Impact of proposed US tariffs
Deputy Bacik asks about the economic impact and contingency planning for threatened US tariffs, while the Taoiseach cites continuing uncertainty and urges prudence in spending and budgeting.
We have seen yet another Trump tariff turn with his 30% announcement - or threat at least - at the weekend. I know, as the Taoiseach has said, this would be ruinous both for the EU economy and the US. We have also seen the new deadline of 1 August. Speaking with small business owners, they say it is not a relief to see that extended. Rather, it prolongs the uncertainty for business in Ireland, as the Taoiseach will be aware. I am asking what the impact will be and what is the contingency. The Government has already indicated there will clearly be an impact on budget planning. Will he confirm when the summer economic statement will be published? Will there be a revised national development plan next week as we understand? If the 30% tariffs proceed, does the Government anticipate having to revise the economic plan and will the Dáil be recalled at that point? I am conscious this is all very uncertain internationally but what is the contingency planning for Government?
Finally, I welcomed the fact that the Tánaiste provided Opposition leaders with briefings at different stages of the process on tariffs and I would welcome that to be continued.
Comment on this
First, the situation is very volatile and is very uncertain. It is because of that we are facing a very difficult background to the development of the NDP, completion of the national development plan, which is capital expenditure on water, energy and so on, the Estimates process with the Government and line Ministers and then the budget itself in October. It is very difficult to forecast and we have to be prudent. We have to be cautious and careful in terms of the resources we have. I know everybody wants us to spend billions but that is not open to us. We will be spending a lot. There will not be any austerity as has been asserted but there has to be some degree of caution here because the situation could change. There is considerable downside risk. There may be a relative upside risk if none of this materialises but there will be tariffs and the Economic Social Research Institute has done tables of 10% tariff impact and so on.