Brexit contingency planning
Deputy Calleary pressed for details of Ireland’s response to the growing risk of no-deal Brexit. The Tánaiste said the Government was working with the European Commission and would share a plan once completed, stressing accuracy and the complexity of the task.
Since the House last sat on Thursday, there has been a series of deadlocked votes at Westminster which led this morning to Michel Barnier stating, "Over the last days a no-deal scenario has become more likely, but we still can hope to avoid it." The European Parliament Brexit co-ordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, tweeted last night that, following those votes, a hard Brexit becomes nearly inevitable. His remarks were effectively endorsed by the Tánaiste’s party colleague, Mairead McGuinness, MEP, this morning in a radio interview.
Nobody wants a hard Brexit. We all cannot reiterate that enough. However, the indecision of the Westminster Parliament may land us in one, either by accident or by design on the part of some MPs. However, the one shred of light is that the customs union proposition may be the most politically palatable given that the division on it last evening was lost by only three votes. The British Cabinet is currently meeting. As we know by now, we cannot anticipate what it will decide. Many businesses, farmers and fishermen, as well as communities on the Border and across the island, are petrified as to what will happen on Friday, 12 April. Last Friday was supposed to be Brexit day but the date was kicked to 12 April, which is only a week away. If what those eminent people stated this morning comes to pass, we may end up, by accident, in a situation nobody wants.
There is an onus on the Government to ensure that we are adequately prepared and to begin communicating what are the plans. We all received a Government leaflet this morning which indicates that without the EU-UK withdrawal agreement "avoiding a hard border will be more challenging and will require detailed discussions". It also states "In that scenario the outcome, including practical arrangements for citizens and businesses ... will be made public as soon as possible."
The Taoiseach will meet President Macron today and the Chancellor Merkel on Thursday. Several weeks ago, the Chancellor Merkel asked if Ireland was prepared for what could be a hard Brexit and stated that in the absence of a deal there would be no Irish backstop. She asked the Taoiseach to outline how the Single Market would be protected between the Republic and Northern Ireland. She urged officials to get a move on. The Taoiseach has confirmed in the House that contacts are taking place between Ireland and the European Commission about protecting the Single Market but that he would not share papers or documents. Is that still the case? What is on the agenda for the meeting between the Taoiseach President Macron. Is it about protecting the Single Market and planning for the event of a no-deal Brexit? Where will today’s and Thursday’s discussions lead this island? What is the Tánaiste’s view on the likely outcome over the coming days?
Comment on this
I thank the Deputy for asking his question and for giving me an opportunity to update the House on this matter. I agree with Michel Barnier and others when they say that, as the days pass, a no-deal Brexit looks like a real possibility.
Of course, we hope that will not be the case but the country needs to be ready if it is. The Government is very much focused on working with all other parties in this House to ensure we do everything we can to prepare Ireland for that outcome, which would put huge strain and pressure on many sectors across the country. We are well prepared in many ways and we go through the detail of that preparation on a regular basis with stakeholders and many others. State agencies are constantly reaching out and speaking to different sectors and businesses on what they need to do to prepare for Brexit. I will bring two Brexit papers to Cabinet this evening when it meets at 8.30 p.m. on the Taoiseach's return from Paris. I assure the Deputy that the no-deal Brexit preparations have intensified significantly in recent days and that will continue.
On the difficult issue of how we respond to the challenges of an all-island economy in the context of the United Kingdom crashing out of the European Union and, therefore, Northern Ireland, as part of the United Kingdom, being outside of the customs union and Single Market without any deal in place, we have always said that is a very difficult challenge to respond to for us, as a Government, and the EU collectively. We have a dual responsibility to protect the integrity of the EU Single Market, of which we are very much a part, and Ireland will not to allow a situation where the UK leaving the European Union without a deal drags Ireland out of the Single Market with it. We cannot allow that situation. By that I mean that a response that involves checks in EU ports on all Irish products is not a runner. That would cause significant damage to our economy and we will not allow it. What we need to do, and what we are doing now, is to intensify our discussions with the European Commission on how we respond to the dual responsibility of protecting the Good Friday Agreement, the peace process and relations on this island as best we can while, at the same time, ensuring that we can reassure other EU countries that Ireland is protecting the integrity of the Single Market that we all share. The Taoiseach has referred to the conversations that have begun on that issue. There was a meeting last Friday and those discussions will continue into this week. We must find a way to protect the Single Market's integrity but also avoid physical infrastructure on the Border. That is something on which we do not have an agreed plan we are working this week, and into next week if necessary, in the context of a no-deal Brexit.
Comment on this
Every part of this House wants to work with the Government in preparation for a hard Brexit but we need information.
Comment on this
We need to see the details of the plan so that we can share it and get it out there. Hope is no longer a strategy. The Tánaiste has hoped for a long time but, whether by accident or design, it seems we are moving towards a hard Brexit. The Tánaiste spoke of the challenge of protecting the Single Market while maintaining an all-island economy and said the Government was discussing detail. Surely that detail should be shared with the House. It is detail that is relevant to every single citizen of this island, in all 32 counties. We are their representatives. I presume that detail is being discussed in Paris today and will be discussed with Chancellor Merkel on Thursday. However, it is not being discussed in this House. The Government needs to share that detail and involve us in its planning. I presume the Taoiseach and President Macron are not discussing their Kylie collections today. They must be discussing this level of detail. This House should have some knowledge. We do not want to be given the entire negotiating strategy but we should have knowledge of the principles and key commitments to which the Taoiseach will sign up with President Macron and Chancellor Merkel on behalf of this island this week.
Comment on this
We need to be very careful in what we say here because accuracy is important. We need to be sure that we do not turn this into a political or party political issue.
The Government is not hiding anything from anybody. There is not a plan.
Comment on this
What we are doing is working out a plan with the European Commission, because it involves both the European Commission and the Irish Government, to try to ensure that we fulfil our dual responsibilities as co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement and as a committed member of the European Union and its Single Market and customs union. That is a complex challenge, and we always said it would be. We always said also that it would involve difficult conversations with the European Commission. They are happening now-----
Comment on this
-----but to present this as the Irish Government having a plan that it goes to Brussels with to look for approval for is not accurate.
The British Government also has a responsibility here, as a co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement. We will need to continue to work out a plan with the European Commission if the British Government does not follow through on its commitment to solve this problem on this island through regulatory alignment, as a strategy in the context of a no-deal Brexit just as it was committed to in the context of a withdrawal agreement being agreed.
Let us not forget that as early as December 2017, before a withdrawal agreement was designed or approved, the British Government committed to Ireland and to the EU that as a default position, it would solve the Border challenges on the island of Ireland through regulatory alignment.
Comment on this
That is still the way to deal with this but in the absence of the British Government following through on that commitment, we will continue to work with the European Commission to put what is a difficult plan in place that will protect the Good Friday Agreement but also protect the EU Single Market. As soon as that work is complete, of course, we will share it.