Cost and extension of bank guarantee
Eamon Gilmore challenges the Government’s request to extend the bank guarantee without knowing its final cost, especially the exposure from Anglo Irish Bank. The Taoiseach says the independent Financial Regulator and Central Bank are finalising the figure and that the extension is intended to provide certainty, while deputies dispute the possible €30 billion-plus liability.
Deputy Kenny has quite rightly described the decision to give the blanket guarantee to the banks two years ago today as the worst decision that was ever made. It was, of course, a decision to write a blank cheque for the banks and later today the Government will come into the House and ask us to extend that guarantee and, in effect, write another blank cheque. The problem is that we do not yet know what was the size of the blank cheque that was written the last time.
The Taoiseach told us on the day of the guarantee exactly two years ago that it was not going to cost the taxpayers anything. Within three months the Minister for Finance was telling us that €1.5 billion had to be found for Anglo Irish Bank. On 15 January 2009 he announced the nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank. On 29 May 2009 he announced a further €2.5 billion for Anglo Irish Bank. On 30 March 2010 another €8.3 billion was allocated for Anglo Irish Bank. There was another €10 billion after that. By 10 August this year the total figure had reached €24 billion for Anglo Irish Bank. On 8 September he told us that he did not know the final figure yet but that we would eventually be told it in September or October by the Financial Regulator. I understand that we are to be told that figure tomorrow, the day after this House is asked to extend the guarantee. We are being asked to write another blank cheque this evening and tomorrow we will find out the details of the last blank cheque which will be filled in.
I have two questions for the Taoiseach. Does he know the final figure for Anglo Irish Bank which will be announced tomorrow? If he does know it, will he tell us now what it is?
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That figure is not yet available to us from the Financial Regulator. It is being conducted at the moment and work is being finalised on it. As soon as the figure is communicated to us it will be provided.
On the question of the guarantee raised by Deputy Gilmore, the Labour Party alone in this House voted against the guarantee. It has since sought to rewrite history to suggest that it merely objected to the extent of the guarantee. The truth is it opposed the guarantee in principle tooth and nail. Had it been in government the vista painted by the Governor of the Central Bank would now be our reality. What is being portrayed by both Deputy Kenny and Deputy Gilmore in their questions, which suggest that this is the worst decision ever made, is not borne out by the report from the Governor of the Central Bank in whom I presume they repose confidence——
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——and on whose recommendation we are extending the guarantee to the end of December. If it is a question that the parties opposite do not accept the recommendation or have confidence in the Governor of the Central Bank they should say so——
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The Taoiseach has to make that decision.
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It is extraordinary that the Taoiseach tells us that he does not know the figure that will be announced tomorrow and that it has not been finalised yet. Is that the way the financial affairs of the country are being run? Is the Taoiseach seriously telling us that the Government has made a decision to come in here and ask for another extension on the guarantee without knowing where we are in terms of the cost of the last one and, in particular, where we are in regard to the Anglo Irish Bank figure? A columnist in one of the newspapers this morning said that the first thing one does in a crisis is face up to the reality.
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It would be a change for the Deputy to face up to the reality.
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One of the problems we have as a country is that this incremental additional cost for Anglo Irish Bank, the drip-feed of information and the message that the Government does not know. Is the message going out to the markets that the Head of the Government does not know the bottom line for Anglo Irish Bank and does not yet know a figure that will be announced tomorrow? In that situation he will be in here at 11.55 p.m., before the guarantee expires, to ask for an extension without knowing one of the most critical pieces of information that the taxpayer, the public and, I would have thought, the Taoiseach needed to know before he decided to come in here and put a proposal to the Dáil that it be extended. That is not credible.
We have an economic difficulty in terms of the perception of this country internationally, the lack of confidence that, unfortunately, this country has been experiencing in recent times and the way in which that is reflected in terms of the cost——
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——of borrowing for the country, and the Taoiseach is adding to it by communicating the message that he does not know. That is not credible.
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Some of it caused by the Deputy's irresponsible comments.
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No. I am not adding to the uncertainty. It is for the purposes of bringing certainty to the situation that we said that by the end of this month we would have a figure from the Financial Regulator. The Financial Regulator acts independently of me, as does the Central Bank. It is not a question of a nod and a wink to the Taoiseach of the day. It is a question of awaiting the considered judgment of the Financial Regulator and the Central Bank, which we will have imminently.
To come back to the point, the reason we are seeking to do this is to provide greater certainty for ourselves and for markets which may factor that into their equation in terms of supporting us on sovereign debt markets. That is what we are doing, and we are seeking to achieve that in an independent way through the Financial Regulator who, I presume everybody will accept, has a credibility built up in this area and is the best possible position we could put at this point.
To take the Standard & Poor's position, it was suggesting the figure would be up to €35 billion. I am not saying it is €35 billion but I do not know. That has not been communicated by the Financial Regulator yet but suppose it was——
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What did the Taoiseach discuss in Government?
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——€30 billion, for the purpose of a discussion because the people are entitled to know——
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What did the Government talk about?
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What did the Government talk about?
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Is it that I am supposed to sit down after the Deputy's leader said we are just to leave it at that?
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Did they give the Taoiseach an idea?
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Are we going to have a serious discussion or not? If it was of that order, the interest that would arise, taking the average this year and last year of 5%, would mean a payment of €1.5 billion every year. The figure of €30 billion would be added to the national debt and as the Deputy is aware, the question of paying interest on the national debt and then paring down the national debt arises in regard to growth that comes into the economy over time, as happened in the past ten years during good times, when we saw our national debt-GDP ratio go down from €60 billion to €28 billion even though the volume payment of debt was around the same figure. Our economy grew, therefore, and out of that we were able to reduce the percentage of our debt as a percentage of our GNP.
If we look at the bank position and the reason the Governor would be suggesting this is a manageable situation, and I agree with him, it is on the basis of a €1.5 billion payment to be made annually. Our current deficit, in terms of spending and revenue, is €18.5 billion.
In the first instance we have to look at improving our public finances over a period that will deal with the current deficit of approximately €18.5 billion but in respect of explaining to the public the impact this has in terms of taxpayers' exposure and what it would cost, if it were a figure of €30 billion it would involve something in the region of €1.5 billion per annum.
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We do not have the revenue from stamp duty. That is gone.