171 Mr. J. Mitchell asked the Minister for Finance if, in respect of his Department's Estimates of receipt and expenditure for 2001, he has sought an analysis or report on the reason the Estimates were wrong; if he will give details of the factors contributing to the level of error; his views on suggestions that his Department incorrectly calculated the growth in revenues; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [5756/02]

My Department continually monitors and analyses the emerging budgetary position. On budget day 2001, current receipts were estimated at £24.522 million and the outturn at year-end was £22.633 million. A number of factors contributed to the shortfall in tax receipts. Overall economic growth was lower than expected on budget day. Budget 2001 was predicated on a forecast of 8.8% for real GDP growth for the year 2001. This economic forecast was based on the latest national and international data available to my Department at that time. Underpinning my Department's view of world growth was the EU Commission's autumn 2000 forecasts which expected growth considerably higher than that actually achieved.

My budget 2001 forecasts were not out of line with what was widely believed, at that time, as the likely growth scenario for this economy. The Commission autumn 2000 forecasts expected real GDP growth of the order of 8.25%, the OECD and the Central Bank about 8% and market commentators' forecasts did not differ substantially.