We are now two days away from the publication of the Exchequer returns for the first quarter of the year. We were surprised that, for the February returns, the Taoiseach and the Government were not watching the trends. Is the Taoiseach examining the trends for the outturn for March? Last Thursday, the Minister for Finance, Deputy Lenihan, told the Opposition finance spokespersons that he expected tax receipts to amount to €34 billion. When the Taoiseach appeared on RTE on Sunday night, he referred to returning to the figures of 2002 and 2003. The tax receipts for 2003 were €32 billion. Did we lose €2 billion over four days? It seems an awful lot of money to lose over four days. With respect, is this not one of the problems for the ratings agencies? This Government keeps chopping and changing the figures. There is grave uncertainty about what it is doing about the banks.

What is the target for the general Government deficit? The Taoiseach said repeatedly that it was 9.5% but now says that the target for the structural deficit appeared to be 8%. The Taoiseach will recall that the Minister for Agriculture and Food referred to €6 billion, while others in Government talked about €4.5 billion. Uncertainty in business is the hardest thing to price. The continued uncertainty of the Taoiseach and his Government is partly what is driving the rating agencies to take such a negative view of Ireland. Has the Taoiseach reached a view on what he is seeking to address in terms of the general Government deficit next Tuesday? Is it 8% or is it €4.5 billion? How much of it will be recovered by way of tax increases and how much will be recovered through expenditure cuts? Has the Taoiseach decided on these figures yet?

Budgets are prepared and deliberated upon but they are announced on budget day, not the week beforehand. I did not mention any figures when I spoke last Sunday.

The Taoiseach mentioned years.

I did not mention any figures. I was simply trying to convey to the correspondents who attended the briefing the scale of the issues we were dealing with and conveying those to the public in a way that was not technical. It was about saying we have seen a gap arise in the public finance position which means our spend and taxation levels vary between 2009, 2003 and 2004 levels. That is a four or five year period and I was making the point that the correction would occur over four or five years. I was seeking to convey that while the scale and magnitude of the problem is of that order, we have the next four to five years to correct it. It was not something that would be resolved in year one, two or three but over a longer period.

I also made the point — I will make it again so it will not be misinterpreted — that the structural deficit I spoke of is 8%, which is what is regarded by most as the structural deficit in our public finance position at the moment. That seems to be a point of common agreement among us. It is therefore necessary to address the structural deficit in the first instance. There is a cyclical part of the deficit and as I hope growth will return during those five years, we will see a pick-up in our revenue position because the cycle will move into positive territory vis à vis where it is currently.

I was simply seeking to convey the thinking behind the Government's position and the scale of the problem, thinking about how one could convey to people in ordinary language the size of the issue and over what period of time we can expect to resolve it. I also indicated why we should have some confidence about resolving the matter over that period, as we have those five years to make up the five-year deficit that has emerged in recent times. The budget details will be announced by the Minister next Tuesday on the basis of finalised decisions.

Has the Taoiseach at this stage examined the Exchequer trends for the quarter to the end of March, the results of which we will have in two days? It would seem very odd if the Taoiseach did not do what the proprietor of any business would; if there are cash flow difficulties or if one is in a hard situation, the person would sit on the receipts on a week by week basis and monitor trends closely. That is what every business person in the country must do, along with many households, with regard to budgets. They must watch what money is coming in and on the basis of that decide what can be spent.

In the RTE interview, the Taoiseach referred to the years 2002 and 2003, when our tax revenues were €29 billion and €32 billion respectively. The Taoiseach did not speak casually so is there information about the trends? In that context, has the Government priced in the cost of higher interest as a result of the negative rating by Standard & Poor's? My understanding of the drop in rating from AAA to AA+ by the rating agency would probably cost us an average of half a percentage point. Depending on how much the Government decides to borrow — we will not know this until the budget — the cost this year could be up to €500 million and it could be double that for the whole of next year. Has the Taoiseach had the opportunity to price in the Standard & Poor's action?

I listened with some astonishment to the gentleman from Standard & Poor's commenting on the composition of the Irish Government. That is not any business of a foreign rating agency. I am one of the people who for the last two years, together with the Party of European Socialists, has called for rating agencies to be reformed but the Taoiseach's former colleague, Commissioner McCreevy, has consistently refused to entertain such reform.

These guys boosted everything on the way up but are negative about everything on the way down. They have some factors relevant to this country wrong and we have more better prospects than the agency acknowledges. As the rating agencies are not subject to supervision, we are as a country unfortunately at their mercy. The Taoiseach may discuss that with his colleague in Brussels, Commissioner McCreevy, who has taken the very high-handed attitude that controlling rating agencies would be bad for international markets and capitalism.

What are the trends arising from the Exchequer receipts? Has the Government priced in the downgrade by Standard and Poor's and will the Taoiseach have a conversation with his colleague about reforming the rating agencies so that all countries get a fair deal from them?

The Commissioner is in the business of acting on credit rating agencies with regard to conflicts of interest or anything that arises in the work they do and the forecasts they make.

It will be a light-handed approach.

It is incorrect to say that Commissioner McCreevy is indifferent to the role they play. I am sure the opinions are given in a professional manner but I know that the credit rating agency issue has been taken up by the Commissioner. I suggest that member states, the Council and ECOFIN must step up to the plate in this matter in as much as there is a role played by the Commissioner or the Commission.

The Deputy raised a number of issues and I am trying to recall them. On the budgetary position, the Government has been working in a very focused way to measure the adverse impact various options may have and has come forward with a proposal which we believe will be in the right interests of the country given the fragility of the economy this year and going forward to meet our objectives in controlling the borrowing requirement up to 2013. Getting the agreed timeline with the EU Commission over five years rather than four has been helpful in that respect.

I have been indicating for some time that there is a need for us to take those factors into account. As I have stated, the structural and cyclical side of the deficit is a helpful way of explaining what Ireland needs to do in a way that will be credible and helpful to us internationally. The National Treasury Management Agency has been in a position to raise large sums of money through bonds during the course of the first quarter of the year and I have every reason to believe that this can continue.

On the end of March Exchequer returns, when I was asked about this before I stated that one finds out the full picture at the end of the month. As the Deputy is aware, in the last week or number of days, amounts are still coming in, particularly relating to VAT and other subheads. I was making that point.

The end of March Exchequer returns will be published on Thursday and although they are not yet available, indications are that the decline in tax receipts evident in January and February has continued into March. I have also stated that the tax revenues this year, in the absence of corrective action, would be some €3 billion less than forecast in January and as put forward by the Minister for Finance.

The Government is committed to restoring order to the public finances by bringing the deficit below the 3% limit by 2013, which is the agreed timeline with the European Commission. The supplementary budget to be presented next week will set out the multi-annual strategy in that regard.