Unemployment forecast and supplementary budget
Deputy Gilmore warns that unemployment could exceed 450,000, criticises the Government’s piecemeal fiscal responses and asks when the supplementary budget will be introduced. The Taoiseach commits to presenting it in the first week of April, while defending the need to control expenditure, support employment and address the global recession and banking crisis.
The Taoiseach should not seek to minimise the impact of the job loss situation by relying on percentages. It is no comfort to people in Bausch & Lomb to feel that when they lose their jobs they represent a lower percentage of unemployment now than they would have in the 1980s. We have never had in excess of 350,000 unemployed. It is the highest number of people out of work in the State ever. It is 200,000 extra people out of work since the date of the last general election. Having 200,000 extra people out of work costs €4 billion to the public finances. That is the Government's problem. The problem in the public finances is directly related to the number of people losing their jobs and continuing to lose their jobs.
We cannot have information being provided to us on a piecemeal basis at this time. We have the level of unemployment today that we now know. We have the figures that were supplied to the Opposition finance spokespersons this morning, which as Deputy Kenny said suggest that approximately €5 billion now needs to be found. There are two additional pieces of information that I would like to get from the Taoiseach this morning. First, what is the Government's projection for the number of people who will be out of work by the end of the year? We need to see this on a total year basis. What is the Taoiseach's projection for that and what is the additional cost to the public purse of the additional people who will be out of work?
Second, for the first time, the Taoiseach this morning described what the Government will now do as the introduction of a supplementary budget. Will he tell us the date on which that supplementary budget will be introduced?
Comment on this
First, to answer Deputy Gilmore, in no way have I suggested that these figures are mere statistics. As I said at the weekend, behind every statistic, behind every job loss, is a person or family whose difficulties are made all the greater by losing their job than was the case in the past, with the anxiety and concern that it brings with it. That point is understood and well made by everybody and all of us in public life are cognisant of that.
Second, I was simply making that point that these figures, every one of which we would rather not have as we would rather see every one of those 354,000 people in work than not in work, represent 10.4% of, thankfully, a more enlarged workforce than was the case in the 1980s when we had these sorts of figures.
The third point I make in this regard concerns the problem of the loss of employment, which the Deputy raised. If we could reverse that, obviously our budgetary situation would improve because there would be more people contributing to the Exchequer. However, the loss of jobs is an outcome and a function of the fact demand for our goods and services at home and abroad is less than before, which is having its impact on the real economy. There are also competitiveness issues we have to address, some of which were not within our control. For example, the depreciation of sterling against the euro, which saw a 30% swing in three or four months, has a major effect, particularly for Irish-based industry whose main market is the UK, quite apart from the domestic market.
Therefore, to try to devise enterprise supports to assist industry to come through this most difficult and unique trading circumstances is a policy option we must also seek to address, as the Deputy said, in the overall context of bringing forward initiatives that will address the public finance position, which must be addressed. We must also seek, where possible, to provide assistance that would be appropriate and targeted to those areas of the economy that produce the wealth and the jobs, and maintain people in employment. There are viable but vulnerable companies but the circumstances with which they are now contending make it all the more difficult for them to continue to trade to the same extent, achieve the level of profits, attract the level of investment and create the number of jobs that was the case in the past. Those are my answers to the points raised on the employment front.
On the other question raised by the Deputy in regard to the date of the supplementary budget, I have made the point that the Government made a decision yesterday that by the end of the month we will make whatever decisions are necessary to ensure we, to the greatest extent possible, can provide a deficit position for this year of 9.5%, which does not exceed that figure the markets have factored in as part of our correction process over the coming years to bring order back to our public finances. It is a huge challenge, as has been said, and one that will require the full efforts of everyone in the House. I look forward to everyone constructively contributing to that debate. We will also have the social partners brought in to be briefed tomorrow to bring them up to date as to the impact of the February figures, and we look forward to hearing what they have to say.
The Government obviously has the bounden duty to address this issue quickly and to do so after giving full consideration not only to the impact of the figures, as best as one can gauge them in month two when facing into a situation this year which is difficult in any case, but we also have a duty to consider the impact the various policy initiatives being considered would have and how we come forward with an overall approach which, to the greatest extent possible, while it will not be able to eliminate further casualties on the jobs front during the course of this year, will seek to maximise that position.
Finally, the figures that were mentioned in regard to unemployment were somewhere in the region of 400,000. It appears clear that if the present rate of job loss were to continue, we are looking well beyond that, certainly in the region of 450,000 and more. We have to be cognisant of that as well.
Comment on this
That answers half of the question I asked. Some 450,000-plus unemployed is a really shocking prospect. What we have to do is not just address the problems in the public finances but address very urgently what can be done to get people back to work and, second, what can be done to provide education, training and meaningful occupation for people who are coming out of work. The prospect that we would have approaching 500,000 people unemployed in the country is a really frightening one which requires very urgent and serious consideration.
I am disappointed the Taoiseach has not told the House when the supplementary budget will be introduced because it is important we know that. I understand the optics of inviting the Opposition parties to make submissions, go in and be briefed, get costings and so forth. The Taoiseach has been in government for 12 years yet he is now asking the Opposition to come up with solutions in a matter of weeks. It would be helpful——
Comment on this
We thought Deputy Gilmore had the answers.
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It would be helpful if we knew how many weeks the Taoiseach had in mind. We should be told when the supplementary budget will be introduced. The Taoiseach should stop dancing around this.
