Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Inflation Rate.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the latest available projected rate of inflation increase for the year ending 1979 taking into account recent price rises and anticipated increases in CIE fares, oil prices and other commodities.
13.
Comment on this
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development the expected inflation figure for the year 1979 with a comparative figure for 1978.
Comment on this
With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I propose to take questions Nos. 12 and 13 together.
The rate of inflation as measured by the consumer price index for the year ending mid-November 1979 is forecast at 11½ per cent compared with 7.9 per cent for the year ended mid-November 1978.
Comment on this
Does this represent an increase on previous figures forecast by the Government? If so, what is the nature and extent of the increase?
Comment on this
No, because I do not think any figure was forecast by the Government for the year as a whole but only for the end year inflation.
Comment on this
Would the Minister accept that the only meaningful figure in inflation is a year-on-year figure and that end year figures can be successfully manipulated by the Government to give an unduly favourable indication of the economic situation?
Comment on this
Question No. 12 refers to the anticipated increase in CIE fares. Has that been taken into account?
Comment on this
The figure for inflation for mid-1979 could not be compiled without knowing when they will come into operation and how much they are.
Comment on this
May I be permitted to explain to the House that what I have available is the result of forecasts by an inter-departmental working group on consumer prices which, as the Deputy knows, is a standing group. I have the results of their calculations but I have not got the details of their calculations.
Comment on this
Whether I do or not is another question. That cannot be taken out by itself. Other items are mentioned in the question. As I have indicated, the anticipated increases have been taken into account by the working group in arriving at their forecasts which come out as I have indicated.
Comment on this
How does the Minister reconcile the forecast of 11.5 per cent for the end of the year with the forecast by the Minister for Economic Planning and Development in a recent issue of Magill that inflation for the last quarter will be of the order of 6.5 per cent which taken over the year is over 15 per cent? How does he envisage that the end of the year figure will be kept as low as 11.5 per cent if the Minister for Economic Planning and Development is forecasting a last quarter figure of 6.5 per cent?
Comment on this
There is no difference between the two figures. I am sure the Deputy will be pleased to know the forecast shows a downward trend in each quarter of this year rather than an upward trend.
Comment on this
Given the 11½ per cent figure now projected, what happens to the 5 per cent projection in the Minister's Budget Statement?
Comment on this
Is it not a fact that the Minister and the Leader of the Opposition engaged in verbal warfare about this figure of 5 per cent which now turns out to be nearer the figure predicted by the Leader of the Opposition?