Inflation and mortgage rates
Deputy Berry sought comment on entrenched inflation and likely ECB rate rises, given the Minister’s Eurogroup role. The Minister emphasised central bank independence and noted that many mortgage holders are already choosing fixed rates.
We were told that the inflationary spike we experienced last year would be transitory. We appreciate now, however, that inflation is firmly entrenched in the global economy and it is having a massive impact on the cost of living for everyone in the country. The US Federal Reserve is also meeting tonight and that organisation will likely increase interest rates in America by up to 0.75%. The European Central Bank, ECB, will likely do something similar next month. I am aware that the ECB has operational independence, but the Minister is also the chair of the Eurogroup. Therefore, I would be grateful to hear his thoughts on where he would see the ECB's base rate being at the end of this year and if he would advise those Irish mortgage holders with variable rates of interest to consider fixing those rates between now and then.
Comment on this
We are seeing many indications now from central banks all over the world that they are going ahead with interest rate changes and also withdrawing the major emergency funding plans they had in place during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not for me to speculate, and it would not be appropriate for me to do so, on what the ECB will do. I must recognise its independence. Mortgage holders in recent months have been making decisions anyway. We have seen the majority of new mortgages taken out by people agreed at fixed rates, which is a matter for them to decide, of course.