Ukraine contingency planning
Cathal Berry raised Russia’s war on Ukraine and asked whether Ireland had the resources and briefings needed for any related contingency. The Taoiseach agreed appeasement had failed, said Ireland had adequate resources, and confirmed further defence briefings were planned over Easter.
I wish to raise the matter of Ukraine. I concur with the Taoiseach's comments of last Friday that Putin will stop where we choose to stop him. That is entirely true. I wish that, in 2014, when he invaded Crimea and half of Donbas, the international community, including Ireland, had been more robust and assertive in stopping him.
The appeasement he got eight years ago has brought us to the position we are in at the moment. I recall on 10 February last year on Leaders' Questions the Taoiseach and I had an exchange where we said there was an 80% likelihood that Russia would invade once the Chinese Olympic Games were over two weeks later, and it did. Crucially, we said that Ireland should use the time wisely to enhance our cyber security and energy security and to increase our ability to deal with a large influx of refugees, which unfortunately happened as well.
Unfortunately, it is time to have another similar conversation. There is now about an 80% likelihood of Ukraine launching a major counteroffensive in the next two to three weeks, likely targeting Crimea. They are entitled to do so under the UN Charter under the self-defence clause. My concern from Ireland's point of view is that a lot of the heavy fighting will most likely happen around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. It is the largest nuclear facility in Europe, it has six reactors and it has already suffered a lot of damage from a conventional point of view. The concern is that there might be a leak, either inadvertent or due to damage. We should use this time wisely between now and the start of the Ukrainian offensive at least to review our radiological monitoring service in this country to make sure it is fit for purpose. I would be grateful if the Taoiseach could update the House on what the plan is if there is a radiological incident, and whether we intend to upgrade our capabilities in the short term. This is not designed to frighten or scare anybody. On the contrary, it is an opportunity to provide reassurance and make sure that our systems are fit for purpose.
Comment on this
I am 100% in agreement with the Deputy on Putin. Appeasement has failed. I understand why sometimes people promote appeasement but just as it failed in the 1930s and 1940s, it has failed here. Russia was allowed to control part of Moldova, then it was allowed to invade Georgia and control part of Georgia, then it was allowed to take Crimea. The West did not act sufficiently, nor did the wider international community. As a result of that, Putin felt he had the green light to invade eastern and southern Ukraine and that is what he has done. He will only stop where we stop him. That is why we need to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes, and we will.
I remember the exchange Deputy Berry and I had about a year ago. All the intelligence was telling us that Putin was going to invade Ukraine. I had hoped the intelligence was wrong. The British and Americans have got their intelligence wrong in the past and I had hoped they were wrong on this occasion but they were not. They were spot on. The invasion began after the Olympic Games in February. Since then we have been updating and renewing our plans to deal with potential threats. We believe that a nuclear or radiological emergency is highly unlikely. I want to reassure the public and the House that we believe it is highly unlikely and even if it does happen, it is unlikely to have serious consequences for us. We have made contingency plans for it. In fact a training exercise was held in September to test the nation's response to a nuclear emergency. It took place in the National Emergency Co-ordination Centre, not too far from here, where we practised the systems and procedures outlined in the national plan for nuclear and radiological emergency exposures, to ensure that the Government and State agencies are prepared to manage the response effectively to a range of potential scenarios. The national plan details Ireland's planning and preparedness for a national response to a major nuclear emergency. It sets out the trigger points for the plan to be invoked. It includes notifications to Irish authorities of nuclear or radiological emergencies abroad. While this event is highly improbable, the Government is aware of the impact that it could have on Irish society, businesses and the economy. It is a statutory requirement that nuclear emergency exercises are organised by the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA. The previous such exercise, prior to the one in September, happened in 2017. Such exercises are part of regular and prudent Government planning for national emergencies and follow on from exercises also held a few months ago to test a hypothetical response to a disruption in our energy supplies.
Comment on this
It is an unlikely scenario but it is a low probability and high impact issue if it does actually occur. I thank the Taoiseach for confirming that there is a plan. My concern is that everybody who needs to know the plan is aware of it. Would the Taoiseach agree that we have the necessary resources in terms of equipment and people to ensure that we have a resourced implementation of this?
Over the Easter recess, will the Taoiseach and the appropriate Ministers consider getting a briefing to make sure they are fully updated on the situation?
Comment on this
I thank the Deputy. I believe we have adequate resources, but I am not sure what resources we would need, depending on how severe the event is. We do not believe any event would be likely or, if it did happen, would have a major impact on Ireland. We cannot take that for granted. The Tánaiste and Minister for Defence and I have plans to have a further briefing on this over the Easter period. It is something that is in train. We have not quite gone to the extent of advising the public as to what it should do in this scenario. We need to balance the risk with the threat and response. That is something we need to consider.