Income tax and social welfare commitments
Éamon Ó Cuív sought a yes-or-no assurance that the Government would not raise income tax or cut welfare rates. Brendan Howlin deferred details until the budget process, citing the programme for Government, fiscal constraints and the previous administration’s legacy.
I am delighted the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Deputy Brendan Howlin, and the Minister for Finance, Deputy Michael Noonan, are taking Leaders' Questions. I note yesterday the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council recommended an adjustment of €4 billion in the budget. Following the general election and with full knowledge of the challenges ahead for the country, the Taoiseach pledged not to increase income tax rates or bands and the Tánaiste promised there would be no cuts to social welfare. After 100 days in office these promises were reiterated. Shortly afterwards the Minister, Deputy Noonan, said he would not rule out tax increases or social welfare reductions. It is now 119 days since that promise. Will the Government take on board the recommendations of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council or reject its advice?
When the Taoiseach came into government he said he would enter a new covenant with the people to tell them the truth no matter how painful and difficult it might be.
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The Tánaiste said he would be upfront and outline the challenges ahead. I ask the Minister to tell us for once and for all if the Government will honour the commitment, which was given not once but twice, that there will be no increases in income tax and no reduction in social welfare rates.
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Notwithstanding the damage done beforehand.
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I will not be announcing the budget today. It is a matter for the Minister for Finance on a date to be determined. As the Taoiseach indicated yesterday, the full layout of the Estimates, reform agenda and budget will be determined by the Cabinet on Tuesday. The Taoiseach will give the House the full information on the process and sequencing of announcements after the Cabinet meets on Tuesday.
As the Deputy knows, the Government established the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council to give independent advice and that is what it has done. Its advice will be listened to, together with all the other factors the Government has to take into account, in determining the scale of adjustment required. The commitment both parties in government have repeatedly given is that we will reduce the deficit to 8.6% of GDP next year. The exact quantum of the adjustment to reach that target is currently being determined. We needed to have a firm determination of the growth rates and the final accounts, in terms of taxation and revenue to the State, before we make a final determination on that.
The Deputy mentioned adjustments in social welfare. He had responsibility in that area when the national recovery plan was signed off on. The former Government left us with a legacy because in the programme it signed off on it left a hole to be filled by social welfare reductions of €1.91 billion.
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Tell us how you are going to do it.
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The Minister was aware when he came into government and after 100 days in government of the fiscal situation in the country.
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The Minister took it upon himself voluntarily to make two budget announcements when he came into government and after 100 days in government. I ask for a simple Yes or No answer. Will he honour the commitments he gave on income tax and social welfare?
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As I said, the contents of the budget will be announced when the Minister for Finance announces it. If the Deputy wants to know what will inform decision-making it will be the programme for Government. I invite the Deputy to read it.
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We also have to have regard for the fiscal reality and the mess in which the previous Government left us.
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The former Minister's Government left us with €2 billion in cuts on the table. That was its legacy. We are doing our best to determine a fair Estimates process, have a comprehensive review of every line of expenditure and examine where waste can be eliminated and where we can amalgamate and change things. All of this will be laid out over a period of time between now and December. Uniquely, there will be a full opportunity for the committees of the House and the House itself, if necessary, to debate this. It will be a different type of Estimates process and will be laid out before the House next week.
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The ground is being softened for the Taoiseach's U-turn.
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Vasco da Gama did not make as many U-turns as the previous Government.