adjusted in the light of the most up-to-date information as it becomes available.