Brexit and budget preparedness
Deputy Micheál Martin criticises the budget as tokenistic on Brexit and challenges the Taoiseach on currency assumptions and business supports. The Taoiseach says Brexit is the major economic challenge, outlines EU engagement and credit supports, and says the Government is focused on protecting the economy and peace process.
Without question, one of the most disappointing aspects of yesterday's budget from a strategic perspective was the lack of any substantial response to the challenges of Brexit. What we were presented with was a sheet entitled Getting Ireland Brexit Ready which amounted to mere tokenism and was quite pathetic in itself. All of the measures on it would have happened anyway. Some were in place in advance of any Brexit referendum. It is really extraordinary because people were promised in advance that this would be a Brexit-proofed budget. However, the reality is that it is empty with regard to Brexit.
I put it to the Taoiseach that the Government should be planning for a hard Brexit. That should be the priority rather than praying and wishing for a soft Brexit and hoping that everything will be alright on the night. The base scenario in the budget document is that the Government is assuming an exchange rate of 85p to the euro next year. Yesterday, the exchange rate was 91p to the euro. Now, the Taoiseach is betting or assuming that sterling will strengthen by more than 6% next year. It seems to me an extraordinary bet or gamble to make.
In addition to that, the Department of Foreign Affairs has seen no increase in its envelope. What Brexit opens up for us are huge challenges and, yes, some opportunities. However, trade diversification has to be won through the search for new markets and the expansion of the international footprint for Ireland to make sure that we can secure those new markets. We are hugely dependent on the British market, particularly Irish-owned companies and food and agricultural companies. Farming is going through a terrible crisis at the moment, from grain, to beef, to dairy and across the board. There is nothing substantial happening in relation to that to prepare for the even further challenges that await as a result of the British decision to leave the European Union.
Likewise, Bord Bia, Enterprise Ireland, the IDA and so on are not, in my opinion, being adequately resourced to pursue ambitious targets around re-orientating the Irish economic effort internationally as a result of Brexit, which we will have to do. We will have to find and develop new markets. We will also have to attract inward investment. I know the IDA is working to attract financial services from Britain. We also have the challenge of Irish companies that may want to relocate to the UK, for example, to secure markets there. These are very real issues that have not been addressed. The fundamental issue is the real and immediate issue of the currency crisis. IBEC and others have said that there should be contingency provision for businesses here around the devaluation of sterling and its impact on Irish companies and their export performance. Will such a contingency provision be put in place?
Comment on this
This is probably the greatest economic challenge facing not just Ireland but the EU in the last 50 years. The decision made by the electorate in the UK has brought about a situation of confusion, lack of certainty, great concern, anxiety and currency fluctuation that is impacting on business here and elsewhere. Our priorities are to look after the interests of our citizens, look after the interests of Ireland's economy, look after the relationship we have with both Northern Ireland and the UK, including the peace process, and look after our place in Europe for the future. Clearly, the decision has been followed by quite a number of comments from those who are dealing on behalf of the British Government on the question of Brexit and the situation that has changed from day to day. I note that this morning the Prime Minister indicated that there will be an opportunity to discuss the matter in the House of Commons and obviously statements made abroad have been changed, let me put it that way.
For us here, the immediate concern is the consequence of the devaluation of sterling against the euro and the difficulties that is causing for Irish businesses in terms of exports due to rising costs. This budget has included a number of issues that refer to Brexit. Obviously, there are new resources for the enterprise agencies. There are 50 new people to join Enterprise Ireland. I was in the RDS just last week with 140 of the people from abroad who have come back to talk about their potential sales for new markets and diversification into places like the United States, Canada or other areas in the EU.
The Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Deputy Creed, is rolling out a €150 million low-interest loan for farmers with cashflow and new business supports to help them. Quite a significant extent of our exports into Britain is from the agri-sector. There is an agrifood package of tax measures and we have maintained the strong support evident here in Ireland for the hospitality sector since the VAT rate was reduced from 13.5% to 9%. We have also included the extension of the reduction on capital gains tax for entrepreneurs. Most of those are small business in Ireland with very little profit margins. They are mostly outside the Dublin region. That scheme has been extended, as has the foreign earnings deduction for businesses in which people have to travel abroad in the context of their work to look for new markets. There is also an extension to the special assignee situation that applies to companies bringing in experts with particular skills. The-----
Comment on this
There is a whole lot more, a Cheann Comhairle. Obviously, the issue that Deputy Martin has raised is one that I will continue to brief Opposition leaders on as the case may be. Today I will meet Michel Barnier who is coming here on behalf of the European Commission. I point out to the House that irrespective of the work that the Commission will do here, it will be the EU Council - the elected leaders and heads of government - that will oversee the political decisions arising from Brexit.
Comment on this
The Taoiseach did not answer the core question of currency. The budget failed in properly addressing the Brexit issue. Any commentary on the budget in relation to Brexit is negative in opinion outside of this House and across the board. The budget is assuming a base scenario for next year of 85p sterling to the euro. Is the Taoiseach satisfied that is a solid basis on which to plan the economy for the next 12 months? I believe that is a very foolish gamble indeed. All of the measures the Taoiseach has outlined would have happened independent of Brexit. Most of them were in place prior to the Brexit referendum. All of them, in fact, were in place in one part or another in terms of the base schemes. Nothing substantial happened yesterday, which was a huge surprise to many people who expected such a package. Fundamentally, is the Government going to provide a currency crisis package for Irish industry?
That is the key question, because that is happening right now. It is not something that we have to plan for; it is actually occurring right now. We know it from the mushroom industry and horticulture generally. The impact is very real. It has resulted in a loss of jobs. A currency crisis package should have been provided for in yesterday's budget. What is the Government's position on it? Will the Taoiseach answer the question about the 85p sterling to one euro exchange rate? Is that the base scenario the Government is sticking with for the next 12 months, as outlined in the budget documents?
Comment on this
The Department of Finance paper did indicate that, and clearly that was not the rate sterling was operating at yesterday. Personnel from the Department of Finance, the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation and the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland have been in Brussels to make an arrangement for credit at long-term, low interest rates for businesses that will suffer here and €1 million was ring-fenced for it in yesterday's budget.
Deputy Martin asks what is the Brexit issue. Is it a hard or a soft Border? Is it the situation that the United Kingdom wants access to the Single Market? I understand that today there are comments that it may wish to contribute to join that market. This situation is quite fluid until the Prime Minister moves Article 50. Since long before the Brexit vote, we have had a situation where we have been planning for contingencies that may or may not arise. I explained this to Deputy Martin and the other leaders already and will do so again.
We are conscious that currency fluctuations may have a serious impact on businesses here. We have had evidence of it already.
Comment on this
That is why the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine is making available €150 million in low-interest credit facilities for those in the agrisector who have exports to Britain, of which there are many with a multi-billion operation. However, we have to examine the prospect and possibility of putting together longer term low-interest facilities and our people are working on it. The sterling rate may vary depending on the situation that arises. Every time a comment has been made about Brexit, sterling has fluctuated and it has impacted on us here.