Jobs, unemployment and investment
Deputy McGrath challenges the Government’s record on job creation, citing persistently high unemployment and asking about using the National Pensions Reserve Fund for strategic investment. The Taoiseach points to falling unemployment, new investment initiatives, job announcements and measures to stabilise public finances.
I am sure we can agree that economic recovery and job creation are inextricably linked. The stability programme update published yesterday by the Department of Finance forecast that unemployment will remain stuck at 14% for the remainder of this year, falling to 13.3% next year and remaining over 12% through to the end of 2016. The Government has again downgraded its growth forecast for this year and the next number of years. The Taoiseach has generously given himself an "A" grade for job creation, and I acknowledge yesterday's very welcome news on the upgrade of the M11 and N7, as well as the jobs announcement this morning at Squarespace, which I know the Taoiseach attended. None of this takes from the fact that the Government is starving the economy of investment. I will tell the Taoiseach why this is so.
Since coming to office the Government has slashed the capital budget by approximately a quarter, and it plans to cut it further next year. On top of that, the Government is not even spending the money budgeted for capital expenditure. For example, last year almost €150 million was pencilled in for capital expenditure but it went unspent. For the first three months of this year, the Government's spend on capital projects is down 27% compared with the same period last year. The tendency has been to slam the brakes on capital spending, particularly early in the year, to make up for cost overruns in other areas of current spending.
The document published yesterday points out that investment in the economy is at historically low levels and does not compare favourably with other countries. In September 2011, the Government announced the establishment of a strategic investment fund to channel commercial investment from the National Pensions Reserve Fund towards productive investment in the Irish economy. Where is the strategic investment fund and when will it take effect? Unemployment is the biggest crisis this country faces and the economy is crying out for investment. Nobody is suggesting that the more than €6 billion left in the National Pensions Reserve Fund should be spent aimlessly, but if there are viable commercial projects to help create jobs and position this economy for recovery, we should carry them out.
Comment on this
I thank Deputy McGrath for his comments and question. The grade was made in respect of the action plan as a document and it sets out the success and progress made by the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation and the strategy for continuing to open the doors for business in the time ahead.
Comment on this
I would love to have the Taoiseach marking my exam paper.
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I am happy the Deputy recognises the impact of the decision by Glanbia yesterday, which will create between 1,500 and 2,000 jobs between construction and family farming from north Cork to Louth, taking advantage of the fact that milk quotas will be gone by 2015. There will also be the opening of upgrades to the M11 and N7 roads. These public private partnerships are complex and technical, and it took quite a long time to get that through the gap, with the contract signed yesterday.
The Department of Finance yesterday published its Irish stability programme April 2013 update, which was the subject of some discussion at the economic affairs committee yesterday. It sets out the official macroeconomic and fiscal forecast for Ireland to 2016, and it is the first time we have gone as far as that. It is the first update of the Government's macroeconomic and fiscal projections since the budget in December last year. The economy returned to growth in 2011 and continued to grow in 2012. The Department of Finance forecast expects the expansion to continue into 2013, with GDP forecast to grow by 1.3% this year. There has been a modest revision in the headline GDP forecast published on budget day and this revision incorporates changes to growth.
On the plus side and in order to keep fiscal targets in line, domestic demand has been revised upwards slightly, which is a help. that is on the back of recent high frequency data, leading to slightly more positive revisions to employment growth for 2013. That is offset by a downward trend in export growth because of difficulties in other countries and the global economy clearly remains weak. On the fiscal front the Department of Finance remains confident that the fiscal strategy to reduce the budget deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2015 is on target. Overall, it is clear we are making progress with the public finances and returning the economy to growth.
The Government has yet to consider the question of the investment fund arising from the National Pensions Reserve Fund and the setting up of the NewERA entity for assessing potential opportunities. It will do that in the period ahead. The Minister for Finance has made it perfectly clear that where there is flexibility for the Government in the preparation for the budget for 2014 and beyond, it would be preferable to put this into investment for infrastructure, whether in school buildings, primary care centres, road developments or retrofitting private residential houses for energy efficiency, where jobs can be created or contractors employed and the consequent spend goes right through the economy.
The Government will focus on that issue.
Our priority must be to deal with the indigenous economy, which means restoring confidence to the Irish economy, thereby creating those jobs where people can see the effect of prudent economic management and effective spending. I share Deputy McGrath's view that investment should go into capital works that will create jobs. That is an issue the Government will focus on as we start to prepare the Estimates and discuss the investment strategy and the most effective use of that money.
The decision of the ECB in respect of Ireland's programme has saved us €20 billion in borrowing over the next number of years and yielded €1 billion in savings, which the Government will consider how best to allocate in the time ahead.
Comment on this
The measure of the Government's performance in job creation is not the grade it gives itself, it is the results. The results at the moment are 14% unemployment. No one in this House is happy with that level of unemployment but I find it difficult to believe that the Government has yet to consider the strategic investment fund and the use of the National Pensions Reserve Fund money to invest in the economy. It was announced in 2011 that such a fund would be established to channel commercial investment from the pension fund into productive sectors of the economy. If the Taoiseach acknowledges that unemployment is the number one crisis in the country, why is that not being matched with action, not an action plan document, but action people can see in their communities? Since September 2011, we still have not seen the legislation to permit that investment. There has been a 27% reduction in capital investment in the economy in the first three months of the year. The Taoiseach must back up his words with action. People want to see money used appropriately, being invested in the economy and creating jobs, bringing about the recovery we all want to see. When is that legislation going to be passed and when will we begin to see that investment filtering throughout the economy?
Comment on this
Unemployment has fallen from 15% to 14%, although I agree that it is unacceptably high.
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Some 90,000 people on the live register are working three days a week. These statistics often do not give an accurate figure for those who are full-time unemployed. The National Pensions Reserve Fund launched an €850 million investment in three different categories in January. That is there to be taken up.
The Government has been dealing with the carnage in the last two years to sort out the promissory note and extend loan maturities, enabling a flattening out of the debt profile. We had come to a point, as the Deputy is well aware, where for the three years 2008 to 2011, every month the private sector lost 7,000 jobs. At least we have stabilised and now 1,000 jobs are being created in the private sector every month as a measure of increasing confidence and greater competitiveness, which has now increased by 20%. The country is becoming more attractive as a location for investment from international sources.
The challenge is to deal with confidence in the indigenous economy. Everyone understands the economic challenge people face. We have set out our fiscal plan and we must deal with the €300 million in savings from within the public sector. The NPRF has made investment funds available since January and the Government will now consider, as we prepare for the Estimates and the budget, how best to use any flexibility we have for direct investment in job creation where people can see the results. I will come back to the Deputy with a date for the legislation but it is important there be a direct injection into the economy where people can see the results in jobs coming through.