Brexit worst-case preparations
Deputy Howlin raised ESRI warnings about the cost of a hard Brexit and queried the Government's preparations and secrecy around Departmental planning. The Tánaiste said the Government is planning for worst-case scenarios while negotiating for a better outcome, and offered briefings to parties.
Research published this week by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, showed that a hard Brexit would cost Irish people up to €1,400 per year, with lower income groups being most severely hit. The research is timely and shows the importance of east-west trade and the impact tariffs would have on food imports into this country, an area on which we have not focused greatly. There is still no certainty on how the backstop, with which I will not deal today, will function, or legal clarity in advance of the European Council. It has been reported that each Department has been instructed by the Government to prepare contingency plans and emergency legislation to deal with a hard Brexit. Has that been done? Will the Government publish the contingency plans and the heads of legislation being prepared in each Department to deal with a hard Brexit?
Comment on this
As regards the ESRI report, such reports are helpful, but they must also be put in context. The ESRI looked at a worst case scenario and outlined the possible cost to the citizens of Ireland.
Comment on this
The Government is doing so. We are planning, as we must, for a worst case scenario, but we are also negotiating on a best case scenario. It is important that we do not allow a narrative to develop that this is the likely outcome of Brexit because that is not the case.
Comment on this
We all buy insurance, but we do not expect to become ill.
Comment on this
We must ensure we will prepare for all scenarios, as we are doing. We have asked all Departments to give us feedback on the preparations they believe are necessary to deal with the worst case scenarios. I am unsure if it would be helpful to publish that feedback which I have not yet read, but I am happy to brief other political parties on it. We must make a judgment call on what is helpful to be put in the public domain and what will contribute to a negotiating strategy for Ireland. I will happily tease through the issues in more detail at the stakeholders' forum or elsewhere with Members, if they so wish. We have published a series of over 20 reports. There is, therefore, no shortage of information available to the public. We must consider the details of the internal preparations being made by the Government because we have only just received the feedback from Departments and more work must be carried out by some Departments in that regard.