Budget priorities and economic policy
Brendan Howlin criticised the Government's fiscal stance, arguing that recklessness and underinvestment were both damaging and that debate on national statistics was being constrained. The Taoiseach defended open budget discussion, cited the national economic dialogue, explained why GDP can mislead, and argued that jobs, wages, and planned capital spending showed the economy was moving in the right direction.
There are two ways a Government can damage the economy - reckless spending and failure to invest, both of which are ruinous. The doctrine of the Minister for Finance, Deputy Donohoe, has been to circle the wagons around the national finances and to limit debate by not publishing the full range of national statistics. For example, because the Minister has decided to pursue his own so-called fiscal stance, the objective data on Ireland's fiscal space are no longer being published.
I accept we need to lower the national debt, but the best way to do that is by putting in place the conditions for the future growth of the economy, as the Labour Party has repeatedly done.
We agree with the need to roll out infrastructure in transport, water and electricity in order that businesses can depend on them and expand. There will be an equally important need to invest in our social infrastructure. Investing in people strengthens our economy. We need to boost our investment in education at all levels in order that workers are more productive and in order that every citizen of Ireland has the chance to fulfil his or her own full potential. Social investment has a double pay-off. It gives people a better quality of life and, when done strategically, it also boosts the future growth potential of the economy. The failure to expand Ireland's social infrastructure, including affordable housing, childcare and public transport, will hold back the future economy. We cannot afford to not make these investments. We need to end the permanent crisis in housing in order that workers can afford to take up jobs and work in our towns and cities. A recent report showed a household now needs to be in the top 10% of income in order to afford the median house price in Dublin. That is unsustainable. A person off work for a week waiting for a health appointment represents a blow to the economy. A person forced to commute 90 minutes each way due to the price of houses is a loss to our economy. We know businesses need to flock to where the physical infrastructure is the best and most robust. The economy will never grow to the same extent across the country as a whole unless we put in place the infrastructure to make investing outside our larger cities more attractive. Failing to make the necessary strategic decisions now is not fiscal prudence; it is a failure to meet the obvious needs of our people. It will have an obvious detrimental impact on our economy.
The Taoiseach has often referred to the lost decade. He is in danger of making the loss permanent. Is it not time now for economic debate in the House to be open and focused on the needs of all our people rather than, as it seems from the Taoiseach's initial responses to Deputy Micheál Martin, on using the budget to try to box political parties into positions before an impending general election?
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The Government is very interested in and very welcoming of an open debate on budget priorities. I came from the national economic dialogue this morning in Dublin Castle where Government is engaging with unions, employers, NGOs, charities and academic experts. It will run all day today and tomorrow and Cabinet Ministers will attend it over the next two days. It is an initiative Deputy Howlin was involved in establishing when he was Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. It is one worth continuing because we want an open dialogue on budget priorities. That is exactly what is happening.
Where I differ with Deputy Howlin is I think it should be obvious to everyone that the best way to reduce debt is first to stop borrowing and after that to run a surplus and run some of that surplus to pay down the debt. The truth is we are still borrowing. This year we will spend more than we raise in taxation. Even next year, where we are targeting a budget deficit of 0.1% of GDP, we will still spend more than we raise in taxation. That is not sustainable. We are in a situation in which the economy is growing strongly and where we are heading for full employment. We should, like other small countries such as the Nordic countries, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, which are doing well economically, be getting to the point where we are running a surplus. Our national debt is falling as a percentage of GDP but it needs to fall faster. When we went into the last financial crisis just over ten years ago, our national debt was €15,000 per person. Today it is €45,000 per person. That means that ten or 15 years after the financial crisis our national debt per head is three times what it was back in 2007. That is a major risk. We have an opportunity now to break the boom-bust cycle, not to repeat the mistakes of the past and not to sign up to the philosophy of "When I have it, I spend it and when I do not, I borrow it." We have an opportunity now to break the cycle of boom and bust and not to repeat the mistakes of the past. In our view that means balancing the budget next year, running a deficit of roughly 0.1% of GDP, and in the year after that running to a surplus and using that to pay down our debt so if we ever enter another financial crisis, downturn or recession, we will not have to make the kind of painful decisions that were made during the lost decade I spoke about. It may not be politically popular. I am sure there are way more votes in cutting taxes and ramping up spending but we will do the right thing because we are much more interested in the next generation than we are in the next election.
I reassure the Deputy that we have set out a plan to invest €116 billion over the next ten years in our public infrastructure, healthcare, housing, tackling climate change, new schools and social infrastructure which we both agree is so important. We are not waiting for ten years to do it. If we compare this period with the same period last year, there has been an 18% increase in capital spending. That is 18% more spent on our public infrastructure. Next year we will increase it by another 25%, going from a country that is a low spender on public infrastructure to one of the highest spenders in public infrastructure in the coming years.
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The Taoiseach did exactly what I expected him to do. It is unfortunate. He did not answer the question and embrace the real economic needs of our people. He gave what is now becoming his stock election speech that Fine Gael is prudent and everybody else is profligate. Meanwhile, look at the true economy. The Taoiseach talks about GDP. We can argue about whether GDP is appropriate but the Taoiseach used the figure. We are now in the medium-50s in terms of our indebtedness. We now have the capacity to address the big social deficits we have in education and health and elsewhere to allow our economy to grow. If the economy grows, the level of debt falls. It is much more prudent to grow the economy and allow everybody to fulfil their full capacity rather than to constrain growth by not investing in our people. That is the debate I am asking for.
The Taoiseach talks about tax cuts. We are not talking about tax cuts. We opposed them last year. We agree with the ESRI that there is no room in our economy to cut taxes when we have so many social deficits to address. That is not the Taoiseach's policy. He has promised to cut taxes as he did last year. We say now that we have an historic opportunity to build a social infrastructure that meets the needs of the people who made such sacrifices to get our economy in the shape it is in today.
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-----because of our very large multinational sector. The way it accounts for intellectual property and other things our GDP makes our economy seem much bigger than it really is. The best way to look at debt and spending-----
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-----is to take the total amount we spend and divide it by the number of people in the country. It is a very simple and common-sense calculation - how much we spend divided by the number of people in the country per head or per capita, whatever term one wants to use. The same thing applies to debt. When we take our national debt and divide it by the number of people in the country we have one of the highest national debts per capita in the western world. That is a real risk and we need to be wise to it. We should not be dismissive of it.
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Talk about shamrock economics or leprechaun economics.
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It is jobs. Unemployment is now one third of what it was seven years ago. It is 5.3%. Long-term unemployment is down to 2%. We are approaching full employment. What do we want as well as jobs? We want good jobs.
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We want jobs that pay well. Wages are increasing again. Poverty and deprivation are falling. Income inequality is narrowing.
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And the Taoiseach is becoming an economist.
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All of these things are going in the right direction. There is one thing I agree with the Deputy on. We need to invest in our public infrastructure in the years ahead. That is why we have precommitted to increasing capital spending next year. There will be a €1.5 billion increase in capital spending next year.