I wish the Tánaiste good afternoon. My questions will be focused on the situation in Ukraine and more specifically how it relates to the situation in Ireland. I think every Deputy will recall the dying days of the Celtic tiger, when our financial regulators were utterly clueless about the risks emerging on the horizon and provided absolutely no early warning whatsoever. Even as the storm was breaking our financial regulators were oblivious to the risk. They were telling us there was nothing to see here and that everything was fine. However, in the end, there was something to see. Every Deputy knows we have been living with the legacy of that disaster every day since then.

There is also something to see in Ukraine at the moment. The consensus assessment is there is an 80% likelihood of hostilities breaking out before the end of the month, once the Chinese Olympics finish on 20 February. While we wish the diplomats well and are hoping for a diplomatic outcome, we should always bear in mind that the Japanese used bogus negotiations right up to the day of the Pearl Harbor attack in the 1940s. It was the same story with the Germans before their invasion of Poland. There is, therefore, a risk that these negotiations are not being conducted in good faith and we should be prepared accordingly. I fully accept, as I think all Deputies do, that we have very little control of geopolitical events. When the tectonic plates start moving, we have very little control. However, we have much more control over how we respond and how we prepare.

I would be grateful if the Tánaiste would update the House on the continuous planning that has been taking place at Government level. I ask that he specifically focus on whether any financial provision has been made to assist our fellow EU countries that border Ukraine in the event of a major humanitarian crisis breaking out. Do we have any spare capacity in our refugee system to accept new refugees? From a cybersecurity point of view, have we hardened or ruggedised our critical national infrastructure such as the national grid, the health service and the public transport system? If they go down, the poorest people will suffer the most. How does the Tánaiste assess the safety of our embassy staff in Kyiv? Do we have any measures in place to safeguard our energy security if things go wrong and conflict breaks out? Energy security is going to be a major issue because of the control the Russians have over our gas.

To summarise, having this conversation is not alarmist in any shape or form. These are normal, prudent, sensible and responsible discussions. They are happening all over Europe and need to happen here as well. I would be grateful if the Tánaiste would update the House accordingly.

I thank the Deputy. The Government continues to conduct appropriate contingency planning that considers a number of perspectives, including consular support for citizens. At the same time it is important to remember that intensive international efforts to secure a negotiated diplomatic resolution to the tensions are ongoing. At the moment there are no plans to withdraw staff or evacuate our embassy in Kyiv. The Department of Foreign Affairs will continue to keep the security situation under review in line with its procedures on ensuring the security and safety of our staff there. On 22 January the Department updated its travel advice for Ukraine and advised that people should avoid non-essential travel to the country. We will be continuing to keep this advice under review. We also continue to advise that all Irish citizens in Ukraine should register with the Irish Embassy in Kyiv so they can receive consular assistance and be evacuated from the country should the need arise.

I state once again that the Government strongly supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine. We believe that should be respected. We also respect and support the right of the people of Ukraine to determine their own affairs and their right of sovereignty. They have the right to decide they wish to join the European Union or to decide they wish to join NATO. Those should always be decisions for the elected Ukrainian Government and not to be determined by others or imposed on it by anyone else.

At present we have made no provision for financial aid to neighbouring countries but we absolutely acknowledge that were there to be a conflict, as well as loss of human life, there would likely be significant refugee flows into Romania and Poland in particular. In that scenario we anticipate the EU solidarity clause would be triggered and we would be required, but also willing and happy, to assist Romania and Poland in any way we can should that situation arise. That would also involve, under European arrangements, being willing to take a number of refugees from Ukraine, which we would be willing to do. However, all efforts at the moment are aimed at avoiding such a scenario because we know a land war between Russia and Ukraine would result in tens of thousands of deaths and probably hundreds of thousands of people being internally displaced or fleeing to Romania and Poland. Nobody wants that situation to arise so diplomatic efforts are under way to avoid conflict in the region. Crucially, that cannot mean sacrificing the sovereignty and autonomy of Ukraine and the right of its people and democratically elected Government to determine their own affairs.

I thank the Tánaiste for his reply. It is semi-reassuring to know contingency planning has at least commenced. We have a tradition in this House, and perhaps in this country and beyond, of retrospective analysis. We always look back at an event and say we should have done more of this or less of that. Perhaps this is one time we can get ahead of the event and do some proper planning. It would prevent any emergency debates or any poor decision-making in the middle of the night. My advice would be to use the next ten days or fortnight as best as possible to put a proper plan in place. While we certainly hope for the best, we should also be prepared for the worst. I wish the Tánaiste and Government well with their preparations.

I thank the Deputy. It is prescient and appropriate to raise this issue in the House because if Russia invades Ukraine this will become a very big issue for Ireland and indeed for the EU. As I said, contingency planning is under way for different scenarios but perhaps we need to upgrade or scale up the kind of contingency planning we are doing. The Deputy makes a very valid point in that regard. Obviously, the first response is to protect our citizens in Ukraine and to ensure they are safe and can get out if they need to. The second is a wider humanitarian response to help people who may be displaced or have to flee. The third of course relates to issues around energy supplies. We do not get much gas from Russia or Ukraine but it would still have a knock-on effect. There is also the possibility of cyberattacks and disruption of the EU should a conflict emerge.