Live register and job creation
Enda Kenny challenges the Government over high unemployment, emigration and weak employment prospects, while the Taoiseach points to falling live-register figures and argues that competitiveness and economic recovery are essential.
Will the Taoiseach comment on the live register figures? I listened to the Minister of State say this morning that they were down by 12,000 and that this was an indication that things had bottomed out. The FÁS quarterly economic commentary shows that the number of professionals seeking employment has risen by 84% this year, that one third of men in their early 20s are now out of work and the number of apprentices entering the workforce is down by 60%. In the year to April more than 18,000 Irish nationals emigrated. It is clear also that 30,000 people from eastern Europe have returned to their homelands.
It seems as if the Government's strategy to deal with the unemployment situation is to switch on the tap of emigration and to facilitate longer stays in education. Will the Taoiseach comment on that? Will he indicate what is the Government's jobs strategy to deal with a situation where the live register is clearly indicative of a rising emigration trend and, as Deputy English pointed out the other day, we are again faced with the probability of losing an entire generation of young Irish people to emigration? Will the Taoiseach comment on the figures and indicate what is the jobs strategy of the Government to deal with the issue?
Comment on this
The live register headline figures are officially coming out this morning and they are expected to be 412,400. That represents a month on month decrease of 11,200 or 2.6% since September 2009. The decrease is evident across all nationality groupings. One takes no great heart from the fact that we have 412,400 people on the headline total for the live register at the end of October. The unemployment rate is expected to be 12.4%, which is down from the September rate of 12.6%. When seasonal factors are taken into account the live register for October is estimated at 422,400, which is a month on month decrease of 7,000 or -1.6% since September 2009. The year on year increase of 162,000 since October 2008 is 62.3% up on that date.
It is important to point out that the live register sets out those people who are signing on for jobseeker's benefit and allowance, which comes to a total of 245,000 people. Approximately 70,000 people who are on short-time work or are doing casual work are signing on for some part of the week. Then there are people who have cases pending, whose cases have been suspended or who have been disallowed. They come to a total of approximately 78,000.
We have increased by approximately 38% the number of people who have been brought into the employment action plan process this year and more than 55,000 people, approximately half of the people on those plans, have signed off the register. It is important to note that some of those people have obtained work and approximately 13% have gone into training or work experience. It is important that we recognise that of the 55,883 people who were just three months or more on the register who were referred to FÁS under the employment action plan to see in what way they could be assisted, a total of 2,200 were placed in jobs by FÁS, 5,000 were placed in programmes, training or education and 20,495 others left the live register.
There is a lot of churn, and many people coming on and off the register all the time. I wish to make those points because sometimes the headline figure for the live register is taken to be the level of unemployment. The national household survey is the best gauge of employment and unemployment trends in the economy. Deputy Coveney suggested that cases pending are not included and that one then adds on that figure, which is not correct. Cases pending are included in the overall figures, so while things are difficult there is no point in exaggerating to make a political point.
Comment on this
That is all very fine but one of the big failures of the Government is that it has not interacted directly with the creators of employment and the business sector. It is perfectly obvious that many of them are struggling in terms of competitiveness, costs of transport and energy, sterling and the difficulties that are placed in the way of creating jobs and allowing business to flourish. For my part, I intend to take my economic team around the country in the few weeks before the budget to hear their views directly. The figures for redundancies from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment show that there were 5,888 in August, 6,012 in September and 6,561 in October. These official figures from the Department show the trend is increasing, while the indications are that when the tax returns come in at the end of November, there will be a devastating situation in which many of those who are self-employed or are employing small numbers of people will be simply out of business.
This is the first time there has been a serious return to emigration since 1995. It is a long time since the late Brian Lenihan said that Ireland was too small for all its young people, and we have no wish to return to the experience of the 1950s or the 1980s when emigration was a release valve. In any event, there are few opportunities abroad now. In addition to those redundancy figures and the fact that both IBEC and ICTU have criticised the Government's jobs strategy, the OECD report released today states there is a risk that the high rate of unemployment could be sustained due to a combination of weaknesses in activation policies, which is jargon for a jobs strategy. The €100 million stabilisation fund is only a drop in the ocean. I am sure the Taoiseach is interested in finding ways that jobs can be created. Consider all the young professionals, such as physiotherapists, speech and language therapists, occupational therapists and so forth, emerging from university. The taxpayer has paid for their training and high qualifications but there is no future for them in this country in view of the increasing redundancy rates.
We know the Government must deal with the public finances and the banking crisis, and we agree in broad principle with the figures the Taoiseach has given. However, the central issue is that there must be a jobs strategy from the Government. Putting people in programmes and placements here and there is only camouflage for the real problem. What is the main thrust of the Government's job strategy in terms of giving young people hope and confidence that they should stay in this country and that there will be employment for them? How many of these young people can we expect to see in employment as a result of an environment being created by Government in which jobs can be created and in which they can have the prospect of a job in their own country? What are the three major points of the Government's jobs strategy to give young people hope and confidence and to ensure we will not lose this generation with their skills, trades and potential to other countries?
Comment on this
The best way to maintain and increase jobs now and in the future is by making the economy more competitive. We must bring back growth into the economy. This year there has been a contraction in the economy of 7.5%, which has been a huge challenge to the system. What we have agreed with other members of the eurozone and what we will set out in our budgetary strategy in the coming weeks will be a preparedness to deal with the deficit, to bring more confidence back into the economy by being prepared to take the necessary decisions now. These decisions must be taken to promote confidence domestically and externally in the country's preparedness to take the necessary steps that will bring back growth into the economy. That is the fundamental issue.
With regard to activation measures or what we have been doing to try to help people who find themselves out of work, we have taken a number of major initiatives this year. The number of people on FÁS training programmes has practically doubled this year, from 66,000 to 128,000. The number of people on back-to-work and back-to-education schemes is approximately 25,000. We are seeking to assist in a number of areas in the stabilisation programme, which has helped vulnerable but viable firms in this country which supply export markets. We are facing a further difficulty with exchange rates as the strengthening of the euro against sterling and the dollar is a big problem. We must continue to deal with that.
However, as I said in the House at the beginning of this parliamentary term, the passing of the Lisbon treaty referendum, the enactment of the National Asset Management Agency, NAMA, legislation and bringing forward a budget are fundamental building blocks for building confidence in our capacity to come through this recession. In the meantime, we must provide extra places for those who unfortunately have lost employment and, in so far as we can, assist them in retraining and provide upskilling opportunities for them. That will be an ongoing challenge next year and in the following years. Yes, an unemployment rate of 12.4% is never acceptable. We are heading into 2010 when we hope growth will start to return to the economy. The first full year of growth is estimated, on current assumptions, to be the following year. However, unless we take the necessary budgetary steps in the weeks immediately ahead, we put at risk our ability to effect economic recovery more quickly. The failure to take those steps increases the risk of prolonging the period in which growth will not return to the economy for longer than would be otherwise the case.
Comment on this
Why did the Government not take those steps long ago?