No-deal Brexit and Irish unity
Deputy McDonald presses for maximum publication of contingency planning and argues a crash-out Brexit requires preparation for constitutional transition and a unity referendum. The Taoiseach rejects her framing, says Ireland will support ratification of the existing deal, and maintains the UK can still avoid no deal by revoking or extending Article 50.
As we know, yesterday the British Prime Minister shelved her plan for her so-called meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement because it was likely to be defeated by a significant margin. As we are all aware, this heightens the prospect of a no deal scenario or a crash out Brexit, which nobody in their right senses wishes to see happen. I know that this matter was discussed at Cabinet this morning and that the Tánaiste has brought forward a paper. It is important that the Government puts the maximum possible information into the public domain regarding the specifics of its sectoral contingency plans.
There is a bigger issue. Whatever the contingencies in the here and now for individual sectors, there remain questions around no return to a hard border, no hardening of the Border, the protection of citizens' rights and the integrity of the Good Friday Agreement. Those matters, it should be remembered, are the reasons a backstop was crafted in the first instance. I have repeatedly made it clear to Mrs. Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, that in the event of a crash out or a no deal Brexit it will be incumbent on her to put the question of the constitutional future of the North to the people by way of a referendum. I believe we are on course to such a referendum in any event, but a crash or no deal scenario makes it an immediate prospect. It is time for the Taoiseach and the Government to articulate that same position.
If the people of the North are to be disregarded and have their futures toyed with by a British Parliament that does not have a clue what it is doing and has absolutely no regard for this country, they must have their say. This is a reasonable position. It is the only sustainable and serious position and it is one that all parties in the Dáil should support.
The European Council agreed in April 2017 that all of the island would be afforded membership of the European Union in the event of national reunification. Amid all the toing and froing, the chaos at Westminster and talk of hard borders, soft borders, deals and no deals, it is a fact that uniting our country would end the need for a backstop, definitively and permanently. The debate on unity is well under way, particularly in the North. Notwithstanding sectoral contingencies, what is the big contingency plan? My suggestion is that it should be the Government preparing contingencies and plans for a constitutional transition and a unity referendum.
Comment on this
To answer the Deputy's first question, we have no difficulty making plans public at the right time and as they are developed. However, it should be borne in mind that contingency plans happen at two levels. There are the contingency plans happening at European level, led by the Commission, and those that are specific to Ireland, which are led by the Government. The plans in Brussels will not be finalised until the middle of January but we are happy to make them public as we move forward. Indeed, it will be necessary to make them public because it will require the recruitment of staff, which must be made public, infrastructure at ports and airports, which will have to be tendered for and thus be made public, and legislation. In some cases it will be simple legislation to add words such as "and the United Kingdom" beside the European Union and to make exceptions for the United Kingdom in certain circumstances. Again, that must be made public because we will be asking the Oireachtas to enact that legislation. It will also involve business supports, many of which are already well known. Additional supports around state aid might be necessary after 28 March. These things must be done in consort with Brussels. They must all be done together and they must not contradict each other. We will be happy to make them available as time passes. We have already briefed the Brexit stakeholder group, on which the Deputy's party is represented, on much of this so there will not be many surprises.
On the Deputy's central question, I disagree with her assessment. I heard the Prime Minister's speech yesterday in the House of Commons in which she gave a robust defence of the backstop. She accepts that there must be a backstop as part of the withdrawal agreement, that there can be no withdrawal agreement without one and that a backstop is necessary to give us the insurance policy we need whereby should Great Britain ever pursue a hard Brexit, there would not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland as a consequence. We have been at pains to emphasise all along that special arrangements for Northern Ireland where they relate to, for example, agriculture regulations, industrial products or goods are not constitutional matters. At the heart of the Good Friday Agreement is an acceptance that we only pursue our political objectives in Britain and Ireland by peaceful means, that Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom until the people there say otherwise and that there are special arrangements for Northern Ireland. The fact that there are special arrangements for Northern Ireland reflects its unique history and geography. They are not a constitutional threat. The Deputy introducing demands for Irish unity and a Border poll into the debate at this time is disruptive and destructive to trying to achieve what we seek, which is ratification of this agreement by the House of Commons in January.
Comment on this
I do not know if the Taoiseach missed what happened at Westminster. I am not disputing any of the information. I am conversant with the Good Friday Agreement and I know what Theresa May said yesterday. Incidentally, she raised the prospect of Irish unity. I am sure the Taoiseach heard that part of what she said. In this instance we are discussing the contingency planning for the prospect of a crash and no-deal Brexit. The Taoiseach will not convince me or anybody else that recruitment of customs officials and veterinary officers is the answer to that existential crisis, a political and economic earthquake. I am putting to the Taoiseach the logical position that ultimately, to protect the island not just in the short term but also in the long term, the required course of action is to work for the removal of the Border - democratically, peacefully and with the express consent of the people, as per the Good Friday Agreement.
Take that as read. I put it to the Taoiseach - I am hoping he has more than the kind of superficial or glib analysis he has offered up here today - that we need a forthright, strong and grounded analysis on how we are to protect this island and all of our citizens in the medium to long term.
Comment on this
It is imperative, therefore, that the Taoiseach prepares for a referendum on unity. As head of Government, the correct thing for him to do is put it to Theresa May, as I have done, that in the event of a crash not of our making we will not be the collateral damage of a Tory Brexit, we will protect the national interest and we will prepare the ultimate and only real contingency plan, which is for constitutional transition and a referendum on unity.
Comment on this
If I did not know the Deputy better, I would almost suspect that she secretly hoped we did end up with a no-deal scenario so that she could exploit the economic damage here to the benefit of her party and stir up any amount of trouble in Northern Ireland. We take a different approach.
Comment on this
We have a deal on the table which has the support of 28 Governments and which was negotiated over a 15-month period.
Comment on this
Our objective is to get that deal ratified by the House of Commons. That is what we will be working on over the next couple of weeks, giving the UK assurances that it may need but never compromising on the basic fundamental substance and written letter of the backstop. That is what we will do in the coming weeks. If that does not work, it remains in the hands of the United Kingdom to decide that we will not end up in a no-deal scenario. There is the option to revoke Article 50 and the option to extend it. While there may not be a majority for any deal in the House of Commons, I am of the view that there is a majority which believes the United Kingdom should not be plunged into a no-deal scenario. It is in their hands, at any point, to take the threat of no deal off the table either by revoking Article 50 or, if that is a step too far, extending it.