Exchange controls and capital outflows during the strike
Mac Giolla questioned whether exchange controls operated adequately during the Central Bank closure and whether capital outflows increased. Dukes said commercial banks continued administering delegated controls, with wider limits and Central Bank management overseeing the system; he could not provide sub-annual outflow figures. The exchange also touched on estimates of the broader “black hole,” which Dukes declined to debate at length.
asked the Minister for Finance if, in view of the fact that exchange controls did not operate during the two month period of the Central Bank strike, he has any estimate of the continued drain on the economy through the so-called black hole during that period.
Comment on this
The Deputy is incorrect in stating that exchange controls did not operate during the closure of the Central Bank. The controls, which are administered largely through the commercial banks, continued to operate during that period. No difficulty is anticipated in identifying the flows under the categories of the balance of payments statement for 1984 due to be published at mid-year.
Official estimates of the balance of payments statement are not published on a sub-annual basis. I would, however, draw the Deputy's attention to the statement in the publication "Economic Background to the Budget 1985" that the balance of payments deficit for 1984 is estimated to have narrowed to about 5 per cent of GDP compared with about 6 per cent of GDP in 1983. Hence the overall effect of the external position on the economy was positive in 1984. I would also point out that the official external reserves stood at £2,101 million at end-1984, representing an increase of £86 million compared with end-1983.
Comment on this
Is the Minister satisfied that the level of exchange controls that operated during the bank strike was adequate? Has he any indication that there was a greater outflow of capital during the strike than was the case previously?
Comment on this
I am satisfied that the exchange control system operated in an adequate and completely satisfactory way during the course of the Central Bank closure.
Comment on this
I asked the Minister if he had any indication that there was a greater outflow of capital during the strike.
Comment on this
As I said in reply to the question, balance of payments statement is not published on a sub-annual basis and, therefore, I cannot give the Deputy a categoric answere regarding the outflow. However, I repeat that the operation of the exchange control system was not affected by the strike.
Comment on this
Surely the Minister will accept that it must have been affected because it is the exclusive function of the Central Bank to monitor, regulate and control? During the period in question, for however long it lasted, the enchange control system could not have been in operation in the same way as it was; otherwise one raises questions regarding the whole function of the Central Bank. Surely the Minister is not suggesting there was no problem in the circumstances?
Comment on this
I am sure the Deputy remembers that much of the detailed day-to-day administration of our exchange control system is delegated to the commercial banks who have authority to clear payments within certain specified limits for a number of different kinds of payments. Applications for permission to export funds not covered by the delegated authorities in the normal course have to be made to the Central Bank. The only change made during the period of the closure was an increase in the limits for the delegated authority already exercised by the banks. Other applications not delegated to the banks were dealt with by the management of the Central Bank.
Comment on this
In relation to the black hole element of the question, has the Minister any idea as to the extent of that black hole this year under the following headings: the pricing policies of the multinationals——
Comment on this
The question specifically asked if he has any estimate of the continued drain on the economy through the so-called "black hole"?
Comment on this
Perhaps I might indicate the elements in the black hole on which the Minister might inform us, namely, the pricing policies of multinationals where they can overstate profits to maximise tax allowances here and avoid them elsewhere——
Comment on this
——cross-Border flows which are still continuing and money being illegally transferred out of this country. Can the Minister indicate what the extent of that continuing black hole is at this time?
Comment on this
I do not believe in the notion of a black hole. That is a smart journalist title for a phenomenon which has been well recognised and documentated. I do not intend to enter into a discussion of the issue except to repeat what I said in my original reply that official estimates of the balance of payments statistics are not published on a sub-annual basis. In deference to the Chair's strictures I am afraid the Deputy will have to understand that in its full complexity.
Comment on this
The Minister is shielding behind the protection of the Chair. Everyone knows this is still happening——
Comment on this
I am not saying a word about a shield, but I object to Deputies using phrases like the "black hole" in this House when they know they are talking about normal commercial flows.
Comment on this
I accept the Minister's reply that he cannot know for some time if there have been any changes in the capital outflow. Exchange control is one of the major functions of the Central Bank. That bank was on strike for two months. Is the Minister saying he is satisfied that the commercial banks, without any supervision from the Central Bank, operated the exchange control system without any changes, leaving no doubt in the Minister's mind that everything was in accordance with Cocker? There are no statistics available as regards capital outflow yet, so how can the Minister have confidence that everything is all right?
Comment on this
I have already answered that question. As I pointed out, the operation of exchange control under our legislation is delegated on a day-to-day basis by the Central Bank to the commercial banks. That continued to be the case during the period of closure of the Central Bank, except, as I pointed out, that certain limits within the commercial banks normal work were somewhat wider. The supervision of the system was carried out during the period of closure by the management of the Central Bank who stayed at their posts. For that reason I am satisfied that the exchange control system operated as normal during the period of closure of the Central Bank.