asked the Minister for Finance the current Government estimate for inflation in 1980.

The latest published figure for consumer prices is that for mid-February last. This showed a rise of 3.8 per cent over mid-November 1979. The increase in the quarter to mid-May is likely to be higher than this because the mid-May figure will reflect the increases in indirect taxation required to pay for the substantial income tax concessions and social welfare benefits which the budget contained. It is not possible at this stage to predict accurately how inflation will go for the remainder of the year because of uncertainty about factors such as the course of oil and other commodity prices and the trend of incomes.

Apparently the only thing the Minister is certain about is his own uncertainty. Would it be reasonable to expect that inflation this year will exceed 20 per cent?

The Opposition would reasonably want to give that impression. I think their reasonable expectation will not be realised.

(Cavan-Monaghan): That is the Taoiseach's estimate.

If the Deputy is suggesting that economic projections at this stage should be a matter of determined certainty, he had better take note that he is running against the expert advice of OECD, EEC and other informed analyses. If the Deputy has some information available to him which means that we should be isolated from all of these trends I should be glad if he would make it available to us.

The Minister has thought for some considerable time that we should be isolated. It is reasonable in all the circumstances, that have been brought about mainly by the policies of this Government, to expect that inflation will exceed 20 per cent in the current year.

The Deputy asked that question. The Deputy should not answer the question.

The Irish people know better than the OECD the worth of the £ in their pockets.

The Minister said that it is impossible at this stage to predict the outcome for the current year. How was it possible for the Government in 1979 to predict 5 per cent end-of-year inflation for that year?

Circumstances at the beginning of 1979 were very different from the circumstances now.

There are some realities from which Deputies in this House who want to ask questions can isolate themselves. Even the published EEC Commission data in relation to the inflation trends in each country of the EEC have all been revised within a month of publication. Are Deputies suggesting seriously that somehow these are ignoring the realities or that we should ignore the realities in this country? If so they are living in another world.

Does the Minister mean that the circumstances at the beginning of 1979 were more certain for that year than they are now for 1980? If that is so, does it mean that his projection for 1980 is going to be worse than the realities proved in 1979 when inflation turned out to be nearly 20 per cent over the projection of 5 per cent end-of-year inflation by that Government? There was a performance that must have ignored all records.

Order, please.

If I may be allowed to answer the question, undoubtedly the circumstances as they existed at the beginning of 1979 when both projections were made were very different from the circumstances that existed at the beginning of 1980, even if the Deputy is not aware of it.

Not really.

Did I hear the Deputy say "not really"? The oil price increases had not started——

They were well known for the previous three months.

The level of increase in oil prices during the 1979 period was of the order of 80 per cent. If the Deputy suggests that that did not have a significant impact——

That was known three months before the budget of 1979 but they pretended that it was not going to happen.