November tax returns and economic response
Enda Kenny questions whether November tax receipts match the €6.5 billion shortfall forecast and urges renewed investment to counter job losses and economic decline. The Taoiseach cites the international downturn and an €8.2 billion capital programme.
When the budget was delivered on 14 October, the forecast was for a shortfall in taxes of €6.5 billion. Will the Taoiseach confirm if the November returns are consistent with that forecast? If they are not, what are the implications?
Comment on this
The Exchequer returns are due for publication this evening, as the Deputy knows. If they are not exactly as outlined in the budget, further measures will have to be considered.
Comment on this
I understand the Exchequer returns to be published at 4.30 p.m. are almost €1 billion off from the forecast made on 14 October, when the budget was delivered. That means the economy in this country is now in freefall. Some 10,000 jobs per month are being lost and while the British Government reduced its VAT rate, our Government has increased it with devastating consequences for retailing within 50 miles of the Border and beyond. There is still no credit flowing from the banks to small businesses.
The budget and bank guarantee system was supposed to deal with these problems but it has not. If these reports are correct — we will know at 4.30 p.m. — will it be the view of the Taoiseach that the budget figures for 2009 will be in shreds? There are over 2 million people at work in this country.
Comment on this
There is a clear need to instill confidence in the Irish consumer and economy. Everybody is afraid to spend a euro now. The Government's budget cut back capital projects by almost €1 billion. Carbon credits were paid out to power generators when it was not necessary and the position in Northern Ireland is now devastating for the retail trade across a swathe of the country.
Will the Taoiseach revisit the capital budget arithmetic because investment is needed in serious infrastructure projects to allow people continue to work if they have been out of work since the collapse of the housing industry? Is the Taoiseach prepared to look at the question of a reversal of the 0.5% increase in the rate of VAT, which is crucifying retail at the moment? Will he consider the implications of the investment available to the Government from a pay freeze, the money from which could be reinvested into the economy to upskill and retrain, provide schools and retain teachers and be used in many other areas which are causing difficulties in the health and agriculture sectors and so on?
Is the Taoiseach prepared to consider again the budgetary arithmetic of 14 October in view of the devastation that now faces us and the lack of confidence that the Irish consumer has in the economy? What is the Government's plan to inject confidence into the economy so we can kick-start it again through infrastructure, retraining, upskilling and getting back to a point where we can begin to trade increased exports? What is the Government's plan now in view of reports that the Exchequer returns for November are seriously off line with those forecast in the budget on 14 October?
Comment on this
As Deputy Kenny is aware, we are experiencing a sharp deterioration in the economic situation internationally and that obviously affects an open economy like Ireland's, as any other. The Government's approach has been to invest over €8.2 billion in direct Exchequer funding in a capital investment programme, together with the possibility of up to a further €800 million in public private partnership money for next year's capital programme. That represents about 5.2% or 5.3% of GNP, which is more than twice the average capital investment in other countries. The package being suggested relates to a stimulus of the order of 1% of GNP. There are various responses from various countries to be envisaged in that, in terms of the draft Commission proposal for consideration at the European Council meeting next week. We are already investing about 2.5% more as a percentage of GNP in capital infrastructure next year, based on existing plans, than the European Union average. We have kept up capital expenditure to the greatest extent possible because we believe that is an important part of providing for a more competitive economy when the upturn comes.
As regards the current budget deficit, an increasing amount of funding will have to be provided next year for a deficit on the current side. We need to address that issue over a period of years to ensure we bring current budget spending back into balance, which will require primarily continuing to look at expenditure programmes. That is the reason Mr. Colm McCarthy's group will come forward early next year with proposals for what other areas of expenditure we will have to examine in order to ensure that we provide some stabilisation in the public finances.