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Dáil
‹ Ceisteanna ó Cheannairí - Leaders' Questions

Housing data and public trust

Summary

Cian O'Callaghan presses the Taoiseach on why he relied on private forecasts for the 40,000-home claim while disregarding CSO, ESRI and Central Bank data, asking whether he misled the public. The Taoiseach denies any deliberate misleading, defends the estimates and Government targets, acknowledges disappointment at the shortfall, and attacks opposition housing policies and conduct during government-formation talks.

I have watched the Taoiseach's answers in the Dáil Chamber over the last five years. I have to say the answer he gave on housing and the 40,000 homes is one of the weakest I have ever seen him deliver in this House. He said he had a genuine belief that 40,000 homes would be delivered, based on estimates from private entities. Why did the Taoiseach completely disregard the hard data coming from the official State bodies, like the CSO, which were completely disputing his claim of 40,000 homes? Why did the Taoiseach not accept that data from the CSO? Is it only when it comes to housing completions in an election year that he does not listen to CSO data? Is that the case? Is it that for everything else he accepts CSO data, but not when it comes to housing completions in an election year? Can the Taoiseach explain why he does not accept the official data sources from the Central Bank, the ESRI and the CSO? Although the Taoiseach, the then Minister for housing, Deputy Darragh O'Brien, and the Tánaiste, Deputy Simon Harris, were saying 40,000 homes, all of those bodies were disputing that and the Government was not listening. Why is that?

In the run-up to the election, the Government spin on this was relentless. It was said time and again that the housing plan was working and that 40,000 homes would be delivered. The Government did this despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. It ignored all of the reports from the CSO, the Central Bank and the ESRI that said housing delivery would be nowhere near 40,000 homes. In a video posted during the election, the Taoiseach said that when the Government came into office, we had 20,000 houses being built a year, and we are now coming close to 40,000. Deputies Darragh O'Brien and Simon Harris likewise made similar statements, and Deputy O'Brien even claimed at times that there was going to be in excess of 40,000 homes delivered. In fact, we got 10,000 fewer homes than the 40,000 promised, which was a 7% decrease on the year before.

Let us be clear about this. These claims were made as recently as last November, just ten weeks ago. For those to have stood up, there would have to have been 10,000 additional homes near completion at that point. There were not. Those homes do not exist. This is not just an academic issue about numbers. This is about people whose hopes and dreams of affording their own home are being shattered by this lack of delivery. Was the Taoiseach’s claim that 40,000 homes would be delivered last year a deliberate deception? Does he regret misleading the public on this?

Comment on this

As I have said already, housing is the number one issue. It was not, in any shape or form, a deliberate attempt to mislead people. I have quoted those who early in the year and mid-year were predicting close to 40,000, such as EY-Euroconstruct, Deutsche Bank and Cairn Homes.

Others, by the way, in other years the Deputy identified, underestimated the number of houses that were subsequently built. That is something Deputy O'Callaghan has not spoken of. We exceeded our targets in 2022 and in 2023, which the Deputy dismissed at the time. The Deputy engaged in significant political commentary as opposed to at least acknowledging the fact we exceeded targets in 2022 and 2023.

I also have to put it to the Deputy that, throughout the past four years, his party's policy position was to oppose significant legislation and initiatives that led to increased housing, particularly on the affordable side. They opposed the Land Development Agency Act, the Affordable Housing Act and the planning Act. You have shown no sense of urgency around the housing crisis. I believe the Deputy has been too ideologically wedded to certain fundamentals-----

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-----in terms of the housing issue and the housing market.

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One of the challenges we have, and it will remain a challenge irrespective of what gets said, is how we balance the unprecedented level of State investment in housing with private sector investment in housing, because if we want to get to 50,000 homes per year, we are going to have to do that. That will need fairly focused, specific change in what we have been doing. I acknowledge that.

I have said we are disappointed we did not reach our targets, and I regret that very strongly, but it just redoubles my effort to have an honest look-----

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Honest after the election.

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-----at all of the initiatives that have happened in recent years and where we have to do more. I would respectfully suggest it is not in opposing every initiative the Government comes forward with. It is not taking safe options such as saying it all has to be social housing on one side or nothing, which delayed housing schemes-----

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Nobody said that.

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You did - which delayed housing schemes for years in this country. Absolute fundamentalism in respect of how things should happen has held back housing growth in this country. I am going to put it to the Deputy that we are going to take initiatives here and I would welcome his support for them, instead of what has happened over the past four years, where you have opposed every single progressive measure designed to get increased output in housing.

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Ten out of ten to the Taoiseach for deflection and evasion. Where are the 40,000 homes the Taoiseach promised? Why, as Taoiseach, when it comes to housing completions data, does he accept reports from private entities and reject the data from the CSO?

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You rejected data, actually.

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Why? The Taoiseach has not answered that. He failed to answer that. Is it only when it comes to housing completions in an election year that he does not listen to CSO data-----

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You rejected CSO data last year.

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-----or is it when it suits him?

For years, no one could trust Fianna Fáil after then Ministers Noel Dempsey and Dermot Ahern could not keep a straight face when they were denying there was going to be a bailout of the banks after the economic crash. The Taoiseach worked hard to try to rebuild trust in Fianna Fáil and he is throwing that away by going into election years and making claims about 40,000 homes that he could not stack up and that the Central Bank, ESRI and CSO were not backing up. I will ask my question again. Does the Taoiseach regret misleading the public on this?

Comment on this

First of all, as I said to the Deputy, and I will say again, there was no attempt to mislead the public on this. That is the first point.

I will make another point. We used ESRI data for our election targets in housing, which the Deputy's party did and everybody did. The fundamental question is how the targets are achieved. That is the core question. What the Social Democrats put forward on its election manifesto and programme did not persuade people that it had a silver bullet on housing because it did not. I met with the Social Democrats and the Labour Party during talks on the formation of Government and you were extremely poor in terms of what you brought forward: no fleshing out-----

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You did not even know what was in our housing policy.

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One of your main contributions to that meeting, and I remember it well, was you looking at your watch: nudge, nudge, time to get out to make the 6 o'clock news for the soundbite. That was your contribution to Government talks.

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Verona Murphy An Ceann Comhairle Independent

Deputies, please. No clapping.

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That is what happened. We saw it on our side: nudge, nudge, look at the watch, we better get out and get the 6 o'clock news.

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Verona Murphy An Ceann Comhairle Independent

Thank you, Taoiseach.

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The Social Democrats had no commitment to going into Government.

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Answer the question.

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Verona Murphy An Ceann Comhairle Independent

Thank you, Taoiseach. Your time is up.

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