1985 current budget deficit estimate
Dukes forecast a current budget deficit about 0.5 per cent of GNP above the original estimate, but declined to give a precise revised figure. O’Kennedy argued the deficit would exceed £1,300 million and undermine Government targets; Dukes rejected those claims and compared past budget outturns.
asked the Minister for Finance the revised estimate for the current budget deficit in 1985; and if he will indicate the difference between the revised figure and the original budget estimate in (a) absolute terms and (b) as a percentage of gross national product.
Comment on this
Assuming no unexpected developments over the remainder of the year, the outlook is for a current budget deficit of the order of 0.5 per cent of GNP above the budget estimate. The budget estimate was £1,234 million, estimated to be the equivalent of some 7.9 per cent of GNP. I would prefer not to attempt to project an absolute figure or be more precise on that at this stage. The Deputy will be aware that very significant payments and receipts occur in the final two months of the year and he will appreciate that these cannot be predicted with total precision even at this late stage.
Comment on this
Would the Minister not now acknowledge that even the revised budget target of £1,234 million deficit by the end of the year will now be exceeded by well over £70 million and that we will have a deficit of not less than £1,300 million, which would be over 8 per cent of GNP? In view of that, would he not acknowledge that the stated positions of the Government on the budget deficit in all Government programmes are now well short of being realised and are unsustainable? Also, would he acknowledge that the targets in Building on Reality on which those deficits were also projected cannot be realised? What steps does the Minister propose to take to correct the growing deficit which will now add something in the order of £2 million per year, if we allow this to happen to the national debt?
Comment on this
I would not acknowledge any of the matters which the Deputy has asked me to acknowledge. I would, however, point out that, for example, in 1979 the outturn on the current budget was 81 per cent above the budget target; in 1980 — a year in which he had some part in this himself — the outturn on the current budget deficit exceeded the target by 55 per cent; in 1981 — which was a mixed year — the excess was 55.7 per cent; in 1982 it was 45.5 per cent; in 1983, on the other hand, the outturn was 7.0 per cent above the original target; in 1984 it was 4.6 per cent below the target and in 1985 we will be, as I have said, less than 0.5 per cent of GNP above the outturn. I would conclude from that that over the period during which I have had the honour to hold this office we have restored a degree of predictability to budgeting which has been unknown in the previous experience of the office.