3235. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Health her Department’s own projection of the number of long-term residential care beds required for older people in each year to 2040; the current registered capacity measured against that projection; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [60735/26]

With a growing and ageing population, it is recognised that care provided in long-term residential care settings for older people will continue to be an important part of the continuum of care for older people into the future. Across the country, nursing homes in the public, private, and voluntary sectors play a vital role in the provision of long-term care and other services.

At August 2026, the HIQA register for designated centres for older people records a total capacity of 32,446 residential care beds across 547 nursing homes nationwide.

The Department of Health and the Health Service Executive (HSE) engaged the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), as part of the Department of Health and ESRI ‘Joint Research Programme in Healthcare Reform’, to undertake a new Capacity Review to inform long-term strategic planning for long-term residential care.

The ESRI’s Capacity Review report on Older People’s Care, published in June 2025, projects future demand for long-term residential care in Ireland to 2040.

The ESRI report states that long-term residential care bed capacity requirements are projected to increase from 29,579 beds in 2022, to between 48,955 beds and 53,266 beds by 2040, requiring an average annual growth of 2.8 to 3.3 per cent.

Short-stay bed capacity requirements are projected to increase from 3,745 beds in 2022, to between 6,431 beds and 7,265 beds by 2040, requiring an average annual growth of 3.0 to 3.7 per cent.

The ESRI’s demand and capacity analysis will be invaluable to the Department of Health in advancing evidence-based capacity planning, which is responsive, agile, and meets the needs of our increasing older population.

The Government is committed to continued investment in healthcare infrastructure which supports the highest quality care for our older population and to utilising planning and resource allocation measures as a lever to reduce regional inequalities in long-term residential care supply.

The 2025 Programme for Government commits to build more public nursing home beds and include dementia specific provision across all new Community Nursing Units. In this context, the Department of Health, alongside the HSE, is developing a new public Long-Term Residential Care Additional Capacity Plan.