Business people from Border regions came to the Oireachtas yesterday to tell us how Brexit is affecting them. One tourism company in Wicklow said it has cut its UK visitor forecasts in half and believes that Brexit has already cost several thousand jobs in the industry. A sheep and beef farmer from Fermanagh told us that by the time the UK leaves the EU, he will have relocated his business to within the EU. A transport operator from Antrim said that if the talks proceed to phase two, which is on the future relationship, without the Border being sorted, he will have to pull his business out of Northern Ireland.

We are all aware that these negotiations are delicate and ongoing and we welcome agreement in principle on areas like the common travel area. However, there has been little progress on the question of Northern Ireland and the Border. It has been agreed by all of us, the Taoiseach, Prime Minister May and Michel Barnier that there cannot under any circumstances be a return to the Border of the past yet the UK Government insists that Northern Ireland will leave the Single Market and the customs union, will not have a unique or special status and will not have equivalence of regulations for all products. As the Minister is aware, a European Commission paper leaked just a few days ago stated that in the opinion of the Commission, what the UK Government is insisting on for Northern Ireland will lead inevitably to border controls and a hard border. Many other experts have reached the same conclusion.

The greatest influence Ireland has in the Brexit talks is on whether sufficient progress has been made on the question of Ireland and the Border to allow the Brexit talks move to phase two, which involves talks about a future trading relationship. At the European Council meeting in October, the Irish Government's position was that insufficient progress had been made on the Irish question to allow the talks to proceed. However, just last week, the Taoiseach stated that he now believes that the talks can move to phase two in December. It is unclear what additional progress has been made on the Border to change the Government's position on this critical issue - so much so that just a few days after the Taoiseach made his statement, Michel Barnier warned that EU member states need to start preparing for a collapse of the Brexit talks.

For many business people preparing for Brexit on both sides of the Border, the Irish Government's position is unclear. Does the Irish Government still believe that the Brexit talks are likely to move to phase two in December? If that is the position of the Irish Government, could the Minister for Education and Skills let us know the progress that has been made since the October summit that has changed the Government's position? If that is no longer the position, could the Minister outline for us even at a high level what sufficient progress on the Border would look like for the Government to accept that sufficient progress has been made?

I thank the Deputy for raising this question. The Taoiseach is flying to Sweden today for an EU summit. He will be meeting with other European colleagues and will hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister May. The position of the Irish Government remains unchanged. We believe that there must a clear roadmap to achieve what has been announced as the objective of all parties, which is no return to a hard border, before we can proceed to the next stage. This has been an agreed approach by the UK, the EU and ourselves so there is clearly a view of what we need to achieve here. The Irish Government's view is very clear. We need to see a roadmap to deliver that. As the Deputy rightly said, a number of the pronouncements by politicians in the UK are inconsistent with achieving that so, clearly, the Irish Government's position is that we need a clear roadmap before we move to the next stage.

Of course, we are conscious that the next stage is vitally important to the very businesses described by the Deputy in his initial comments. We need long-term stable trading arrangements with the UK but we are very clear that before we move to the next stage, which would be to enter into the detailed negotiations on what form those trading relations should take, it is important that a satisfactory roadmap is put in place for the Border issue, which is one of the three issues that must be dealt with before progressing to the next stage. That remains the Irish Government's position. Both the Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade have been very clear in articulating that to colleagues.

Part of the concern businesses have is that this statement that we need to see a road map is very vague. While I take the Minister at his word that the Irish Government's position has not changed, to the businesses and to many of us looking on at the negotiations, it appears that the Irish Government's position did change because in October, the position was that insufficient progress had been made but just last week the Taoiseach said he now expected the talks to move on to phase two in December, which suggests that he believes sufficient progress would be made. Does the Minister agree with the European Commission's position that should the UK insist on leaving the customs union and the Single Market, it is inevitable that there would be border controls and as such, on the basis that we are all agreed that there can be no border controls, is it the Irish Government's position that if the UK in December insists that it is still going to leave the Single Market and the customs union, the Irish Government will at that point deem that insufficient progress has been made?

The Deputy will be aware that if the Taoiseach, the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade or I sought to answer a set of hypothetical questions about what the British might do and what we might do in return, it would not be to our advantage in a very delicate situation like this. It is not for us to play with scenarios and suggest that we would settle for something less than what has been set out from the outset. This is very clear. This is one of the issues that needs to be resolved to the satisfaction of both sides before we move to the next stage. I do not think it would serve those very business interests for which the Deputy rightly expressed concern if Ireland was to outline a set of possible solutions or insist that the UK has this or that piece in its jigsaw. We need to see what the British come forward with. They have pledged very clearly that they want no return to the Border and we clearly want no return to a Border. We must show that the approach that the UK and the EU will be taking before we move to the next stage is consistent with that. While I can understand that people would like to see what would happen if this or that happened, I do not think it is in our interests to articulate alternatives of that nature in public.