One of the issues about which I am concerned is the extent to which the Taoiseach and the Government are on top of this. On the public finances, the Government has now had five different attempts at it. It had one in July, when it said it was €400 million; it had the October budget, when it said it was approximately €2 billion; it then had the announcement of further cuts in December; it had the further announcement of the levy and so on in February, which was for €2 billion; and now we have another budget. The Tánaiste last week told the country that the public finances were under control but within a week we have an announcement of a supplementary budget.
To be fair to the Tánaiste, she is not the only one. Exactly one month ago in this House when I asked the Taoiseach about the then unemployment figures, he stated: "To impose a further tax burden at this point in the cycle would depress demand even further". He went on to say it was not an option he wanted to consider. The difficulty we all have is that from month to month and from week to week the position of the Taoiseach and the Government in regard to the public finances appears to be shifting.
Comment on this
Of course it is shifting. Look at what is happening in the world.
Comment on this
That leaves us all with a sense that the Taoiseach is not on top of this. The extent to which information is being presented to us on a piecemeal basis is contributing to that degree of uncertainty. We have finally managed to extract from the Taoiseach the admission the Government will be introducing a supplementary budget. He has now told the House that in effect unemployment will be over 450,000 by the end of the year. What is the date or has the Taoiseach set a date yet for the supplementary budget?
Comment on this
I do not want to get involved in semantics on that except to say we will make whatever decisions are necessary to keep us within budget by the end of this month, and we will come to the House immediately thereafter and present our position. In the first week of April, we will have a supplementary budget brought to the House.
With regard to the question raised——
Comment on this
The date, 1 April, would suit this Government.
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The Deputy should be serious. This is a serious situation.
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The Government has been fooling around for long enough.
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The Chair has got very worked up this morning.
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Deputy Gilmore was listened to in respectful silence and so was Deputy Kenny. The same courtesy must be afforded in a democratic forum to the Taoiseach.
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It is like the stations of the cross. That is why they come one after the other.
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The Government is not close enough. That is the problem. The country wants it out.
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There are people outside this House whose lives are being destroyed by the Government.
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Thank you, a Cheann Comhairle. The initiatives the Government took to try to ensure that we would be successful in maintaining our expenditure within 2008 levels were opposed by the Opposition parties. The €2 billion raised in taxes in our budget was opposed by the Opposition parties. The €2 billion required in expenditure and which everybody in the social partnership——
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The Government changed its mind. The Taoiseach got that wrong.
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The €2 billion required in expenditure, which the social partners agreed was the first step needed to help bring order back to our public finances, was opposed by the Opposition parties.
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The Taoiseach got that wrong. It was opposed also by the social partners.
Comment on this
When will the Taoiseach say he got it wrong?
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It is not possible for people to hear intelligibly if the Taoiseach is to be interrupted at every opportunity. Please let him finish what he has to say. It is as simple as that.
Comment on this
When we talk about the need to bring order to our public finances, which everybody agrees we must, the record will show that the Opposition agreed with that proposition in principle but opposed it in practice.
In the present context the four cornerstones of any policy needed to help deal with this situation, are, bringing order to our public finances, trying to get our banks to operate in a functioning manner in support of business and the wider economy, seeking to maintain employment and secure the maximum level of employment we can in this very difficult economic situation and protecting and upskilling those who lose their jobs. I do not believe anybody disagrees with that. That is the approach the Government is trying to take in respect of all these matters.
At this point we cannot give the Opposition a definite outline of how the full year picture will emerge, only to say, based on present trends, how we believe it will be. Every government is facing that dilemma and predicament. This is not a static situation. An economic convulsion is taking place in the world economy, as everybody knows. This country is not and will not be immune from that problem. A small open economy such as ours faces even greater turbulence than others because we do not have a domestic market that will consume some of the goods we produce.
Comment on this
If there is a global recession in all the markets in which we operate that has an impact in the real economy of this country. That is a predicament that every Minister of Finance and every Department of Finance must face. This Thursday, the European Central Bank, which has access to the data of all euro area banks in respect of the European economy, will revise its economic forecast, having made other forecasts two months ago. Similarly, the European Commission, a highly respected forecaster in this area, will make changes because the impact on the world economy, the European economy and every domestic economy is changing all the time. Therefore, nobody can say with definitive truth how long this recession will last, what its impact will be and how deep. We can only say that everybody agrees that, in terms of financial crisis and economic impact, this is the biggest challenge that has faced the world economy since 1929. That was 80 years ago.
That is not an argument to abdicate my responsibility as Taoiseach and Leader of this Government to come into this House and take whatever decisions are necessary however difficult they may be, knowing they will be painful for everybody. It is my responsibility to come into this House to make sure our international credibility as a modern economy is upheld and maintained by meeting the targets we must meet. That is our bounden responsibility.
We will look forward to any ideas that people in the Opposition wish to put into that debate. If they wish to stay away from it that is a matter for them but I do not believe that is their disposition. However, if it is, so be it. At the end of the day, the Government must make the necessary decisions and we will do so. We will do so in the full knowledge that what we are trying to achieve is stability in the public finance position and we will take on a challenge, the magnitude of which has not been faced in this country, in this political generation or the preceding one. We will take those decisions in the very best interests of the country, regardless of the immediate consequences.
Comment on this
The Government has refused to take responsibility.
Comment on this
I want to clarify an issue that has been thrown at the Tánaiste on an ongoing basis. The Tánaiste spoke in respect of control of our public expenditure and the quotes are there for anybody who wishes to read them. Perhaps it might be reported to give a full flavour of what the Tánaiste had to say on this matter. She said: "We have made a decision on the amount of expenditure that we are going to have within our budgetary framework and we must remain within that and that is going to be very difficult".
Comment on this
Will the Taoiseach say, in respect of some of the Independent Deputies some of whom have said they have particular programmes——
Comment on this
That was just a general statement.