asked the Minister for Energy if he will outline the possible effects on our oil supplies of a continuation of the Iran/Iraq conflict.

Oil exports from both Iran and Iraq ceased when hostilities between them commenced in September. Due to damage to the production and transport installations in both countries it is unlikely that exports could return to their traditional levels for several months after hostilities cease. It is difficult to be precise about our exact dependence on oil from these two sources but it is estimated at less than 20 per cent.

A number of other major oil-producing countries have promised to increase production as a contribution towards offsetting the losses arising from the war. This prospect, coupled with significant stocks in consuming countries and reduced world demand due to the economic recession, should mean that supplies will continue to be reasonably available. However, it is hardly necessary for me to emphasise how volatile the situation is and how difficult it is to be confident, at this time, that supply difficulties will not arise some time during the coming year.

Could I explore with the Minister the question of the price that might have to be paid with regard to filling the shortfall of 20 per cent? Are we having to get supplies on the spot market or on a contract basis?

We are not buying on the spot market. I have no reason to anticipate any shortfall in our supplies over this coming winter, but I cannot say for certain for the whole year ahead that there will not be a shortfall. The indications are reasonably good and the Deputy will be aware that within recent days there is evidence of information of some exports from Iraq, which is helpful to the overall scene.