Revision of Employment Targets
The Minister said the 1979 employment target could not realistically be maintained because of domestic and international economic conditions, and promised an updated estimate by early autumn. Members disputed whether the target meant fewer people out of work or more people in employment, and challenged the Government over responsibility for the shortfall; the Minister defended its record and said employment growth remained substantial.
asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development if he intends to revise the Government's employment target for the current year.
Comment on this
The Government's White Paper "Programme for National Development 1978-1981", published last January, adopted as an employment target for 1979 a reduction of 25,000 in the numbers out of work. Since then the outlook for the economy has deteriorated because of domestic developments and the slowing down of world trade stemming in particular from scarcity in the supply and rises in the price of oil. In the light of these developments it would be unrealistic to retain the employment target set out in the White Paper for this year.
It is not possible to state at this stage what revision in the White Paper figure will be necessary as information on the development of employment has been held up by the postal dispute. I can say, however, that job creation in the public sector has not advanced as rapidly as expected again because of the postal difficulties and in other areas slower growth generally is having an adverse effect on employment.
Comment on this
When will the Minister be in a position to state a revised estimate for the end-of-the-year figure?
Comment on this
The Minister has painted a very depressing picture. Will it be fleshed out in more detail in the Green Paper that he proposes to publish in the autumn?
Comment on this
Yes. The picture is not necessarily depressing. Even if the targets are reduced—as it is indicated they will be; the question is to what extent—even the lower figure for increased employment this year will constitute a very substantial increase in numbers in employment. For instance, certainly it will exceed the increase in employment in any previous year in our history with the possible exception of last year.
Comment on this
Am I right in reading the import of the Minister's reply as being that whatever revisions of the employment targets may have to be undertaken will be due solely to factors over which the Government have no control?
Comment on this
Deputy FitzGerald was saying, "That is the Government". The Government have never said that this is the sole domestic factor. On the contrary, in this House on previous occasions I have pointed out, as set out in the White Paper and elsewhere, that a number of preconditions had to be satisfied if we were to achieve the very ambitious targets set out in the White Paper. Part of those essential preconditions was a satisfactory climate in industrial relations. I have made no bones of the fact that it is totally unrealistic to imagine that very ambitious targets can be achieved and very ambitious results attained if we are to suffer the damage and disruption of major strikes or other major interruptions of output. At this juncture it is not constructive to try to apportion blame as between parties, which would be necessary in order to take the point as to how much is to be attributed to the Government or to any other grouping.
Comment on this
I would have thought that Deputies on that side of the House also would see the good sense of the point I am trying to make.
Comment on this
Did the Minister say that the aim was a reduction in unemployment of 25,000? If he said that did that mean a reduction in the live register of 25,000?
Comment on this
If Deputy Mitchell had been here a few minutes ago he would know that that item was debated and we made it clear that we were talking about the target of 25,000 increase in employment.
Comment on this
I made it clear that it was increases in employment which could be equated with numbers out of work but not with numbers on the live register. If Deputy FitzGerald wishes to help his own Deputy he should be more helpful to him. So far I am doing a better job in that regard.
Comment on this
Would the Minister please re-read that part of his reply in which he said a reduction of 25,000 in numbers out of work? Did the Minister intend to mislead the Dáil into believing that that meant a reduction in the numbers on the live register?
Comment on this
How are we to measure his promises, figures and pronouncements? What barometer are we to use if the live register is not to be used? How are we to gauge the truth or otherwise of what the Minister says?
Comment on this
It is not a three-card trick. Is the Deputy disputing that there has been an increase in the numbers at work?
Comment on this
The excuse about numbers leaving the unemployment register and going back onto it again is wearing very thin.
Comment on this
The only people who attempt consistently to indulge in the confusion are on that side of the House in those benches.
Comment on this
It is an attempt on their part to distort the picture and to try to convey to the people that nothing substantial has been done in this area.
Comment on this
For the record, there was a record increase in employment last year. Ignore statistics about anything else.
Comment on this
And there will be a further substantial increase this year, so that for two years in a row, despite international difficulties, we will see a greater impact made on our unemployment problems than in any previous year since the foundation of the State. That is what interests the people and not games more appropriately played in the groves of academia where I will indulge the Deputy's interest happily on any occasion he cares to name.
Comment on this
Does the Minister accept that for two years he has endeavoured to get off the hook of the reduction in numbers out of work to convert the whole argument to the question of increasing numbers at work——
Comment on this
——and that the live register is as good a measure as any as is shown by the EEC labour survey?
Comment on this
The Deputy can have that debate inside or outside this House at any time he cares to choose and I will be there.
Comment on this
The Minister did not say reduction in unemployment, he said reduction in numbers out of work.
Comment on this
I presume, Sir, that your stricture to Deputies applies to all Deputies in this House. In reply to a supplementary question the Minister stated that "domestic factors" does not necessarily include the Government or is not exclusively the Government.
Comment on this
Presumably the results that occurred last year do not mean necessarily that people on the Government side can take the credit.
Comment on this
It was written into our manifesto before the election. The crucial thing we were saying then——
Comment on this
We made it quite clear in our election manifesto, as well as in subsequent documents, that the people have not changed and that circumstances were not changing and what was needed was a change of policy and a change of direction and that, given the right policies and the right leadership, we could do something about our unemployment problems. The evidence is there to show that despite international difficulties and domestic problems we are still achieving much faster progress in this area than was ever previously achieved in the history of the State. That is the vindication of the points we have been making.
Comment on this
I can accept that the Minister has right-wing policies. I am asking him to demonstrate where the leadership is.