Government borrowing and economic performance
Members challenged the Government’s borrowing levels against its manifesto and budget commitments, while the Minister defended borrowing for capital investment and cited improved balance-of-payments performance. L’Estrange questioned claims of increased economic activity given unemployment and factory closures; the Minister pointed to private-sector and public investment, job creation and population growth.
Is it not true that our borrowing has doubled since 1977 and is it not also true that the manifesto promised that borrowing would be only 8 per cent of GNP and that our borrowing is nearer to 13 or 14 per cent?
Comment on this
The Deputy should deal in constant figures when making comparisons. The Deputy will see from the figures I gave at the end that far from doubling, there was only a marginal increase in the level of borrowing in the period concerned.
Comment on this
Because of the level of activity in the economy, particularly in infrastructural development programmes there has been borrowing for public capital programme purposes. It is the Government's intention to maintain the appropriate balance in this area.
Comment on this
Is it not true that in the manifesto and even last year in the budget the Minister stated that it was the intention to borrow only 8 per cent of GNP and is it not true that the Government have now borrowed 13 to 14 per cent? Is it not time to stop this rate's progress? Is it not true that the Government are also printing confetti money at present to get the country ready for a general election?
Comment on this
When I hear played back what I said I wonder are we listening to different records. The Deputy said that I said 8 per cent but what I said was 10½ per cent at the beginning of the year.
Comment on this
It is 8 per cent in the manifesto. The Minister said 10½ per cent in the budget but 8 per cent in the manifesto.
Comment on this
The borrowing requirement is only one indicator in terms of economic management. There are other indicators.
Comment on this
Yes, and also balance of payments which, as I said in my budget statement, is the major element in determining our borrowing requirement. Because our balance of payments, consequently, has significantly improved, we are the only European country, apart from Britain, to have an appreciable improvement over last year.
Comment on this
Not for the wrong reasons. It has been possible for the Government to maintain a flexible approach to enable us to keep up a level of economic activity here.
Comment on this
Would the Minister not agree that the present figure would be doubled but for the selling off of cattle stocks, including breeding stocks. and the 7 per cent drop in the volume of imports?
Comment on this
Secondly, would the Minister not agree that in the budget speech he said that if the provision he had made in respect of the public service pay had to be increased, he was determined that we would not have a recurrence of last year's experience whereby such excess expenditure was added to borrowing? Has he not totally failed to carry out what he said in the budget speech?
Comment on this
No. I want to assure the Deputy that if he locks at the budget statement in full he will see the fact that——
Comment on this
Yes, and if I had the particular page I could refer the Deputies to it. I said that very deliberately then. The borrowing requirement was significant, not in itself but when seen against matters such as the balance of payments and the purposes for which the money was used. At that time our expectation was, in view of the downturn in the national economy, that his year's balance of payments would be of the order of 7 per cent.
Comment on this
It will be considerably better than that, which enabled the Government to cushion the effects of international recession by borrowing somewhat more for capital infrastructural development programmes.
Comment on this
Would the Minister please inform this House and this country where the increased economic activity is, bearing in mind that we have 115,000 unemployed, 60,000 school children, 156,000 people on short time——
Comment on this
—— and factories closing by the new time? Will the Minister tell us and the country where is the increased economic activity?
Comment on this
Even if I told the Deputy, he would not hear it, but over and above that, I want to let the Deputy know clearly——
Comment on this
Because of the level of development in the private sector and the Public Capital Programme——
Comment on this
—— the number of new jobs created will be a record this year. Secondly, for the first time in very many years, immigration will certainly be not less than 20 million. That must be taken account of in unemployment figures.
Comment on this
Twenty thousand. Thirdly, the huge growth in the employment market due to the huge growth in population. Finally, our performance in this area against any objective criteria, again in other countries, is very remarkable, which is by complete comparison with the experience that this country had——