Slowdown in employment growth
Catherine Murphy questions the sharp slowdown in job creation and its implications for the budget, while the Taoiseach says one weak quarter should not outweigh 61,000 private-sector jobs created over the previous year.
With the understandable media attention given to the fallout from the election results, the news that employment growth in the economy has dropped significantly has mainly flown under the radar. Employment growth is a key measure of an economy’s health, yet that growth figure fell to just 0.1% during the first quarter of the year, with the creation of just 1,700 jobs in the entire quarter, a long way short of the 1,000 jobs a week that the Government is claiming as its big achievement. The Taoiseach just mentioned it erroneously. The figures compiled by the CSO for the latest quarterly national household survey are worrying for us all and underline just how weak the domestic economy really is. The small and medium-sized enterprise sector has been the poor relation with far too little attention being paid to it. The money being taken from people’s pockets in taxes and charges is directly impacting on small and medium-sized businesses, with employment in sectors such as wholesale and retail down by more than 29% since 2007. To put the matter in context, in the previous quarter the rate of job creation was 16,300, compared to 1,700 in the first quarter of the year. This is a very significant change and it also means that the Government must revise upwards the projected unemployment rate to 12% compared to the predicted rate of 11.8%. That is before we count the underemployed or those not counted because they are not entitled to a welfare payment and the 80,000 participating in schemes. Of the 258,100 officially unemployed, 60.5% are considered to be long-term unemployed, a reduction of just 3% since early 2012, which is a major concern.
Comment on this
Has the Government identified the causes of the slowdown in job creation and, if so, what are they? How will this reduction in jobs growth impact on the budget allocations for the vital Departments of Social Protection and Health which are already in the early stages of planning for the budget? Does this mean that the Government will demand something we should have received already, which is a debt write-down?
Comment on this
I thank the Deputy for her comments. It would be unfair to take the figures for one quarter as a guide for the year. In the past 12 months 61,000 new jobs were confirmed as having been created through the private sector. The growth rate for the year is expected to be 1.7% or 1.8%. I admit that the figures for the last quarter were not as strong as for previous quarters. However, we have had eight consecutive quarters, 24 consecutive months, with a fall in the numbers on the live register, which is pointing in the right direction.
The Minister, Deputy Leo Varadkar, signed the contract for the section of motorway from Gort to Tuam. I know that one of the major contractors is bringing back some 40 Irish engineers from Australia to work on these projects. The Government's stimulus package for school project bundles, Grangegorman and other infrastructure developments is important. There is also the employment aspect of Irish Water in terms of the installation of meters and infrastructure. These all represent opportunities to grow from where we are, having lost 300,000 jobs in the three years prior to 2011.
The medium-term strategy that I mentioned points out that we want to create 100,000 net new jobs by 2016 and have all those jobs lost restored by 2020. That is why the Government has introduced a particular strategy for the construction sector. We need to introduce new planning legislation to give effect to elements of it. The Minister of State, Deputy Jan O'Sullivan, announced in the €100 million allocation for social housing the elements to deal with homelessness, including the refitting of 2,700 units that have been empty and boarded up for some time. These are all opportunities not only to provide a social response but also employment.
The line of investment into the country is very strong. The focus this year is on the construction sector, services and retail. There is a big Government emphasis on credit for small business and access by small business to opportunities to expand and increase employment. That is why all of the local enterprise offices have been opened within each local authority area, with specific information, assistance and expertise for entrepreneurs. That is why there is a major drive to ensure young people in secondary school and college have an understanding of how easy it is to form a company and create opportunities to engage in business.
Legislation relating to financial assistance from the German state bank, KfW, which was offered last year, is currently going through. This will form part of the strategic investment programme, the level of funding available under which will rise to €4 billion. Most of this is for small businesses and it will be allocated under specific conditions. This is an area which is extremely important in the context of the economy and the creation of jobs into the future. As such, it is a central focus of the Government.
In the context of forthcoming Cabinet meetings, the Minister of State, Deputy Jan O'Sullivan, will respond in respect of how that construction strategy is being followed through. It is a major primer in terms of employment numbers and in the context of levels of expenditure and confidence throughout the economy. The signs are in many locations throughout the country that this strategy is moving us very strongly in the right direction. I admit that there are still too many people who are unemployed and that difficulties remain in respect of access to credit, a matter with which we are dealing. We must leverage more in the context of what we know we can obtain. The construction, services and retail sectors are the focus of Government this year. We are aware that matters have been very sensitive in the case of retail and that a sufficient contribution has not been made in the case of construction.
Comment on this
I accept the point that there was substantial job growth during the previous four quarters. However, the reversal in the first quarter of this year is a really serious cause for concern. The CSO figures for last year come with a major health warning, particularly when one considers the number of construction workers - in the region of 20,000 - who redesignated themselves as farmers. Many of the jobs referred to in the figures for last year are representative of a statistical anomaly. They are not real jobs, and this must be factored in. It is vital that we obtain a true picture with regard to what is happening.
The Taoiseach is quite right when he states that the construction sector is significant. In addition, a huge number of people are long-term unemployed at a time when we are having a major housing crisis. One thing we could do in this regard would be to leverage the massive funds available from the European Investment Bank. Dr. Michelle Norris informed the Joint Committee on Environment, Culture and the Gaeltacht that in the region of €500 million is available for social housing and that we have not leveraged this.