I want to raise the question of international travel and some recent developments in that regard, and hopefully get some clarification from the Tánaiste.

Last week, the Chief Medical Officer, CMO, when he appeared before the Joint Committee on Transport and Communications Networks, was asked about the possibility of restrictions on air travel being eased in order to facilitate people to travel here at Christmas. His response was that international travel is not safe and movement of people around areas with high incidence of this disease, particularly Europe and North America, is not safe. He went on to make the point that it is impossible to gauge what the situation in regard to the virus might be in six weeks' time, which is fair enough. In recent days, the Government announced new proposals in respect of travel and change in the regime in this regard. A number of those proposals require clarification.

It goes without saying that I fully appreciate the importance of Christmas for people, especially families. Many people, including me, have family members living abroad who have not been able to come home for the past year. We would all really love to have some kind of normal Christmas and to spend time with our families. I also fully appreciate the importance of Christmas for the business community in terms of the amount of trade done in the weeks coming up to Christmas and at Christmas in general. However, it is really important that we do not engage in short-term thinking. We need to consider the time horizon relating to the taking of some of these decisions and prioritise keeping the downward pressure on the number of virus cases. The last thing anybody wants, either the public or the business community, is that we would go into a third lockdown in January. It is important to bear in mind that public health considerations and business and economic considerations are two sides of the same coin.

I am seeking clarification from the Tánaiste. Last year, approximately 1.2 million people passed through Dublin Airport. What kind of modelling has been done in respect of the potential for a spike in the virus figures? Specifically, was the CMO consulted about these proposed new arrangements? What are the proposals for oversight of the testing arrangements that the Government suggests would apply to people coming from red zones and orange zones? As far as I know, the public health advice is that there is a need for a double test to ensure that a person is negative. For people who do have a test when they arrive here and it proves positive, is the Government satisfied that there is sufficient capacity in the tracing system to be able to respond to what will inevitably be a spike in positive results?

I thank the Deputy for the questions. The CMO was consulted. The matter was discussed at the Cabinet sub-committee on Covid. We were both present and we discussed it. I recall that at the time the CMO said he was not particularly concerned about international travel. As we get the numbers down, it becomes a greater concern for reasons which the Deputy will understand. I do not know exactly what type of formal oversight mechanism will exist. I will come back to the Deputy on that.

We are confident that we will have the 800 contact tracers in place and that will give us sufficient capacity to carry out whatever tracing is necessary. There are 650 in place already. In a situation where there are approximately 1,000 cases per day, tracing becomes really difficult. If we can keep the number of cases low, in the ballpark of 100 or 200, we will have more than enough tracers to do the job that needs to be done.

International travel is a risk. We need to be upfront and honest about that. We need to get the virus down to very low levels again. We are doing really well in that regard. We are ahead of the projections at the moment in terms of getting the virus under control. The average number of weekly cases is one quarter of what it was only a few weeks ago and the positive rate has fallen from 7% to 3.5%. The numbers are very much going in the right direction. There is a risk, however, that as we get down to very low levels again, the country could be reseeded with the virus by people travelling in from overseas. There is an even higher risk that if people engage in North-South travel - because a different approach is being taken in Northern Ireland - we could be reseeded as a result. This type of travel probably poses a much higher risk than people travelling here from Qatar, Miami or wherever. We need to bear in mind that Ireland is an island but it is not an island state. There are two jurisdictions on this island. We are never going to close the border between North and South so we have to bear in mind that we are not in the same boat as other island nations might be.

We can limit risk but we cannot eliminate it entirely. That is why we have opted into the European system for international travel. It is advocated by the EU Commissioner for Health and backed by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control's data and so it is science-based. This creates regions that are green, amber and red. There will be no restrictions in respect of travel here from a green region but a person travelling from an amber region will need a negative test before arriving in order to avoid having to restrict his or her movements. A person travelling here from a red region will have to restrict his or her movements and undergo a test after five days. He or she will not have to restrict his or her movements if that test proves negative. We are considering what kind of legal mechanism we need to put around that because it is not mandatory or enforceable, and penalties do not apply. Perhaps, we need to do that. This is one of the issues we are discussing at the moment. There are also a series of exemptions for healthcare workers, diplomats and people engaged in imperative family travel and imperative business because those things have to go on.

In terms of people booking flights to come home for Christmas, I would advise them not to do so at the moment. I know that is difficult and I know it is tough. Christmas is six weeks away and it is too soon for people to be booking flights to come home. I was watching "Reeling in the Years" the other day. In 1967, there was an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in England and people were asked not to come home. They did not come home and foot and mouth disease did not spread to Ireland. I am not saying that it is the same now but we are not in a position at this point to advise people that it is safe to come home for Christmas. I know that is a tough message to hear but that is the case at the moment.

I thank the Tánaiste. On my question about the requirement for a double test, my understanding is the medical advice is that a double test would be required at the moment. I ask the Tánaiste to clarify that.

My question in regard to capacity for tracing does not relate to the current numbers, it relates to the potential for large numbers of people coming here for Christmas. That is why it is really important that there are not mixed messages in this regard. I note what the Tánaiste said about the current advice. In the event of large numbers of people coming here and needing to take tests after five days, I presume that a significant number of them will test positive. Is the Government satisfied that there is capacity in the tracing system to deal with that potential large influx at Christmas, when people will be looking for leave and so on. Can the Tánaiste tell us what modelling has been done in this regard? The last thing we want is a third lockdown. It is in nobody interest that we would face that. Has modelling been done on the potential for a spike?

Some modelling has been done on the possibility of a third wave in January and February, which has been published by NPHET or Professor Nolan. I do not know to what extent international travel feeds into that modelling. I will have to check that. In terms of the European regulation that we have adopted and signed up to, that does not require a double test. It falls within the discretion of member states to decide how to proceed in this regard. NPHET's advice to us is that a double test would be better which, of course, is the case because any laboratory test creates false negatives. If there is a double test, it is less likely there will be two false negatives. This is the Swiss cheese analogy that people tend to use.

In terms of capacity, the position is that people coming in from the green regions will not have to undergo tests so their travelling here should not have any implications for contact tracing. People coming in from amber regions should have a negative test before getting on the aeroplane and this, too, should not have any implications for contact tracing. Where implications might arise is people coming in from red-----

What is the situation where a person tests positive?

A person who tests positive is not supposed to travel.

Is there any oversight of that?

That is what we have to work on.