The Taoiseach should have been a weather forecaster. His personal statement to the House earlier in respect of his comments last week about a former chief executive of Aer Lingus dealt in part with the flak that might have flown if he had waited until now to make it. The Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform said that Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats will be as thick as thieves before the general election, but I did not think the Taoiseach would take it that far.

I would like to ask the Taoiseach about the Government's proposed early child care supplement scheme, as distinct from the child benefit scheme which has been in operation reciprocally for many years and which everybody supports. On 30 January this year, an announcement was made on RTE that the Government intended to introduce a new early child care supplement, designed to deal with the cost of child care for children in this country. It was said at the time that the supplement would also be paid in respect of children who are not resident here. When we raised this issue with the Taoiseach, he indicated that the cost of the scheme would be approximately €1 million. On 31 January last, the Minister of State, Deputy Brian Lenihan, said the Government would carefully monitor the situation, particularly the cost. On 9 February, the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Deputy Brennan, said the cost would be approximately €2.7 million. In a Dáil reply on 26 April, the Minister of State, Deputy Brian Lenihan, announced that a cost of approximately €10.8 million would have accrued by the end of 2006. The Department of Social and Family Affairs has stated in recent days that the cost could escalate to approximately €30 million in 2007.

The difference is just €20 million.

Is there a firm estimate of the cost of the early child care supplement scheme? How can the Taoiseach explain the variations between the estimates of the Minister and the Minister of State, on the one hand, and the Department of Social and Family Affairs on the other hand? Does the Government intend to review the guidelines and the decision to extend the scheme to children who are not resident in the State?

I propose to give some background information about the scheme, without taking too long on it. The relevant European Union rule is an old one as it has been in place for 30 years. It applies to many——

The Taoiseach is referring to the child benefit scheme. I know about that. I referred to the early child care supplement.

Is the Deputy talking about the new scheme?

Yes, I am talking about the early child care supplement, not the child benefit scheme. I know about the latter scheme.

The cost of the early childhood supplement scheme will depend on the take-up of the scheme. According to figures provided by the Department of Social and Family Affairs, 50,000 non-nationals claim child benefit in respect of 120,000 children. These figures are known. Of these, 900 families with 1,600 children are resident outside of Ireland. Based on the present position, there could be claims for 1,600 children. However, Members should consider developments since the House debated this issue earlier this year. Since March, or since all Members gave much publicity to the issue, claims for non-Irish residents in Ireland are arriving at a rate of approximately 275 to 300 per week. Until then, the figures were quite low.

Between 60% and 70% of the claimants are Polish. That is the reality. Although the scheme operated for 30 years, no one used it. However, after Members publicised it, they started to send in applications.

The Minister of State with responsibility for children, Deputy Brian Lenihan, issued the letters to every family in the State.

Please allow the Taoiseach to speak without interruption.

That is the reality.

They are worse than Willie Walsh stealing.

The Department receives 350 claims per week under EU regulations for children who are not resident in the country. Virtually all are nationals of accession states. Approximately 7,500 claims for non-resident non-Irish nationals have not been finalised. Based on claim uptake to date, it is anticipated that approximately 15,000 claims under EU regulations in respect of 25,500 non-national non-resident children will be processed this year.

At present, 1,600 non-Irish national children who are resident outside of Ireland are in payment. The numbers are quite small at present. While Deputy Kenny has not asked about child benefit payments, one can only make projections based on a consideration of the child benefit calculation. As for the early childhood supplement, the Department of Social and Family Affairs has only provided one estimate in which it stated that it is likely that approximately 10% of such claims will be finalised this year. Expenditure on these cases this year is unlikely to exceed €1.5 million. The Department has moved from its estimate of €1 million made at the beginning of the year and now states the figure could be between €1 million and under €1.5 million.

This reply is nothing but mastery of confusion. Although I asked him not to comment on it, the Taoiseach has referred to the child benefit scheme. This question concerns the early childhood supplement, which resulted from the interest generated and the manner in which the issue was highlighted during the Meath and Kildare by-elections. Although this supplement was meant to have been paid in May, it will not be paid until September. Families at the margins still feel the effect of the serious cost of child care.

The Taoiseach stated that 1,600 children who live abroad were in receipt of this allowance. This is not the case. The scheme is not yet in payment. He has again confused it with the child care benefit scheme which has been in operation for 30 years and which all accept. The Taoiseach made the point that the Department of Social and Family Affairs has not commented upon the costs of this measure. However, I again remind the Taoiseach that in January, he stated it would cost approximately €1 million. The Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Deputy Brennan, stated it would cost €2.7 million——

The Deputy's time has concluded.

The Minister of State with responsibility for children, Deputy Brian Lenihan, gave a figure of €10.8 million and the Department of Social and Family Affairs gives a figure of €30 million.

It is a bit mixed up.

There is something of a mix-up in this regard and the matter should be clarified.

I recall that when the measure was announced, the Taoiseach stated he did not wish to publicise it too much in case others might hear about it and consequently lodge claims. Obviously, they have heard about it. When one announces such a scheme, it exists for the benefit of those for whom it is intended. The Taoiseach stated this scheme was intended to help parents of all nationalities meet the high cost of child care in Ireland. If the Taoiseach wanted to link it to child benefit, he could have done so. However, it was set up as a child care cost payment for the benefit of those with child care costs in Ireland. Nevertheless, it is now payable to children living abroad.

I again ask whether the Taoiseach has an estimate of the numbers of children abroad who will benefit from these child payments, which were intended to defray costs in Ireland? To clarify, I refer to the early childhood supplement and not to the child benefit scheme. I repeat that although the intention was to pay the supplement in May, it will not be paid until September. As Deputy Paul McGrath has pointed out, families on the margins now suffer seriously due to escalated costs.

It will be before next May.

The scheme will be introduced in August and will be paid for the full period. It would not be a fair answer to the question to simply discuss the early childhood supplement without taking account of developments in child benefit. Members can see the manner in which the figures are rising. I can exclude it, if the Deputy wishes. As the child benefit figures rise and there are more claims from non-residents, the issues will ultimately be linked unless we change the regulations. However, I will accede to Deputy Kenny's request.

I refer to the early childhood supplement only. Based on all estimates and trends, on claims awaiting decision as well as ongoing claims, it is estimated there may be approximately 12,000 non-resident children under the age of six with an entitlement this year. The cost of such payments will be €9.5 million. However, the Department of Social and Family Affairs estimates that only approximately 10% of the claims will be dealt with this year. The actual expenditure in 2006 is unlikely to exceed €1.5 million.