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Dáil
‹ Leaders' Questions

National debt and interest payments

Summary

Deputy Broughan raises concern about the scale of national debt and the heavy refinancing burden due in 2018-2020, arguing interest costs still crowd out spending on services. The Tánaiste defends the NTMA and Government borrowing strategy, saying restored credibility has cut borrowing costs sharply and allowed continued investment while managing debt prudently.

Earlier we discussed the summer economic statements, but perhaps the biggest challenge facing the country is the massive size of Ireland's national debt and the huge chimney stacks of debt, as they are called, which must be refinanced between 2018 and 2020. The 2016 National Treasury Management Agency, NTMA, annual report and the annual report on public debt in Ireland by the Department of Finance make it clear that the national debt is the elephant in the room of the national finances. At the end of 2016, general Government debt stood at €201 billion, which represents between €42,000 and €46,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. The national debt represented 274% of general Government revenue and was nearly 250% of the national wage bill. By these measures Ireland remains one of the most indebted countries in the world alongside Japan, Portugal and Greece. Indeed, on the new reference point of GNI* our national debt is 100%.

The stacks of debt from the crash years must be refinanced in 2018 to 2020 when five benchmark bonds are due to mature. The total balance outstanding on these bonds is currently more than €42 billion. The majority of the bilateral loans received from the UK, Sweden and Denmark after the crash also mature over the same period, so the total refinancing amount is more than €46 billion. Many economists believe that the huge refinancing in 2018 to 2020 carries terrible risks given the emerging fiscal unknowns in this country. For example, Professor Colm Fitzgerald of the school of mathematics and statistics in University College Dublin, UCD, wants the Government and the NTMA to take immediate action to refinance the €50 billion bonds maturing in the next three years now that bond yields are low but are expected to rise. He and other concerned citizens refer to warnings given in 2006 and 2007 by people such as Professor Morgan Kelly.

Ireland is moving into an era of great uncertainty. Almost every day we are startled by another emerging impact of Brexit, as happened recently with fisheries. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, has rightly warned of the vulnerability of corporation tax receipts. They now account for 15% of our tax, which is twice the EU average. It is somewhat reminiscent of stamp duties before 2008. Most of all, Professor Fitzgerald and other academic economists are worried about the growing asset price bubble being driven by the quantitative easing, QE, programme of the European Central Bank since March 2015. That programme has been tapered down to €60 billion per month and is expected to end in spring 2018. Quantitative easing is printing money primarily to benefit the wealthy in society, those with bonds and other assets whose prices increase. That leads to bubbles and suffering for ordinary citizens, such as people trying to buy houses. However, the double whammy of QE is that it will be followed, as night follows day, with quantitative tightening, as is happening in the United States, and higher interest rates.

Will the Government encourage or direct the NTMA to refinance those stacks of debt, amounting to more than €46 billion or a quarter of the total debt, as urgently as possible while interest rates are low and given the worrying risks in the external economic environment?

Comment on this

I ask the Deputy to acknowledge the progress that has been made. He did not support many of the policies that got us to the point where our economy is now doing so well and where we have seen a drop-----

Comment on this

I opposed the bank guarantee that got us into this and which was supported by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

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-----in unemployment from 15% to 6%. The NTMA is an extremely professional body. It has managed us through the crisis and overseen a situation where we have moved from being charged interest rates of 14% to one where they are down to 1%. I have confidence in it to continue to manage the debt. That the economy is in the current position is extremely important in terms of the rates at which we can borrow. It means we can continue to have a balanced approach to dealing with our debt, which we must do. The Deputy regularly calls for investment in infrastructure and our social services. We must also do that. We must achieve a balance between managing the debt and getting the debt-to-GDP ratio down and continuing the investment that is so necessary. That is the approach the Government is taking. The Minister for Finance, Deputy Donohoe, made that clear yesterday when speaking on the summer economic statement, which sets out a practical approach for the careful and prudent management of our economy.

At the same time, it will ensure we invest in the services we need, negotiate pay agreements that are manageable and affordable and, above all, make the kind of decisions that ensure citizens have a good quality of life because we have good transport infrastructure and good health, education and other services. Just this week, we made a decision to invest in more special needs assistants in schools. We can make this type of decision because we have the right approach to managing the economy and the national debt and we are ensuring we can continue to invest.

Comment on this

The Tánaiste did not remotely answer the question. The State has spent more than €40 billion on interest repayments since the crisis of 2008-09, which Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil got us into. Even this year, we will spend €7 billion on interest payments, which is almost as much as the budget of the Department of Education and Skills. We cannot even discuss this issue because this money goes straight to the Central Fund.

I am well aware of the efforts being made by the National Treasury Management Agency, NTMA, to reduce risks to Ireland in refinancing the 2018-20 bonds. In its 2016 report, a copy of which I have before me, the NTMA refers to locking in low interest rates and longer maturities while interest rates remain at historically low levels. The agency has reduced the global figure from approximately €70 billion to approximately €46 billion and last year, it issued the country's first 100-year bond. It also has €21 billion in the kitty. Just a few weeks ago, Mr. Conor O'Kelly, the NTMA's chief executive officer, and Mr. Frank O'Connor, its director of funding, visited Leinster House to brief me extensively on this matter.

Professor Colm Fitzgerald and others still fear the Government and NTMA are taking too much of an accounting rather than actuarial approach to the national debt. Asset prices have increased fuelled by quantitative easing and low interest rates, while fiscal shocks are likely when the money pump is switched off. No one can predict the impact of the unstable Trump Presidency. If Britain leaves the European Union in March 2019, the economy will be in some danger. We could be about to enter a perfect fiscal storm. Some economists believe there is a danger of a return of the troika. Will the Tánaiste ask the Taoiseach and Minister for Finance to meet representatives of the National Treasury Management Agency to encourage the agency to move fast to refinance our debt in the 2018-20 period? The Minister for Education and Skills, Deputy Bruton, should note that this is a serious matter because the next Government will have to deal with it.

Comment on this

We had to borrow in recent years because we wanted to protect our investment in public services, which is what the Deputy and all other Deputies would have wanted.

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The Fine Gael Party voted to slash public services when a few of us stood alone. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil got us into this and destroyed our public services.

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Most Deputies support borrowing to continue the investment during a period of crisis.

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The Tánaiste talks about section 39 bodies. Her Government is responsible for getting us into this mess.

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The important point is that we were able to borrow at manageable interest rates. As a result of Government action and because our reputation has been restored, we have been able to borrow at rates that are sustainable, having declined from 14% to 1%. The Deputy should also recognise that the unemployment rate has decreased from 15% to 6%, which makes a difference to his constituents who want public services maintained. The prudent management of the economy has allowed us to do that.

Comment on this