No sooner did we get some light at the end of the tunnel in respect of Covid than the B1617 variant appeared on our shores. My home is close to Limerick city. The number of Covid-19 cases in Limerick has increased, with 272 new cases diagnosed in the past week. We do not know how many of those cases involve this variant. Up to Friday last, 73 cases of the B1617.2, commonly known as the Indian variant, had been detected in Ireland. This is just a snapshot of the situation over the past number of weeks because it takes time to sequence the variant but there has been a huge spread of this variant in the UK. I want to question the Minister as regards what the Government is doing to deal with this in the context of our vaccine roll-out. The variant is obviously spreading.

The National Public Health Emergency Team, NPHET, has said that it is genuinely concerned about the number of cases involving the variant.

People are worried about this variant. A concern has been raised with me by many people over the past week or two, in particular those who are due to get their second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, namely, those in the 60 to 70 age cohort. I am sure this has been raised with the Minister and has come up in government.

The latest UK research data for the variant shows that two doses of AstraZeneca provide just under 60% protection, and the figure for the Pfizer vaccine is 87.9%. What is really worrying is that the first dose of AstraZeneca only provides 30% protection according to a very credible UK study. Those who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine must wait at least 12 weeks to get their second dose.

I and my colleague, Deputy Brendan Howlin, have raised this issue with the Minister for Health several times. It is a cause of serious concern to an age group that could be the next most vulnerable, namely, those aged between 60 and 70. This means that of all the cohorts vaccinated, those in the 60 to 70-year-old bracket will have the lowest level of protection, the longest waiting time for a follow-up dose and will be at the greatest risk of ending up in hospital. In order to tackle this concern, across the sea the UK has dropped the time limit from 12 to eight weeks for the second dose of AstraZeneca. This issue is of genuine concern to those aged between 60 and 70 who are constantly raising this issue with all politicians.

Will the national immunisation advisory committee, NIAC, re-examine the vaccination strategy for people aged 60 and above? Will we follow what has happened in Britain and shorten the waiting time for the second dose? Will we do what has been suggested by some in the medical profession, that is, offer a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine for those aged between 60 and 70 in order to boost their protection against this variant, given that the evidence shows they will have greater protection much more quickly than what is currently proposed, which is a wait of between 12 and 16 weeks?

We have to be constantly vigilant and concerned about what is happening with Covid-19, including local incidence rates. Deputy Kelly cited Limerick as one example. We have to continue to monitor the situation. The reality is that the figures over the past two months have been relatively stable. We would like to see them lower but by any international comparison, we have one of the lowest levels of transmission.

There is a whole variety of variants. The B1617 variant is of particular concern. As of 24 May, there were 128 cases of the variant of concern confirmed in Ireland, 89 cases of B1617.2 and 39 cases of B1617.1. Critical to that is the ongoing high incidence of genomic testing to enable us to find out where there are clusters. One of the reasons the UK may have identified high incidence rates in certain areas is because, in fairness to it, it is doing a very high level of genomic testing, at a rate much higher than most other countries.

We cannot assume that when there is not a higher level of testing that cases are not present in other countries. As we know, a variety of variants are continuing to evolve. Variance is an ongoing risk of the Covid pandemic. The Public Health England study gives some reassurance about protection, in particular, as the Deputy said, after two doses. In terms of percentages, I understand the key figure we need to consider is the level of hospitalisation, while not underestimating the fact that some who are not symptomatic do not have to go to hospital. That is the key measure we have to protect against.

I understand the Deputy's suggestion is that we again alter the vaccine roll-out programme for those aged in their 60s. We will have to defer to public health advice and the vaccine roll-out group in terms of how we do that. I will be honest and say that I would be slightly concerned that we minimise the level of change unless there is a very clear public health argument in favour of it. The vaccination programme is working. We are seeing an incredible show of strength by the HSE in the way it set up vaccination centres and in the way the GPs have rolled in on the process. That will widen out to pharmacists and others.

One of the real difficulties they have had is constant changes in the roll-out programme. This makes it difficult for them, especially with regard to the AstraZeneca vaccine, because we know that has been the most variable in terms of delivery. Saying anything with certainty on AstraZeneca at the moment might give false hope, because we have not had a clear, absolutely certain delivery timetable for it at any stage over the past six months. I will present the argument to the relevant experts but cannot commit to taking up the Deputy's advice.

I am the most pro-vaccine person the Minister will ever meet. I have a track record to show that. The HSE has done an incredible job under very difficult circumstances, many of them outside its control. However, the real issue I am raising is based on the UK study and the sequencing that has been done. The UK has much more data than us, as the Minister rightly said. Those in that age bracket, based on the analysis that has come from our closest neighbour, will in a few months' time have the lowest level of protection, even though it is a quite vulnerable age group. Members of this group wait the longest for a follow-up dose and, according to the analysis, will have the greatest risk of ending up in hospital.

I am asking the Minister to put this forward to NIAC and ask that it be considered as something that we need to give confidence to, for that age cohort in particular. I have been extremely surprised by the number of people who have come to me to outline this argument, and it is growing. At least if the Minister puts it to NIAC, and it comes back and gives reassurance, that issue will be dealt with. I would appreciate it if the Minister would do so.

I will happily put that to NIAC as the Deputy suggests. One cause of comfort, although maybe it is the wrong word, is to look at what is actually happening. My understanding on what has been reported in Limerick is that there has been a spike locally. The numbers are not huge and, while we still have to keep an eye on every such spike, it has not been in that older age category in Limerick. It has been in the younger age category, so we have to look and see.

Regarding the UK and potential importation, the advice remains the same for the immediate future on no non-essential travel. There is strong advice against it from any location at the present time. There will be statements later on the whole issue of international travel. Again, one issue we have to take account of in any projected timeline for the return of international travel, is it would likely be over three months since most of that age category would have been vaccinated. In that sort of time period, it is likely that the vast majority of the cohort concerned, because there is a concern with older age cohorts, will be in the category of getting 80% to 90%-plus coverage, which the public science seems to indicate. That gives us some protection, but we have to remain vigilant at all times.