Summer economic statement
Deputy Howlin criticised the publication of the summer economic statement without parliamentary consultation and questioned the limited provision for tax relief, capital spending and infrastructure. The Taoiseach outlined the Government’s fiscal rules, spending-and-tax balance and promised House and committee discussions before the 2017 budget.
Over six weeks ago, this Government came to office amid a flurry of talk and promises of new politics. Today, we see the publication of the summer economic statement. In fact, I understand in five minutes' time the Minister for Finance and the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform will make that announcement outside the House. It has been published without any consultation with the Members of this House. Indeed, Members of the House got to read in this morning's newspapers that €300 million is to be made available for additional tax cuts and €600 million, apparently, to be devoted to additional expenditure next year. According to the newspapers this morning, a total of €900 million, therefore, is to be made available in what amounts to the determined fiscal space, a sum which the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has already described today as "contractionary".
We will have a contraction in our economy next year, according to the projections, or at least those that we read about in the newspapers. There is a train of thought among economists these days that because of the experiences of the past while, we should be very risk averse and that amounts apparently to prudence. An aversion to risk must not put at risk the very factors that we need to invest in our economy, if we are to continue to grow and continue to provide jobs for our people. That approach disregards the legitimate demands of the public that an improving economy will impact on their quality of life. We argued in the last election that a ratio of at least 2:1 should be allocated between investment and tax reductions.
The ratio should probably be more than that to deliver what we need, such as smaller classes, a functioning health system, indexation of welfare payments and so on.
There is a second aspect of today's coverage in the newspapers that also troubles me. We read today that the Government intends to press ahead with the idea of a rainy day fund. So when we have an urgent need for investment in infrastructure - whether it be broadband, schools, health services or roads - apparently the Government will effectively put money on deposit. Even if it could be used to pay down debt, it would be more reasonable than simply leaving money on deposit.
I have two questions for the Taoiseach. Does he accept that investment in urgently needed infrastructure makes much more sense than simply creating this so-called rainy day fund, which, in effect, is leaving money unused on deposit with the Central Bank? How does he propose to have cross-party buy-in to the budgetary process if fundamental questions about the fiscal space and the total sums to be deployed are made without consultation with anybody in the House?
Comment on this
Deputy Howlin was an esteemed member of a Government that had to make very difficult decisions about changing the direction of the country and bringing it back from an unprecedented recession. He asked two questions. There are five specific commitments in the programme for Government in respect of the economic opportunity that lies ahead. The first is to meet the domestic and EU fiscal rules and the summer statement sets out how that will happen. The nominal budget will be balanced in 2018. Second, there should be at least a split of 2:1 between spending and tax, and the projections are that this ratio is to be maintained each year. The third is that there would be a spend of at least an additional €6.75 billion in delivering additional public services by 2021, with current expenditure in that year projected to be 6.75% higher than 2016. The fourth commitment is an additional €4 billion in Exchequer capital investment up to 2021. We would comply with and exceed the latter by making use of the favourable treatment of capital in the rules so that capital will increase by just over €5 billion. The fifth commitment is the establishment of a rainy day fund. The Ministers responsible for both finance and public expenditure and reform have pointed out that €1 billion per year will go to the fund in the period 2019 to 2021, with a commitment to bring forward proposals to the Oireachtas for discussion on that. It would be a matter for the Government of the day as to whether that should continue beyond 2021 and how it should be used, depending on the circumstances that apply internationally or from an economic perspective.
The total amount available to the Government over the five years is estimated to be a cumulative €11.3 billion. Critically, the space for 2017 has increased to €1 billion, with €1.2 billion available in 2018. It means the Government can bring forward some spending for 2017 for the kind of issues mentioned by the Deputy, including infrastructure and social issues, that was not available even three months ago. From 2019 to 2021, the increase will be of the order of €3 billion per annum, arising after the balancing of the budget in 2018. This means the additional capital for 2017 will be €250 million, for 2018 it will be €750 million, for 2019 it will be €1.18 billion, for 2020 it will be €1.38 billion and for 2021 it will be €1.59 billion. That is a cumulative €5.14 billion over the period. This means that many of the priority issues which must be addressed can be brought forward somewhat, as there will be an additional €250 million available in 2017 that was not available in figures from just a few months ago.
Obviously, there is a space here and the Minister pointed out how the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council would be involved in discussions about the formation of a rainy day fund, how it might be used and what it would be used for and the opportunities to make proposals in that regard.
Comment on this
I asked about next year's budget. In the programme for Government, we were promised a new budgetary architecture. How can there be consultation or an agreement in respect of next year's budget if its parameters are determined without consultation with anybody?
It was always envisaged that there would be a review of capital spend next year. The figures set out by the Taoiseach are very parsimonious in terms of the capacity of the economy to deal with real infrastructural deficits in a way that drives further job creation.
In relation to the rainy day fund, the difference between gross and net debt is approximately 10% of GDP. We have notionally bank shares and so on that we will be able to sell, which means a sum of money will be available to the State to invest if we wish. Surely it makes more sense to set up an ambitious capital programme for the next few years to address issues like broadband and the third level deficit and to make a significant spend in terms of education, finishing our road network and investing in health care and child care facilities. Would that not be the wise way to invest money, rather than talking about some rainy day fund?
Comment on this
There are four hours allocated for the summer economic statements in the House on Thursday. The national dialogue will take place next week and the committees of the House will do their business on the preparation for the budget running into October. Regarding expenditure for 2017, there is a net amount of €1 billion extra, with expenditure of €670 million as against taxation of €330 million. The figures for 2018 are €0.79 billion and €0.39 billion. This complies with the projections for a 2:1 ratio, which I outlined earlier.
It is true that when Deputy Howlin was in government we did not have the capital to invest in those very necessary facilities. That situation has improved somewhat and it means that for next year, 2017, there is an extra €250 million available, which is a great deal of money, but a small amount in terms of the overall budget. Some of those projects can be brought forward. As Deputy Howlin is aware, the Government has focused on health and housing as two major priorities. There are, of course, others, including education, broadband and other such areas. There are four hours on Thursday for a debate and then we will have the national economic dialogue next week.