We use Google Analytics to see which pages are read and how the site is used, so we know what to improve. This only runs if you accept. See our privacy notice for details.

Dáil
‹ Ceisteanna ó Cheannairí - Leaders' Questions

Brexit withdrawal and contingency plans

Summary

Deputy Martin challenges the Taoiseach on the fallout from Westminster, urging publication of the central Brexit scenario and better public engagement. The Taoiseach defends the withdrawal deal, says no single document exists, notes stakeholder sharing, and stresses that only the UK can remove the threat of no deal.

Yesterday people were riveted by the extraordinary scenes in Westminster Parliament as the British Prime Minster, Theresa May, deferred a vote on the Brexit withdrawal treaty because, in simple terms, it was clear she faced an overwhelming rejection of the treaty by parliament. To be fair to her, in her speech she made it clear that she did not seek to renegotiate the backstop or the UK-wide customs union she had sought in the first instance but rather she was seeking reassurance and clarity as to when or if ever it would have to come into play. Overall, however, the impact of yesterday's decision by the Prime Minister has been to create greater uncertainty and political instability, particularly uncertainty as to the future and the particular nature of Brexit that will ultimately emerge.

While many seasoned commentators, and I include myself among them, felt at the end of the day that a no-deal Brexit would not emerge, I believe we can no longer be certain of that. The scale of the opposition to the deal yesterday was quite significant in itself. Therefore, a significant period of political and economic instability and uncertainty lies ahead. It is in that context that we as a country must be prepared for any eventuality. We have been saying for quite some time that it is our view, in accordance with Government data and information, that the country is not prepared for Brexit, particularly for a no-deal Brexit. The briefings to the House have confirmed, for example, that the majority of firms likely to be strongly impacted do not even have a Brexit plan in place. Nearly 40% of key exporters will fear severe difficulties at the exchange rate to which sterling fell this week. Half of exporting sectors have taken limited preparatory steps with Irish owned businesses being the most exposed.

Government financial aid is delayed and is so far having a negligible impact. One can go through the various schemes that Enterprise Ireland, Bord Bia and others have put forward. The take-up has been very low. One can look at that in a number of ways. I know the Taoiseach's perspective. It suggests that people were hoping everything would be all right on the night and that there was a lack of real engagement on behalf of many. Has there been discussion with the EU about the utilisation of cohesion funding and structural funding as potential state aids to help small and medium enterprises, SMEs, that rely heavily on the British market, especially the agrifood sector? The Tánaiste outlined this morning that he was bringing a memorandum to Government. He called it central scenario planning. Will the Taoiseach commit to the House that he will publish the plans for the country's readiness and preparation for Brexit? The public deserves to know about the content of the plans and their implications. The success of any preparation plans depends on buy-in from all concerned.

Comment on this
Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

I thank the Deputy for raising this important matter. We should not forget how we got here. The United Kingdom decided to leave the European Union and its government set out some hard red lines, that it would leave the customs union and the Single Market, that there would be no freedom of movement, and that it would not accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The agreement which we came to, after almost two years of negotiation, is supported by 28 Governments. We came to that agreement by drawing it around the red lines set by the UK Government. No other agreement can do that. The UK-wide backstop is there at the request of the UK Government, as the Deputy rightly pointed out. Our original proposal was for something different, with a Northern Ireland-only backstop, which would not apply to Great Britain. Before the UK set out its red lines, there were other options such as "Norway plus", where the United Kingdom would remain in the Single Market and customs union but not in the European Union itself. The agreement we have come to was crafted around the UK's own red lines and contains elements that it wanted, specifically a backstop that would apply on a UK-wide basis and not just to Northern Ireland, which was the original proposal of Ireland and the European Union.

It is essential to point out that the backstop is not just an Irish issue. It is a European issue too. It is there to give us the enduring guarantee that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland but it is also to protect the Single Market and make sure that the open Irish Border does not cause the European Single Market to be contaminated. That is why there is resolute and overwhelming European support that the backstop has to remain part of a withdrawal agreement. It is not just an Irish issue but an issue for Europe too, and the integrity of the Single Market which we are all part of.

We have always based our plans on a central case scenario, which is that there would be a deal. We have been doing contingency planning for a no deal scenario. We now need to increase the contingency planning to execution for no deal. That includes putting in place measures for both the central case scenario and the no deal scenario. That involves acceleration of the recruitment of customs officers. We have 200 in the recruitment process already with a panel of 3,000, so we can do that. It also includes recruitment of veterinary officers and health officials. It means putting in place infrastructure in our ports and airports, specifically Dublin and Rosslare, and introducing enabling legislation. Some of that will be done through Brussels and some will be done here in the Oireachtas in the first quarter. Some 70 Commission notes have been published already. We will publish information as we go and will provide briefings to Opposition parties.

Firms which do not have action plans should develop them. Those that have action plans should begin to implement them. There is Government support, whether through seminars, loans or advice. We have had discussions with the European Commission about state aid and what state aid may be available to companies in the case of a no deal scenario. Those discussions are already under way and we have some proposals under consideration as to what could be offered in state aid. That would not kick in unless it was absolutely necessary.

Comment on this

Will the Taoiseach publish the central case scenario plan, which is a terrible name for a plan? The Taoiseach might consider changing it on publication. The public needs to be engaged by this plan. I have always been of the view that the public should have been engaged a long time ago. There is a view that should people be told the terrible implications of Brexit it might cause undue alarm and panic. People are sensible. If we want them to buy-in and engage they should know what the implications are. I never agreed with the decision to suppress the Revenue plans, for example, which were eventually published and the world did not collapse. I ask the Taoiseach to commit to publishing the central case scenario and contingency plans, including the planned expansion of facilities that is required at Dublin Port and Rosslare.

Politics should no longer get in the way of genuine national engagement in preparing for Brexit. If a no deal scenario does not arise, all the better. The problem with Brexit is that the Tory Government created the red lines and that British politics, currently, is incapable of squaring the circles. This is essentially where we are.

Comment on this

Time up, Deputy.

Comment on this

In that context, the uncertainty demands that as a nation we are properly prepared. All the data from the agencies, including the most recent from AIB, state that SMEs are not prepared. For whatever reason, they are not prepared to the level that they should be. I ask that the Taoiseach publish the plans, which in itself could help to create a consciousness among the public to get engaged.

Comment on this
Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

There is no single document that we have that we can publish. There are lots of different plans and they affect different sectors in different ways.

Comment on this

What about the central case scenario plan?

Comment on this
Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

There are 70 Commission notes, which are available. There are 15 sectoral seminars being held at Commission level and these will conclude around 10 January. We have the central case scenario plan.

Comment on this

Can it be published?

Comment on this
Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

It has been shared with the stakeholders group. We have no difficulty publishing it. We can make arrangements to do so but it is not what the Deputy thinks it is. It is much less detailed than the Deputy may believe it is.

Comment on this

That is the problem.

Comment on this
Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

In terms of no deal, we should all be very aware that everybody wants to avoid a no deal scenario, including in Britain, Ireland and the European Union. The United Kingdom has the power to withdraw the threat of no deal from us, its own people and from the European Union. It can do so by revoking Article 50 or, if that is a step too far, by seeking an extension to Article 50. The power exists for the United Kingdom to remove the threat of no deal from its own people and from its economy, from ours and from Europe, should it wish to do so.

Comment on this