Future Forty housing outlook
Ivana Bacik argues that the Government’s housing policy has failed, producing unmet targets and rising homelessness. Jack Chambers says Future Forty is a no-change scenario analysis and defends increased infrastructure spending, market viability and new housing and apartment policies.
First, I want to say fáilte ar ais and welcome back to Deputy Boyd Barrett. I never thought I would say this, but I have missed his voice in my left ear across the aisle. It is great to see him back.
I acknowledge the wonderful electoral victories against Trump in the US overnight. The stunning win by Zohran Mamdani in New York, in particular, proves that voters want a message of hope. That takes me neatly on to my question. Yesterday, the Government published Future Forty, a long-term economic assessment of Ireland’s outlook conducted by the Department of Finance. It projects that the housing disaster will continue for at least another 15 to 20 years, which is a truly grim analysis for every generation in this State. The report also issues a stark warning about the high cost to us all due to the Government’s failure to invest in climate action measures. The Tánaiste might like to take particular note of the report’s finding that “continued inward migration will be vital to maintain growth in the labour force.” So much for his outrageous dog whistle comment last week that there are too many people coming here. As I pointed out to the Minister yesterday, this report confirms that we need people to come here to share their skills with us to run our schools, cafés, crèches, care homes and hospitals and to build the homes we need.
The report also tells us that the window of opportunity is closing when it comes to investing in infrastructure. My message to the Minister today is this: it would be utterly bizarre and, indeed, irresponsible for the Government to take as inevitable the projection that the housing crisis will continue for another decade or more. Regrettably, the Government has taken this bizarre approach for some time because in the face of successive damning reports about the lack of public investment by the Government, it has acted as if it has no power to change outcomes. The Minister and his Cabinet colleagues are not bystanders. They need to let go of neoliberal ideology, step up and show some ambition and urgency. As the Government’s own Housing Commission recommended, a radical reset of housing policy is needed and the Government needs to accept that we can fix things with political action. This is message is coming not just from those of us on the left, like Mamdani, but also from people like Stripe’s John Collison who asked at the weekend, “Why can’t Ireland just do things? It’s not for want of money.” I do not agree with all of his points, but he is right to say that Ministers have more powers to change things than they actually use. So, why does the Minister not step up?
In the Government’s recent budget, it could have taken on the constructive proposals that we in the Labour Party put forward to ensure investment in affordable homes and decent public services. Instead, it chose to reward burger barons and big builders. It chose to make an evidence-free VAT cut, costing €681 million per year, and not to invest in tackling the housing crisis or the crisis in healthcare and childcare. Yesterday’s report should increase the Government’s ambition, not temper its expectations. Will the Government now correct its course and deliver a truly ambitious plan to build homes and adopt that radical reset on housing?
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The report from the Department of Finance is not a projection. It looks at over 2,000 scenarios on a no-change policy basis. The Minister, Deputy Donohoe, was very clear yesterday that we are changing policy on an ongoing basis when it comes to infrastructure and housing, and we have more to do. We have a new housing plan being published in the coming weeks. We will have significant infrastructure reforms being published in the coming weeks, all to enable greater delivery of more homes and more infrastructure right across our economy. That is why it is important that we have that broad examination of the various economic and fiscal scenarios. It helps to set out the broader choices that we have as a Government and, indeed, as an Oireachtas around the risks which will crystallise. We know the trends on deglobalisation and how they will impact our wider long-term economic growth. We know the impacts when it comes to digitalisation and also the upside of that, if we can embrace that in the public service and also across all elements of the economy.
When it comes to housing delivery, if you look at the national development plan, you will see that next year we will have over €11 billion between current and capital spending for the Department of housing, which is a significant increase in overall spending to deliver more social and affordable homes. That mix of funding will be set out in the new national housing plan to really drive the delivery of more homes for families and people across our country.
It is not just about what the State is spending and allocating to housing. That is why when we bring forward measures, like the Minister, Deputy Browne, did yesterday on enabling private sector input in wastewater treatment plants, for example, what we heard from the Labour Party was total negativity.
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That is a measure which enables infrastructure and growth to be developed to build more homes across our economy. I ask Deputy Bacik to look at her own party. One of her own councillors is involved in judicial review proceedings against the new apartment guidelines, which will deliver more apartments and more units in our economy.
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Smaller apartments.
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We need to complement the State investment in housing with a market that is viable and can work. The Labour Party has attacked builders and developers in relation to the VAT cut. That is all about having viability in the market. If we are serious about delivering housing and more apartments, we must have a viable market to deliver more homes. Many families and workers across our economy want to see the delivery of more supply and we have to be honest around using taxation, regulation and other policy levers - not only more spending - as a means to deliver more homes.
We have fronted up to the question of spending when it comes to the national development plan on infrastructure and housing, but we also need to reset a wider policy when it comes to regulation in our economy by examining rules, regulations and structures in terms of infrastructure and housing so we can deliver more homes quicker. That is the focus of the Government when it comes to the challenges set out in the Future Forty report.
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I do not know where to start in coming back to the Minister on his response. We all know Government housing policy has abjectly failed. The Government failed to deliver homes or meet its own targets. We saw vastly elevated and false targets last year, and thousands of people in homelessness. It is absolutely shocking to see so many children in particular without a home in an Ireland that is wealthy, where the money is there to make the changes that are needed. Instead of taking responsibility for Government policy, the Minister and his colleagues consistently choose to attack Opposition parties.
The Labour Party put forward carefully costed and considered proposals. Unlike any other Opposition party, we chose not to narrow the tax base. We were realistic and constructive in our proposals. We are not the party of negativity, as the Minister suggests. Rather, we seek to ensure decent homes for people. I make no apology for seeking decent homes and decent housing standards as our councillors are consistently doing across the country. The Government needs to take responsibility for the failure and the failure in particular to adopt the radical reset that housing policy requires.
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We are absolutely fronting up to our responsibilities. I welcome any constructive suggestions on policy but a lot of the policy that is coming from the Opposition is just for more spending. The State has fronted up to that question when it comes to the national development plan - over €100 billion of spending in the next five years. The strategic focus is on infrastructure, housing, water infrastructure and energy infrastructure, all to enable more homes to be built across our economy. What the Deputy refuses to do is to be honest about proposals to also enable the market to function. We have viability gaps in terms of delivery of apartments. That is why guidelines should change. We have viability gaps in other areas of housing supply. That is why the reforms the Minister, Deputy Browne, has introduced to enable the market to function to complement the State's role in housing delivery is central to delivering the overall level of housing supply required in our economy.
The Deputy can attack the Government and talk about failure repeatedly but ultimately her approach would probably impose greater regulation, more stringency and more rules on the market.
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We would have less housing supply. That has been Labour's approach. Its councillor is involved in a judicial review-----
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-----on apartment guidelines. The Labour Party needs to be responsible as a party in stopping such a proposal.