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Dáil
‹ Leaders’ Questions.

Exchequer returns and economic strategy

Summary

Enda Kenny challenges the Government’s economic communication and asks about the projected deficit; the Taoiseach cites weak February revenues and outlines planned tax increases and spending savings.

I saw the Taoiseach had a bit of a gathering at the weekend and I noted some of the comments from there. I am not sure that the Minister for Transport suggesting everybody in the banks is akin to Oliver Cromwell is the right way to go. It begs the question as to where Queen Elizabeth is in all of this. Cromwell was only acting on instructions.

In respect to the Taoiseach's comments about his job, his job is not just to calm the nerves of his own party or party members, it is to reassure the Irish people about their future economic prospects and the landscape that lies ahead. With respect, to date, the Government has not shown any competence to do that. Every time a financial target is set by the Government, it has been way off target. Examples of this are that prior to October, the budget deficit was projected to be €5.8 billion but in the budget it was €10 billion and in January it was €18 billion, even after the pension levy. In reality, the figures have been very much higher than the Government projections.

The Exchequer returns for the end of February will be published in a few minutes' time and I am sure the Taoiseach has been briefed on them. I would like him to tell the House, as it should be told, what those figures are and whether they are consistent with the projections of the Government at the time of the budget and in January.

Last week I called for the need to face the reality of the difficulties facing the public finances and stated there is a need for a new budget. To that end, the Fine Gael party put down a Private Members' motion, to which the Government has appended its amendment. Part of that Government amendment states, "notes the Government decision today to announce further necessary measures by the end of this month to ensure the stabilisation and sustainability of the public finances". What are these measures? What decisions were taken by the Cabinet today? How will this decision or these decisions go towards allaying people's lack of confidence and lack of trust in Government in that there are no figures with regard to reducing borrowing for 2009, 2010 and 2011? These are important questions to which I hope that Taoiseach can give a comprehensive answer.

Comment on this

What I had to say over the weekend was addressed to the Irish people — everybody. I did not get involved in any party-political jousting whatever because of the seriousness of the situation we face. I therefore do not accept the Deputy's critique.

The substance of the Deputy's question relates to the Exchequer returns for the end of February, and they are disappointing. It is clear that tax revenues in 2009 are under pressure. We are in a very serious situation, as we have been outlining, and a serious economic downturn. As was clear to me from my attendance at an EU meeting on Sunday in Brussels, the European Central Bank and the Commission will also be revising downwards their forecasts for the European economy, as this global recession continues to bite hard everywhere.

The Deputy has referred to the counter motion tabled by the Government in which we indicate that by the end of the month we will take whatever steps are necessary to ensure the framework we have set for ourselves, that is, a 9.5% general Government deficit for 2009, will be adhered to. It is important for the credibility of the country that we do so. Before the end of the month we will come forward with whatever measures are necessary, either in terms of expenditure savings or tax raising measures. The end of February returns reveal a figure of €5.759 billion, as opposed to €7.562 billion for the same month last year. We are committed to restoring the public finances to a sustainable position and action will be taken to ensure the deficit will not worsen from the forecasted figure of 9.5%. We have indicated what the first steps taken were. Further measures must be taken by the Government during the course of the year. I hope to set out a more medium term position by the Government in order that the people will be able to see the scale of the challenge and what must be done to deal with it.

Comment on this

I would have expected the Taoiseach to provide the figures for the Exchequer returns to be published in a few minutes' time and indicate whether they were consistent with the projected €18 billion deficit announced in January. Also, I would have expected him to tell us what decisions were taken by the Government today as referred to in the Private Members' motion.

The problem throughout the country is that no one can plan for the future. No business can plan for investment because it does not have a plan or strategy from the Government. People do not know what the Government's intentions are in respect of borrowing reductions in 2009, 2010 and 2011. That is the reason it is necessary to face the reality that the public finances are under extreme pressure. A fair and comprehensive budget is needed covering all sectors to allow the people to buy into it. If they knew the scale of the problem and that their contribution was going some way towards dealing with it, they would be prepared to get back to a point where they would have some confidence where there is none. It is the duty of the Taoiseach to set out the economic landscape for the next three to five years. That landscape is bleak. Therefore, people do not confidence to invest or spend. That is what is causing the crisis of confidence in their personal and business lives. It is the responsibility of the Taoiseach to deal with this. This is the forum of the people. Will he provide the figures for the Exchequer returns which are due to be published in a few minutes' time? What do the figures mean? Is the figure €18 billion or greater? What decisions did the Government take this morning?

In the amendment to the Fine Gael Private Members' motion the Taoiseach "notes the Government decision today to announce further measures by the end of this month to ensure the stabilisation and sustainability of the public finances". Is that simply a decision to announce action at the end of the month, or is it a decision that will at least make some effort to stabilise and sustain the public finances? That is the crisis of confidence. There is no point screaming blue murder about every sector without setting out the Government agenda, plan and strategy for 2009, 2010 and 2011. If the people could see the economic landscape in so far as the Government can predict it properly and make decisions about it, they could at least plan their lives and businesses in such a way that investment, confidence, fairness and opportunity could be restored. In respect of the decision taken by the Government today, will the Taoiseach indicate if it will take the form of a series of announcements to be made at the end of the month? Will he inform the House of the decisions made this morning to enable us to begin debating them and in order that the people will understand that at last, following Fine Gael's call, there is a strategy or plan in place for 2009, 2010 and 2011?

Comment on this

I have given the returns figure — it is €5.759 billion at the end of February 2009 as opposed to €7.562 billion at the end of February 2008.

There is a strategy in place which we have outlined to the European Commission, as required once we exceed the Stability and Growth Pact 3% deficit limit. We have indicated that between now and 2013 it is our intention, through a combination of tax increases and expenditure savings, to reach a situation where €16.5 billion will be taken out of the equation. The gap in the original end of year Exchequer returns is €55 billion in expenditure and €37 billion in taxation. This is the third month of the year and tax revenues are already under pressure. It seems there could be a shortfall in revenues of between €2.5 billion and €3 billion based on the figures if the profile were to continue for the remainder of the year.

The decision taken by the Government in respect of the figures which have emerged today indicates clearly that we must stick within the fiscal strategy we have set for ourselves. Further measures must be taken to keep within the 9.5% deficit figure we have set ourselves for 2009. We have indicated in the documents to the European Commission the further savings that must be made in future years. I have indicated to the House that we should try to set a three year parameter to manage the situation in so far as it is possible to predict it, as the Deputy said, in a downturn which continues and which is deteriorating. The global recession is having an impact everywhere, including the European and USA economies, among others. We have made the decision that we will make whatever adjustments are necessary to meet the emerging deficit in this year's figures by the end of the month. We received the figures today and must consider them and produce a plan to deal with them. That is what the Government intends to do. We are indicating that we will make decisions at the end of the month.

Comment on this

The position is that we will know by the end of the month.

Comment on this