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Dáil
‹ Ceisteanna ó Cheannairí - Leaders' Questions

Fiscal prudence and spending plans

Summary

Ivana Bacik raised the appearance of a large budget overspend and the delay in a medium-term spending framework, welcoming visiting students at the start. The Taoiseach defended the Government’s fiscal record, cited the national development plan and upcoming sectoral plans, and said investment would be matched by reform.

I welcome a group of transition year students who are with me today into the Gallery. They are aspiring TDs and are very welcome. This Government is budgeting like there is no tomorrow. It seems that prudent Paschal was actually profligate Paschal. Mr. Donohoe goes to Washington and leaves behind an overspend climbing towards €4 billion in 2025. In his second week on the job, the Tánaiste has had a rap on the knuckles from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. IFAC has once again pointed out what is plain for all to see. The Government’s budget is a work of fiction. The Taoiseach has just said that the Government is competent on the economy, but it does not even have a fiscal plan beyond next year. Were the Taoiseach a CEO coming before a board of directors, it is frankly hard to see how he would be allowed to continue in his role.

He castigates the Opposition for calling for investment, and Government spokespersons in the media today painted a picture of perfect prudence. He claims to be balancing the need to run a society as well as the economy. That is right. Of course he should. However, what has the Taoiseach got to show for the running of society? There are more than 5,000 children homeless, unaffordable rents and house prices, a creaking health service and massive under resourcing of public services like special education for children, and our Defence Forces. Those are just two examples. As my colleague Deputy Sherlock said today on RTÉ, it is not just what you spend, it is how you spend it. The Government's failure to invest in sustainable infrastructure leaves people’s living standards at the mercy of the market. That is the Taoiseach's philosophy to governing too. For example, we train world-class healthcare workers and then lose them to emigration. More than 3,500 HSE jobs are vacant. There are much-needed therapist roles vacant across the country. Meanwhile, the Government will spend €750 million on agency staff this year. Is that prudent?

The housing disaster is the civil rights issue for the generation of TY students with us today, yet the Government refuses to unleash the power of the State to build. Last year, councils and approved housing bodies built barely 300 social homes, but the State has spent €2 billion buying homes on the market – a model that costs 20% more than direct build. It is siphoning public money into the bank accounts of private developers, pricing ordinary buyers out of the process. Is that prudent?

Was the budget giveaway to burger barons and big builders really prudent? It is a subsidy for the wealthiest in society with no evidence it will save a single job, and the new finance Minister's fingerprints are all over it. IFAC’s report is a damning indictment of the Government's economic judgment. It provides further evidence of an abject failure to plan for the future. Will we see anything resembling a credible plan by the end of this year?

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A credible which?

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A medium-term framework.

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Yes, they will. I will say on the IFAC criticisms that you have had both sides. I also welcome the transition year students. By the way, the Deputy's party was notified by email at 2.30 p.m. on Friday that I would not be here yesterday. There was maybe a bit of inadvertent misleading of the House yesterday but we will pass over that.

IFAC did a research note recently on the impact of US tariffs and other policy changes that might affect corporation tax receipts. There is a downside to it. We know about the exceptional reliance on corporation tax, but that is accepted. Equally, IFAC stated in that note that while there was a surge in pharma exports due to the tariffs at the beginning of the year, there has also been a permanent increase in activity here. Ireland is still a key manufacturing hub for ingredients in popular weight-loss drugs. They will grow strongly. Global sales will reach 62 billion in 2030. The patents do not expire until 2036 or 2037. The global minimum tax pillar 2 will generate extra top-up revenues. The point I am making is that we need downside and upside scenarios in economic planning. Invariably, if it is a downside, IFAC has to do that as that is its job. However, it is equally valid to say you need upside scenario planning as well in future forecasting and planning. That does not tend to happen. I am saying that as a criticism of Government as well as the Government tends to go on the downside. That is acceptable. I have no issue other than to say that we should look at the other side of the equation as well. There is also the determination of expenditure rules. Future expenditure rules in my view should be credible and reflect growth of the real economy and inflation rates. Perhaps the fiscal target of 5% at the beginning of the previous Government did not adequately reflect real economic and inflation growth. What happened subsequently was that budgets went ahead of the 5%. When you factor in population growth in particular and the consequential pressures on services you begin to see how expenditure rose over that fiscal rule. Of course, we will be submitting a medium-term fiscal plan to Europe as is required, but we have to get it right. Deputy Bacik will be the first Deputy in here at next year's budget or the budget afterwards saying that we should have spent more on this or that. I want to make sure we have a medium-term fiscal rule with the Minister for Finance and Deputy Canney and the Independents that reflects reality, population growth and potential expenditures, and once we agree it to stay within those limits. The rule has to be realistic in the context of real economic growth and inflation forecasts and we are working on that. The IMF has done some work on this in respect of Ireland.

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I was genuinely taken by surprise yesterday when the Taoiseach was not here. However, I said it was a nice surprise to see the Minister, Deputy O'Brien, taking his place.

I stand over what I say. Prudence is not being miserly. It is spending responsibly. It is about responsible spending. We are told that one of the Tánaiste's first meetings last week as the new Minister for Finance was with IFAC. The question is if he learned anything from this. What we have seen are persistent delays in producing a medium-term spending framework. The Taoiseach has said, as has the Tánaiste, that it will be produced by the end of this year, I think. The Taoiseach might clarify that. However, there has been a huge delay because that was supposed to happen after the last election. We are also seeing a dipping into windfall corporation tax jackpots to lavish cash on burger barons and big builders. The Labour Party stood against that VAT cut. We stood against a narrowing of the tax base. We supported Government on the legislation setting up rainy day funds. We cannot be accused of being profligate, but we are asking the Government to be more prudent.

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We have announced a €270 billion national development plan. That is the fundamental pillar of this Government, and we have already allocated the funding. Today a transport sectoral plan will be published which will be significant for roads, rail and bus developments that will happen as a result of that. We will have a children and disabilities sectoral development plan. We will have a health sectoral development plan that puts flesh on the bone of real projects that will happen. It will be transformative. It is not just investment. It is also reform led by the Department of public expenditure and Jack Chambers in respect of the infrastructure division and getting infrastructure done faster. If we could have fewer objections and judicial reviews, we might achieve that. The Deputy spoke about a €300 million VAT reduction for construction and apartments.

If we get more apartments built, we will get a net increase in revenue out of it, not a reduction. We do need more apartments. There is no question about that. We are not building enough of them. That is why the VAT reduction in the budget was introduced, along with all the other measures we have done on housing, including rental reform of the RPZs, which was recommended by the Housing Commission, to make sure we will get accommodation and private sector and public sector investment in housing to get the number of houses and apartments we need built.

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