asked the Taoiseach the net flow of passengers by sea and air to and from the State in the first half of 1980.

In the period January-June 1980 the total passenger movement out of the State by sea and air was 1,192,000. The corresponding figure for inward passenger movement was 1,172,000. The net difference between these totals is 20,000 outwards.

Experience in recent years has shown that even allowing for seasonal movements of tourists the net passenger balance is not a reliable indicator of migration changes.

Would the Minister of State agree that it is probably the most reliable that we have in the short term? Would he not agree that there is cause for concern, that at least there would appear to be the start of emigration at the rate of about 20,000 as indicated in his answer? Would he agree that it is the first sign of something going seriously wrong with the maintenance of the population in this country?

I think it brings home to us the need always to hold a census. The fact that we did have a census some years ago has brought out some confusion. The Deputy will remember that by this method we found that last year there was a big increase that we did not know about in the number of people.

The Minister of State is very uncomfortable.

People were there that we did not know were there. We can give the real figure next September.

Am I correct in believing that the Minister of State is arguing that the indication of outward movement of population is just confusion, to use his words, and that there is no reality to it at all?

Really reliable figures can be got only by holding a proper census.

That is not the question I am asking. Is the Minister of State saying that there is no reality in these figures about net outward movement of population and that it is all just confusion, to use his word, or would he indicate that there is an underlying trend that suggests that emigration will start again in this country?

I do not accept that. I am accepting the principle that in order to get a real figure you have to hold a proper census.

Does the Minister of State not believe that?

I believe in the efficacy of census.

If I say the Minister is wrong would he accept that?

I do not agree with the Deputy's wishful thinking.

Would the Minister of State agree that that trend of 20,000 people in the first six months of 1980 leaving the country would indicate clearly that approximately 40,000 people emigrated from this country last year?

No.

Where would they go?

The indication is that the flow is the other way.

The flow could well be the other way and if you wait until next September when I am answering questions here——

He might be answering them next September.

So might the Deputy.

Would the Minister of State agree that like so many other things that the Taoiseach has been engaged in, the only prospect of the Minister of State answering questions next September would be for the Dáil to be absent until next September?

Ceist 23.

Does the Minister of State deny that over the last two decades or so the Central Statistics Office have used precisely these figures in order to calculate the estimated population, taking account of migration?

The only way to obtain a genuine figure is to hold a census.

Is there no commission on emigration?