Tax revenue shortfall
Enda Kenny questions the tax-revenue shortfall and its effect on the annual forecast. The Taoiseach reports €26 billion collected by October, a 17% year-on-year decline, and forecasts borrowing of about €26 billion and a 12% deficit, requiring corrective measures in Budget 2010.
In April of this year, the Minister for Finance forecast that some €34.4 billion in taxes would be collected this year. The Minister later indicated that the Government was €2 billion shy of that forecast for the nine months to the end of September. The most up-to-date figures will be released in the next few minutes. What is the figure for the overall tax revenue for the year to the end of October? What is the likely impact of that figure on the projected annual revenue forecast for the year? How do the tax revenues for the ten months to the end of October 2009 compare with the figures for the ten months to the end of October 2008?
Comment on this
I will start by responding to the Deputy's second point. Just over €26 billion in tax revenue had been received by the end of October. That figure represents a year-on-year decline of 17%. Against the profile, overall tax revenue was down 4%, or €1.074 billion, by the end of October. VAT and income tax continue to be the weakest tax heads against the targets that were set. In response to the Deputy's first point, the returns to be released by the Department of Finance at 4.30 p.m. show that there was an Exchequer deficit of just over €22.7 billion at the end of October 2009. The main factors in that year-on-year deterioration are the year-on-year decrease in taxes of just over €5.4 billion; banking-related payments, such as the payment of €4 billion to Anglo Irish Bank; and the increase of €1.7 billion in the National Pensions Reserve Fund payment, by comparison with the payment that was made in the year to the end of October 2008. A total of €3 billion in front-loaded contributions has been paid to the National Pensions Reserve Fund to date in 2009, compared to the payment of €1.3 billion that had been made by this time last year. When the Exchequer returns were published at the end of September, the Department of Finance signalled that there would be a shortfall of approximately €2 billion in tax revenues at the end of the year. That implied that there would be a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% in tax revenue. I understand that the data in the October returns is consistent with the earlier end-of-year forecast.
Comment on this
Deputy Bruton has pointed out on a number of occasions, particularly over the last 12 months, that one cannot tax one's way back to prosperity. What is the projected shortfall that the Government will have to deal with when it compiles its budget on 9 December next? Does the Taoiseach attribute the fall-off in taxes to the fall in employment? Does he now accept it was a mistake to impose taxes amounting to €6 billion last year?
It is difficult to accept projections of this nature from the Department on a year-on, year-off basis when that Department produced a NAMA business plan asking us to believe monetary values for ten years down the line. Clearly, the range of taxes imposed by the Minister for Finance is now creating very difficult circumstances. When the tax figures of the self-employed are submitted at the end of November, it will be discovered that circumstances are even worse.
Job creation must be central to our approach. Given that almost 500,000 people are out of work, and leaving aside the well-recognised problems associated with the public finances, the banking sector and the extension of credit to businesses, will the Taoiseach state the three main priorities of the Government to get people back to work? As he well recognises, the only way to deal with social welfare lists, to get capital moving again and increase revenue is to put people back to work. Everyone is very concerned and angry about the circumstances that obtain at present.
Comment on this
For the year as a whole, an Exchequer borrowing requirement in the region of €26 billion is forecast. This implies a general Government deficit in the region of 12% of GDP by the end of 2009. Continuing to borrow at a high level to bridge the gap that has emerged between revenue and expenditure is not a sustainable solution in the medium to long term. Our priority is to address this gap and stabilise the deficit in 2010. Central to the process of stabilising the deficit at this year's level are the adjustments to be introduced in budget 2010 on 9 December. The corrective action in budget 2010 will have to come primarily from the expenditure side as we have already increased taxes significantly. Further increases in the tax burden could have a negative impact on enterprise and growth prospects. The measures that must be introduced will undoubtedly be difficult but the imperative for action is clear and we must make the necessary adjustments now.
On the question of jobs, Deputy Kenny should note it is not a question of there being 500,000 unemployed. While 12.5% of people are on the live register, 70,000 of the 412,000 or 415,000 people on the live register are in part-time work and therefore must avail of social welfare for some part of the week. It is important to point out there are still almost 1.8 million people working.
The purpose of Government policy is to make the economy more competitive. We have seen a major contraction in the economy this year and we hope to see growth return during 2010, even if the first full year of growth is in 2011. It is clear from the European Commission, forecasters and commentators that there is a need to stabilise the deficit. That is the nature of the correction we are seeking to undertake in the forthcoming budget. I welcome the fact that Members on all sides of the House have indicated their support for that approach.