asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development if he will make a statement on the impact of further increases in oil prices on Government economic policy, and if it is proposed to revise the job-target figures for up to 1982 in the light of this increase.

24.

asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development if recent economic developments, in particular the increase in oil prices, will affect employment targets in 1979 and 1980; and if any revision of the forecast on the annual inflation rate is planned.

With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I propose to take Questions Nos. 23 and 24 together.

The White Paper "Programme for National Development 1978-1981" published last January set out the employment and inflation targets for each of the years 1979 to 1981. In view of the adverse effects on the economy since January last, domestically, of industrial unrest and, externally, of oil price increases and the prospects of further increases, these targets can no longer be regarded as realistic. Pending information on the actual development of employment so far in 1979, the receipt of which has been delayed by the postal dispute, it would be premature to state what revision of the employment target for the current year will be necessary. As regards the inflation rate, present indications are that the rate of increase at the end of the year will be higher than the 5 per cent target envisaged in the White Paper. A figure of about 6 per cent now looks to be the best attainable. The year-on-year increase from November 1978 to November 1979 is expected to be in the region of 12 per cent. Looking beyond 1979, the Government's economic and social policies will continue to give priority to the elimination of unemployment and a reduction in the rate of inflation to a level compatible with economic stability and the maintenance of the international competitiveness of Irish-produced goods and services. If a sustained downturn in the international economy can be avoided and if we have the national will to avoid further industrial disputes and not to attempt to compensate ourselves for oil price increases through higher money incomes, the prospects for attaining these objectives remain good.

The Minister mentioned an inflation rate of 6 per cent.

Yes, for the last quarter. I said that as regards the inflation rate, present indications are that the rate of increase at the end of the year will be higher than the 5 per cent target envisaged in the White Paper and that a figure of about 6 per cent now looks to be the best attainable.

Does that mean that between mid-August and mid-November the increase in the rate of inflation will be 1.5 per cent? Is that not the time when the economy will be hit by the last round of increases in oil prices and by the current round?

It now looks to be the best attainable. These estimates are not prepared by me. There is a separate group who monitor trends and provide these estimates. I am trying to help the Deputy and the House by supplying the best information available to me. I have indicated quite clearly that they do not now expect it will be possible to achieve a 1.25 per cent increase in the last quarter, but I am advised that it is still possible the increase will be in the region of 1.5 per cent.

I asked the Minister for Finance in April about the effect of the current OPEC increases and the estimation then was that there would not be any effect on the economy.

Much of the oil price increase is coming through now so it will be in the August figure.

I asked the Minister for Finance what the effect would be for the whole year and he said it was estimated that it would have no effect on Government targets, the rate of inflation or on employment.

Although the Deputy is not allowed to quote at Question Time, we would need something a little more accurate than that.

The date was 3 July. I am sure the Minister has it on file.

They should get together.

In view of the sad tidings on several fronts which the Minister has brought to the House, does he consider that the economic policies which he has advised are not working and in those circumstances has he thought about offering his resignation?

This question is not relevant. It has been raised merely for the sake of contention.

With respect, that is the greatest rubbish. Progress has not been attained at the fastest possible rate. The House will recall that the whole purpose of the White Papers was to lay down the maximum attainable rates of progress and to set our sights as high as possible. Given that there has been some deterioration resulting in a slower rate of progress than was originally hoped for, that tells nothing at all about the effectiveness of the policy. There may or may not be some policy revisions called for but they do not arise simply as a result of a slower rate of progress. On the contrary, it may well be that what is needed is a redoubling of efforts to enforce the policy originally enunciated.