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Dáil
‹ Ceisteanna ó Cheannairí - Leaders' Questions

Fiscal prudence and economic outlook

Summary

Deputies challenged the Government’s budget credibility, citing the fiscal council, national debt, homelessness and the need for a €4 billion funding gap to be explained. The Taoiseach defended the economic record, said the summer economic statement would update projections, and attacked Fianna Fáil’s past record while insisting the public finances are improving.

The last fiscal assessment report from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council was published in November 2018. It described the Government's medium-term budgetary plans as not credible. It said the Government's budgetary plans were not conducive to prudent economic and budgetary management.

The next report from the council will be due in approximately three weeks. It will make for interesting reading given what has emerged since the previous report was published six months ago. We now know the overall cost of the national children's hospital has spiralled to €1.73 billion and the Government is prepared to commit up to €3 billion on the national broadband plan. All of this is new information that was not accounted for in the previous budget. We have heard no plan for how these commitments will be funded. In fact, these two projects on their own leave a very big hole in the Government's numbers. We know from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform memorandum of earlier this month as well as from parliamentary questions tabled by Deputy Barry Cowen that the national broadband plan contract would require almost an extra €500 million over the next three years alone to 2022. This comes to a total of €1.6 billion extra over the lifetime of the national development plan to 2027. The extra amount needed for the national children's hospital over the next three years is €385 million. Between the two of these the Government needs to find an extra €900 million over the next three years. The overall shortfall for these two projects is in the region of €2 billion over the lifetime of the national development plan. These are not Fianna Fáil's numbers. These are the numbers from the Government's spending watchdog, the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform.

Again, I wish to emphasise that these are additional costs, above and beyond what was provided for only a few months ago. On top of that, the Taoiseach made a political promise in recent months that he would give a €2.3 billion income tax cut in the lifetime of the next Government, if he was lucky enough to be leading it.

In effect, the Government has made unfunded commitments of more than €4 billion over the next number of years. It seems to me that the Government is committing money it simply does not have, and these commitments are essentially unfunded. All of this is against the backdrop of most economists predicting that there will be a slowdown in growth over the coming years, that the risks we are facing are now on the downside, and that we need to plan accordingly. Most worryingly of all, the Tánaiste's report to Cabinet today states that the risk of a no-deal Brexit has never been greater.

Will the Taoiseach explain to the House, and more importantly to the people, how he is going to fund this shortfall of €900 million in the next three years, and indeed €4 billion out to 2027? If he is to keep his promises, then he has a few simple choices. He can raise taxes, cut spending, borrow more money, postpone or cut other capital projects, or he can simply hope that the booming corporation tax receipts we have enjoyed in recent years continue indefinitely. Which of these options is it?

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

I thank the Deputy. First, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, is an independent body which the Government set up because we thought there should be an independent fiscal advisory council in the State. It was set up as part of the response to the financial and economic crisis which the Deputy's own party had a very large hand in creating in the first place and mishandling thereafter. Around the middle of June, the Minister for Finance, Deputy Donohoe, will present the summer economic statement in the normal way. The summer economic statement, as has been the case in previous years, will update our financial projections by taking developments in revenue, employment, expenditure, and so on into account. That will be presented in the normal way in the middle of June, as it has been for many years.

As I have informed the House already, the national broadband plan, NBP, will not have a fiscal impact on 2019 and will have a minimal one on 2020, given the carry-over of the money allocated for the NBP into 2020. However, it will have an impact from 2021 onwards, and we will have to provide for that. We are confident that we can provide for that from revenue. It is also important to bear in mind that Project Ireland 2040 and the national development plan provided for contingencies. I cannot remember the exact figure. There might have been between €5 and €7 billion set aside for a contingency, but that is later in the ten-year period and we will have to look at that too.

When it comes to the Deputy's question, what should be the most important news is the labour force survey, which came out at 11 o'clock this morning. That shows that there are now 2.3 million people at work in Ireland, which is more than ever before. There has been a net increase in employment of 80,000 in the past 12 months.

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There is a growing population.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

Employment is now expanding at twice the rate of this time last year. Unemployment has fallen to a 14 year low, and long-term unemployment has fallen to 1.7%.

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Like the Taoiseach's approval rating.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

These figures are much better than we expected. Employment is now growing in Ireland at twice the rate it was growing this time last year, and this is evidence of an economy that is doing well and is being well managed. That increase in employment, with more people working than we thought and people earning more than they did in previous years, will have a positive impact on the public finances.

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That is already factored in.

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How are there 3,000 homeless children? That is not much economic growth.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

We will have a budget surplus this year and will reduce our debt. The Deputy's party quadrupled it, and we will continue to reduce it. We will establish a rainy day fund, and provided that these good economic numbers continue and we are not blown off course by a hard Brexit, which is a real risk, we will be in a very good position to put together a budget in September.

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The Taoiseach has adopted the usual approach of attacking the messenger rather than dealing with the message. He did not answer my question. We have seen the latest forecast from the Department of Finance, in terms of economic growth, tax receipts, and so on, as recently as last month in the stability programme update. The Taoiseach cannot seriously be suggesting that he can find €4 billion in extra receipts and projections from last month's report to the middle of June when the summer economic statement is going to be published. That is simply not credible. The Taoiseach's predecessor had a saying that Paddy likes to know. Paddy does like to know. He wants to know what the story is, because these are hard numbers. They are not Fianna Fáil's numbers, they are the Government's own numbers from its own spending watchdog.

An extra €500 million for broadband over three years and €1.6 billion over the life of the development plan will be needed, while the children's hospital will need €400 million over the next three years. Between those two projects alone, there is an extra €2 billion, but the Taoiseach saw fit to promise more than a further €2 billion in tax cuts. That is more than €4 billion, but the money is not there. It will not be there in the summer economic statement next month and it is about time the Taoiseach came clean with people by telling them the truth.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

I answered the Deputy's question. The summer economic statement will be published in mid-June, as it always is. We will use that to update our financial projections for growth, jobs, revenue and spending. The Deputy mentioned the extra €1.6 billion that would be needed in the coming years to fund the national broadband plan. He should bear in mind that our budget is €60 billion every year and this is a national development plan of €116 billion over ten years. I have explained in the past how we propose to fund income tax cuts. Because of increasing employment and the fact that there are more people working every year-----

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That is already factored in.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

-----and because people are earning more every year, we take in approximately an extra €1.8 billion in income tax every year. We are proposing to give about €500 million of that €1.8 billion back to people so that they can have more money in their pockets. That is the right thing to do, in my view. I am happy to answer the Deputy's questions-----

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The Taoiseach did not answer the questions.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

-----but I cannot accept Fianna Fáil trying to put on a mask of economic prudence and economic competence. Last time Fianna Fáil was in Government it quadrupled the national debt and we have reduced it.

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The Taoiseach's legacy will be all the children in emergency accommodation.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

It left us with a deficit of 10% of GDP and we have brought about a budget surplus. The figures today show that there are 80,000 more people at work than a year ago, with employment increasing twice as fast as a year ago. We are now heading for full employment.

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Shoot the messenger.

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Leo Varadkar The Taoiseach Fine Gael

I am not shooting the messenger. The messenger has no credibility.

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Where is the €4 billion?

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