Projected Exchequer deficit
Eamon Gilmore seeks the November tax figures and projected year-end deficit; the Taoiseach says revenues are about 13% below forecast and further measures may be needed, but does not provide the requested exact amount.
The Exchequer figures for the first 11 months of the year will be announced at 4.30 p.m. — very probably before the Taoiseach and I conclude our exchange of questions and answers here. Will he take this opportunity to inform the House what the tax returns were for the first 11 months of this year, and how they compare to the Government's projected figures? Can he say specifically by how much the tax figures for November were behind the projected level? Can he also tell the House what is now the projected Exchequer deficit for the end of the year?
Does the Taoiseach accept that the Government was mistaken in increasing VAT to 21.5% in the budget, making our VAT rates the third highest in Europe? Does the Government have any plans to change the VAT regime, particularly after what has happened in the United Kingdom and the implications that has for cross-Border activity?
On a related issue, I also want to raise with the Taoiseach what appears to be the Government's response to the €200 billion recovery plan proposed by the European Commission. A spokesperson for the Minister for Finance is reported to have said that while the Government welcomes the European Commission's proposed €200 billion recovery plan, the Government's feeling is that enough is already being done. Quite clearly, however, not enough is being done. I doubt if the 150 workers who were told today that they will lose their jobs at FBD think enough is being done, or the other 150 workers at Element Six in Shannon who have been told they are to be let go before Christmas.
Will the Taoiseach inform the House what are the Exchequer figures for the first 11 months of the year? Will he also tell the House what steps the Government intends to take to address this situation?
Comment on this
Expenditure for 2008 is broadly in line and we estimate that the reduction in overall revenues over those projected will be approximately 13%. November is a disappointing month and next month will be also. It reflects not just the situation in the construction industry but also, more broadly, a slowdown across the economy which we have all observed in recent times. Economic forecasters have indicated a difficult year coming up in 2009 also.
While I want to maintain the convention regarding the issuing of the November returns with the Department of Finance in the normal way, there will be a deterioration on the projected 5.5% deficit for this year. It will be above that because of the slowdown in the economy and the fact that the reduction in taxation concerns not only property-related taxes but also other taxes which have performed disappointingly, as one would expect, including corporation tax returns which reflect reduced profitability in the more exacting economic circumstances they are now contending with.
Comment on this
That deterioration must be addressed by the Government examining further programmes to see in what way we can ensure that going into next year, as challenging as it may be, we can seek to stabilise finances further.
The Deputy mentioned further borrowing in order to borrow our way out of a problem, but that is not necessarily a lesson that remains unlearned in this country. We must recognise that, even in the difficult times in which we are operating, there is a considerable commitment by the Government to invest in a capital programme of over €8.2 billion. That is, quite rightly, a significant commitment by the Government given the part of the economic cycle we are in at the moment. It certainly does not offset the reduction in economic activity in the private sector in view of the openness of the economy and the difficulties we now face, but it is a considerable commitment of over 5.2% or 5.3% of GNP in next year's capital programme.
The real issue is the need to continue to work on stabilising day-to-day expenditure in excess of revenues. That is the structural issue that must be addressed and on the basis of figures to emerge we will have to continue our work in that area and identify measures to ensure the sustainability of the public finances. Our top priority is to ensure we do so because that is the basis upon which we can determine a sustainable level of public services in future. On the basis of a deficit on the current budget side and in the overall public finances at the end of this year and into next year, one must consider the question of a stimulus package. We already have in our expenditure a stimulus package on capital investment which is, on average, double that which our European partners are in a position to commit to in respect of public investment programmes.
Comment on this
The Taoiseach answered a lot of questions but unfortunately not the one I specifically wanted him to answer, so let me put it another way. I do appreciate the convention but since it is now 4.30 p.m. the Taoiseach is released from that convention. By how much will tax revenues this year be less than projected, either at the beginning of the year or in the budget? That is the bottom line we want to know. The Taoiseach should express the figures in money terms rather than in percentages. Will the Taoiseach resist the temptation to discuss capital expenditure and so on and give the House the bottom line figure of how far tax revenues will have fallen this year compared to projections? It would be helpful if we are to understand our situation.
When the Taoiseach states that programmes must be reviewed, reconsidered or revisited, is he discussing another budget? Will he address the issue I raised, namely, the Government's budget decision to increase VAT rates? Our neighbouring state and the one with which we have a land border has reduced its VAT rates considerably.