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Dáil
‹ Leaders' Questions

IMF growth forecasts and budget cuts

Summary

Shane Ross challenged the Government’s more optimistic growth forecasts and asked whether weaker growth should lead to deferring planned cuts, arguing that Europe and the troika were failing Ireland. The Taoiseach defended the budget’s pro-business focus and referred to banking-union discussions and hoped-for European assistance.

I note the comments the Taoiseach made to Deputy Adams on growth. My question is about the growth figures he quoted because yesterday the International Monetary Fund, IMF, had some telling things to say about the Irish economy, especially the growth figures that are emerging. Indeed, its forecast and that of the Department of Finance are very different. The IMF says growth will be 1.1% next year while the Department of Finance says it will be 1.5%. That is a marked difference. It underlines the fact that the Government, through the Department of Finance, has consistently overestimated the growth figures and growth forecasts. As a result, we have overestimated our ability to repay the debt incurred as a result of the bailout programme.

Yesterday, the IMF urged the Government not to impose austerity cuts in future budgets because the growth figures were so dismal. That is underlined by the figure of 0.2% for the third quarter quoted by the Taoiseach. It is another disappointing figure. Is it not strange that these high priests of austerity and extraordinarily disciplined lenders are standing back in shock at the fact that the Irish Government is continuing to pursue cuts which they say will be damaging to the economy? Is it not strange, even unique, that the lenders in this situation should be less enthusiastic about the repayments and the austerity being imposed on the Irish people than the Government? In view of the attitude of the IMF, which is critical of the Irish Government for being too austere, is the Taoiseach prepared to give a commitment to the House that in the next budget he will at least consider not proceeding with the severe cuts that have been predicted and announced by the Government for future years?

Comment on this
Enda Kenny The Taoiseach Fine Gael

The quarterly figures speak for themselves. The IMF has been largely supportive of the efforts the Irish Government is making towards an improvement of our public finances and a general improvement in our economic circumstances. Nobody said it would be easy. I note the IMF comment in which it recommends no supplementary budget until 2015, if that is the case. The budget for 2013 has been put through the House. While it is challenging for many people, we would expect that the effort in it to focus on business, job opportunities and the creation of jobs through further investment will grow our economy for the third consecutive year. Consider our position just over 15 months ago. It was very serious. The country had no standing or reputation, was not in a position to raise money, was in a very poor state in terms of inward investment and had a domestic economy that was utterly depressed. The decisions made by the Government to change structures, recapitalise the banks and rebuild our reputation speak for themselves.

Nobody wishes to stand here and say we will have to make further adjustments which will mean cutbacks in services. One cannot cut services beyond a certain point. That is why the Croke Park agreement must be implemented in full and in an accelerated fashion. The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform is negotiating with the trade unions about extra savings to be achieved from that agreement. These are all in the interests of the economy. Ms Lagarde has been very favourable towards Ireland and I note the comments made by the IMF.

The IMF also made the point that a commitment given to this country by our European colleagues must be followed through. That is an important element of hope for our people. The patience they have shown, the challenges they are confronting and the difficulties they encounter must be tempered on the other side through the assistance that was committed to the country on 29 June, when the decision was made in respect of the break between sovereign and bank debt and, on the other hand, the negotiations that have been ongoing about the promissory notes at ECB level.

It is difficult to know what will happen to the global economy. American interests are making strident efforts to deal with the fiscal cliff the country faces before the end of the year. That could see an enormous improvement in the American economy, given its efforts in the energy field, which will speak for themselves, and the new regime in China on the other side of the world. From a European perspective, serious headway has been made in Ireland, a small country, and there are challenges ahead. We need extra support from our European colleagues. I can testify that the efforts made at the European Council meeting last week are focused on improving the situation in European economies, where leaders see that tough decisions must be made because we cannot do this on our own. If our partner colleagues are making headway, it is easier for Ireland as an exporting nation to grow its economy. I cannot provide details of the 2014 budget but we would like to see a situation where Members of the House have the opportunity to discuss the range and spectrum of what is involved at an earlier date.

Comment on this

The issue is very straightforward. I take the point of the Taoiseach, when decoded, about urging Europe to take a softer line and saying that Europe should meet its obligations to Ireland. I hope the Taoiseach agrees Europe is failing to meet its obligations to Ireland, which is what the IMF is implicitly saying. There is obviously a split between the IMF and the rest of the troika. The IMF is saying that because of our failure to grow at the predicted rate, the Government should be prepared to defer the predicted budget cuts forecast and promised for next year. Will we be prepared to take the less austere line of the IMF or are we going to show a greater enthusiasm for austerity than the lenders?

Comment on this
Enda Kenny The Taoiseach Fine Gael

The single supervisory mechanism is part of the process of making the decision, following the decision of 29 June. The decision was endorsed by the Heads of Government at European Council level. Within the ECOFIN group, the Minister for Finance will start discussions on the modalities, mechanics and circumstances that will operate, which will lead to banking union. In parallel circumstances from that point of view, Ireland finding itself in a unique position as a special case will be raised at the group meeting.

The focus in the 2013 budget was unashamedly pro-business and pro-opportunity for small and medium-size enterprises to grow. That is where middle Ireland is working exceptionally hard in the face of demanding challenges and that is where the effort the Government must be seen-----

Comment on this

The Taoiseach could have fooled us.

Comment on this
Enda Kenny The Taoiseach Fine Gael

-----to improve the lot of those who are unemployed, long-term unemployed, on low incomes and in the squeezed middle sector. If it is left as it is, they will never have the opportunity to have greater prosperity and activity at the level of jobs. That is where the focus of the budget has been. Our economy will be built on the backs of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Comment on this

Their broken backs.

Comment on this
Enda Kenny The Taoiseach Fine Gael

That is why the Government did not tax employment by increasing income tax or placing additional taxes on work. People can now plan their lives more clearly. I would like to think that if we can continue economic good progress during 2013, we will get the assistance committed to us from our European colleagues, which will make the country more attractive for investment and job creation. There will be greater access to credit for the small and medium-size enterprises with the consequent job creation prospects for hundreds of thousands of people who deserve jobs. That is where the focus of the Government will be.

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