ESRI growth and economic recovery
Senators seek a debate on the ESRI’s growth projections and discuss employment, economic recovery, and possible budget measures such as reduced VAT. They differ over whether the forecasts are too optimistic.
I join those who have called for a debate on the latest ESRI economic commentary. Next week, obviously, we will be concentrating on the budget. Between then and Christmas, we should have several debates to deal with various reports, starting with the ESRI's. I note that it is predicting higher growth rates next year. I do not believe this is correct, but we will find out in due course. One of our problems is that a coterie of State agencies have been over-optimistic about our growth rates. I remember telling the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Deputy Brendan Howlin, two years ago in the Chamber that in the Government’s tenure growth rates would not average more than 1%. At the time the Government was predicting a growth rate of 2.5% for 2012 and 2.6% for 2013. None of these has come to pass.
I recognise that confidence in the economy is starting to come back, which is an essential first step. However, the most important factor above all others is the unemployment rate. We had a 14.8% unemployment rate at the peak of the recession.
Next year it will probably be approximately 13%. That should caution us all about the extent of the development and growth we need to see in our economy to correct that serious unemployment situation. We had a 4.4% unemployment rate at the peak of the economic boom and we should start to get back to that figure.
We should look at competitiveness in the economy. Our cost of living is exceptionally high and I am disappointed that the Government has not taken steps to try to bring some structural corrections to the economy. The public service is still way overpaid and social welfare costs are too high because the cost of living is too high. Something must be done to inject some momentum into that area in order that we can get back to having a sustainable, competitive economy. I would like a debate on that issue.
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I did not speak yesterday. I welcome the people's decision. We have the most current mandate of all Irish politicians. It is incumbent on all of us to ensure we use this House to-----
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We must use this House productively in the coming years to help in the continued economic recovery of the country.
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The Senator is speaking like a "No" voter.
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We all welcome the ESRI report which projects growth of 2.7% next year. The projected increase in employment is very much to be welcomed. In the past year 33,000 jobs have been created. It is welcome that the CSO figures in my county show a drop of 1,700 people on the live register in recent months. That is very much to be welcomed. The forthcoming budget gives us an opportunity to stimulate some growth and activity in the economy and I hope the Minister will use VAT rates to help do that. We saw how successful the VAT rate decrease for the tourism sector was in the past couple of years and I hope that will continue.
I agree with Senator Colm Burke that we need some stimulus for the construction industry and hope it will be to the benefit of small contractors and tradespeople. If the economy is to recover sufficiently in the coming years, we need a much higher level of activity in the construction sector. I agree with Senator Lorraine Higgins that we must be careful that those who wrecked the country in the past decade do not benefit. I am hopeful and confident that the Minister will target VAT adjustments towards the smaller contractor and to the benefit of smaller projects that many people would like to undertake in their homes.
I would like the Leader to have a debate in the near future in this House on the growing levels of addiction. The growing number of people on the streets of the capital and every town throughout rural Ireland is a source of worry and should be a source of shame for us all. They are very vulnerable people and we need some emergency measures and task forces to address this growing problem. As a humane Christian society we cannot allow the phenomenon of people's lives being destroyed by addiction to continue. We must take some drastic steps. This House would be an ideal place in which to debate and discuss what we as a nation, a community and a people can do for those very vulnerable, desperate individuals.