Can we, please, move to Deputy Howlin?

As I have indicated previously, clearly the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection has had little influence on the budget. She said yesterday that she wanted to defer raising the minimum wage as recommended by the Low Pay Commission until late 2020 or not at all in the event of a no-deal Brexit. That is bad economics. Research from the IMF and countless other economic studies have shown that raising the wages of the lowest paid has little or no negative impact on overall employment in any economy. I can send the Taoiseach the statistics. On the contrary, any extra money in the pockets of workers is spent locally in shops and businesses. It is a sensible counter-cyclical spend which would offset any economic downturn due to a hard Brexit. There is no economic logic to any decision to postpone raising the minimum wage in the event of a hard Brexit. It is simply wrong. The only conclusion to which one can come, therefore, is that Fine Gael is seeking to undermine the principle underlying the Low Wage Commission's determination.

The Labour Party's position is clear. No one who works full time should be living in poverty. As soon as the Labour Party entered government, we restored the previous cut made to the minimum wage. That was done at a time when we had no money. Before we left government, we added a further 50 cent per hour, which was equivalent to €1,000 a year. The original minimum wage set by the then Minister, Mary Harney, was approximately 60% of the median average wage, which is what the OECD considers to be the threshold for low pay. Later increases did not match the rising cost of living. That is why the Labour Party passed the National Minimum Wage (Low Pay Commission) Act 2015 which the Taoiseach will remember well. The Act provides for an evidenced-based approach to setting the national minimum wage, rather than leaving it to decisions made on a political basis. The issue is far too fundamental to the economic well-being of low paid workers to allow that to happen.

The Low Pay Commission makes an annual recommendation. Its recommendation for 2020 was that the minimum wage rise by 30 cent per hour to €10.10. Under the Act, the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection must, having received a recommendation, implement it or set out in a statement the reasons she is setting it aside. Will the Taoiseach confirm that if the Minister fails to make an order to raise the minimum wage to €10.10 per hour, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, she will set out her reasons in a full statement to the Dáil? Does the Government accept the findings of the IMF and others that raising the minimum wage does not have a negative impact on employment?

The Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection, Deputy Regina Doherty, had a huge influence on the composition of the budget, in particular in relation to her own Department, for which an increase in spending of approximately €500 million is projected next year. It is a very large increase. Albeit the package is modest and targeted, it was very much one of the Minister's design, in respect of which she had my support and that of the Government. There will be an increase in the living alone allowance to ensure the poorest pensioners and those with disabilities who live alone will receive an increase at close to three times the rate of inflation. The package focuses on the children of families on welfare payments to lift more people out of poverty. In the last year or two 20,000 children were lifted out of poverty and the budget will help more to come out of it. It focuses on lone parents, increasing the working family payment for low income working families and providing hot school meals and for returnships to encourage more women to return to the workforce. It is very much a package that was designed by the Minister with my support and that of the Government generally.

Deputy Howlin is correct that all of the research shows that modest and realistic increases in the minimum wage do not have an adverse effect on employment. The research also shows that increases in the minimum wage do not have much of an effect on poverty because of the nature of those on it. While that is not often quoted, it is what the research also shows. That is because minimum wage incomes are generally second incomes in households, not the primary wage. That is why increases tend not to have a significant effect on poverty. However, raising the minimum wage is good and the right thing to do. Anyone who gets up early in the morning for less than €10 per hour is very hard working and deserves an increase. That is why I was pleased to be part of a Government with the Labour Party when we reversed the cut in the minimum wage and then increased it. I am also glad to be part of a Government with Fine Gael and the Independent Alliance which has increased the minimum wage for three years in a row.

I encourage people to read the report of the Low Pay Commission on its recommendation. It has recommended a 30 cent increase in the minimum wage in the new year if there is a deal and an orderly Brexit. Yesterday the Cabinet accepted that recommendation. If there is a deal and an orderly Brexit, the minimum wage will increase by 30 cent per hour in the new year. If that does not happen, we will be in a different space and must consider the fact that we face rising unemployment. We do not want to do anything that will make it harder for employers to keep people on or which might cause them to cut people's hours, which would actually make them worse off. That is what we need to bear in mind. The recommendation of the commission is to increase the minimum wage by 30 cent per hour in January based on an orderly Brexit. I hope we will know by January whether that will be the case.

The Taoiseach cannot argue both ways. If raising the minimum wage has no impact on employment, he cannot argue that he must not do it to protect employment. That does not make sense to me. In what he sets out in response to this and my previous question, he says the budget announced yesterday was a Brexit budget intended to Brexit-proof the nation. Rightly, significant sums of money have been provided to protect employment and support jobs and vulnerable sectors of the economy. What he has told me twice now, however, is that the Government has no protections in place for the most vulnerable people who are dependent on fixed incomes. I refer to those on welfare payments, 80% of whom the Taoiseach has acknowledged will experience a real pay deduction next year. In the event of a hard Brexit, that reduction will be significant owing to price rises. Low paid workers are not to be Brexit-proofed either. Their modest 30 cent per hour pay increase is to be put on hold if there is a hard Brexit. Relief and supports are rightly put in place for some but not for the lowest paid workers and social welfare recipients.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the people who will be most vulnerable are those who will lose their jobs. That is what the budget is all about. It is about ensuring we protect Ireland from the worst effects of a no-deal Brexit. We are putting in place the firepower to make social welfare payments to those who may need them because they lose their jobs and, more importantly, to save businesses and jobs. I would rather borrow money to save jobs than to pay the dole. That is the policy we are pursuing. That is why we need to protect our resources. The Deputy knows as well as I do that modest or even small increases in social welfare rates across the board and modest tax cuts to take account of indexation cost a great deal of money. Indexing tax credits and tax bands alone would have cost €600 million. Indexing welfare payments with inflation would probably have cost another €300 million or €400 million. That would have been €1 billion gone to take account of indexation and inflation. That is the €1 billion we need to protect Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit by saving businesses and jobs. That is the choice we have made.