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Dáil
‹ Ceisteanna ó Cheannairí - Leaders' Questions

Trump tariffs and trade response

Summary

Deputies Bacik, Nash, Gannon and O'Callaghan warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could damage Ireland, Europe and the world economy, and asked about briefing, EU countermeasures, supports for affected sectors and whether CETA should be ratified. The Taoiseach said tariffs were bad, the response had to be strategic and calibrated, Ireland should support trade deals such as CETA, and it was too early to decide on specific supports or repurposing funds.

This April Fool's Day we are bracing ourselves for the impact of the most foolish April Fool of them all. I am talking, of course, about Trump's tariffs, the scale and scope of which we will learn tomorrow. Not content with damaging his own economy, he has now got his sights set on ours too. Reportedly, even within his own administration, there is no knowing yet what exactly he has planned. Indeed, he may not even know himself.

In that context, I was glad that the Tánaiste responded positively to my request in scheduling a briefing last week for Opposition leaders to hear from officials in his Department about the likely impact of tariffs. I thank the Tánaiste and his officials for what was a comprehensive, but deeply worrying, briefing.

Clearly, we cannot take the threat of tariffs seriously enough. We know that a significant fall in exports to the US could mean significant job losses here and we know how reliant the Exchequer is on corporation tax, a disproportionate amount of which is from the profits of US multinationals.

The place we find ourselves in today reflects the risks that the Taoiseach's party and Fine Gael have taken with the economy - first, in failing to diversify our economic base. Our economic model has clearly become over-reliant on a very small number of big American corporations and that is widely acknowledged as a risk. Second, there is a serious risk to our economy because the Government has contrived to waste what has undoubtedly been a boom.

Our eye-watering corporation tax gains have been squandered because the Government did not use the money to invest in the sustainable infrastructure we so badly need. Affordable housing, decent public transport, universal childcare, fit-for-purpose healthcare and clean energy supplies are what we should have in place here in Ireland, given the budgetary figures we have had. Instead, the Government has favoured one-off measures in recent budgets. It gave a few quid off skyrocketing electricity bills and a tiny amount towards spiralling rents but nothing meaningful for those who are in such great need in a housing and a cost-of-living crisis.

This is crunch time. Will the Taoiseach indicate that the Government's response to tariffs will prioritise public investment and targeted measures to help those who need them most? Will the Government act to safeguard jobs and livelihoods? We have welcomed the index-linking of welfare payments - that is very good to see - but now is the time to prepare for potential job losses. Since the pandemic, we in Labour have been calling for a State-backed short-term wage subsidy scheme to protect workers during periods of uncertainty. It would work like the employment wage subsidy scheme, which was introduced during the pandemic. Such schemes have long been in place in countries such as Germany. We have termed our scheme the ObairGhearr scheme. It would subsidise employees to work shorter hours when companies encounter difficulties and provide access to upskilling programmes. It is a vital type of model to protect workers' dignity and the livelihoods of families and households. Will the Taoiseach commit to looking at our proposals for this short-term working scheme and give us a commitment that the Government will respond to Trump's tariffs tomorrow with effective, targeted measures to protect not only businesses but also families and struggling households?

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Níl aon amhras ach gurb é seo an t-ábhar is tábhachtaí a bheidh os comhair na Dála seo agus os comhair na tíre sna blianta atá romhainn. Bunathrú atá faoi chaibidil ag údaráis na Stát Aontaithe agus Uachtarán na Stát Aontaithe maidir le tariffs agus cúrsaí trádala. Without question this is a fundamental shift in US policy. Tariffs are bad. They are bad for the world. They will create instability, uncertainty and a lack of predictability in the world economy. That will mean a pause in investment. Whatever about existing investments, decision-makers are pausing their investment decisions pending this settling down. That will have a dampening effect on economic growth, not just globally but also across Europe and in Ireland. It is clear from what we understand so far that we are looking at a universal applicability of tariffs in terms of countries and goods. We have a number of sectors. The US Administration is going to focus on five sectors, including semiconductors, wood, pharma and automotive, which is having a big impact already in some EU countries. The key issue, however, is that Europe does not want tariffs and wants negotiation. Europe will take a strategic approach in its response, and that is as it should be. We are part of the European Union and we will input into that response as to what is the most effective, strategic way to mitigate the impact of tariffs on Ireland and Europe. Tariffs will increase inflation, increase the cost of medication and increase the cost of groceries in America in particular and elsewhere.

I reject the Deputy's criticisms in terms of Ireland. Ireland has a broad base that comprises indigenous and multinational investment here and abroad. Irish companies are all over the world, and there is a connection. The FDI that came into Ireland spawned a lot of Irish-owned companies. These are now big strong companies that developed on the back of supply chains to the multinationals, particularly in the areas of project management and instrumentation. Take a company like Intel or some of the pharmaceutical companies. They are constructing plants all over the world. Very often, Irish companies will be found in the supply chains to those companies. It is far too simplistic to draw a distinction between the FDI sector and Ireland's SME sector. We need to diversify markets. We need to sign the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, CETA. I think the Labour Party was opposed to CETA.

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We had concerns about it.

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It had concerns. It was against it, and that was wrong.

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What I said earlier.

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Our bread and butter is trade deals-----

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Yes. Hear, hear.

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-----and we should support CETA. I would appreciate the Labour Party's support when we bring the legislation to ratify that deal before the House.

I will come back later in the next reply.

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All of us in this House agree that the tariffs Trump is proposing are bad for the worldwide economy. Indeed, we could be facing an international "Trump slump", as it has been described. The fear of tariffs itself is having a destabilising effect across Ireland and across Europe. We all appreciate that the EU has to respond in a strategic manner to whatever comes forward from the US tomorrow, but equally, we have to control the controllables here at home. The Minister for Finance has pointed out the need to invest in infrastructure, an acknowledgement that, as is widely accepted, we simply do not have the critical public infrastructure that should be in place at this point in time. I refer to housing in particular. We all know that is the biggest crisis facing the Government.

This is why Labour is offering a constructive proposal. Our ObairGhearr scheme could be transformational. It could have made a very significant difference during the previous recession. It would have enabled us to hold onto more of our construction workers. That would have meant we could have delivered more homes. We might even have been able to deliver 40,000 homes last year had we enabled construction workers to stay in Ireland via a subsidised scheme such as we have seen in Germany. Will the Taoiseach review our scheme and look at it as a potential way to help households?

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This is a different potential economic upheaval than the previous one. It is of a different structure and a different nature. We have provided for the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund, which are providing substantial funding. We will have €16 billion by the end of this year in the Future Ireland Fund. Whatever we do, we should try to maintain that as a protector of the future and the generations who will require access to pensions and social protection and continuing investment in infrastructure. We will be prioritising investment in infrastructure in terms of water, the grid, the digital transformation of health, public transport and so forth.

In addition to that, Europe wants to double down on the Single Market. I agree with President von der Leyen on this. Ireland has to play its role in that because the Single Market has been good for Ireland. The savings and investment union is now being seriously pushed by the EU. Ireland will co-operate constructively to arrive at a landing zone that benefits Ireland and benefits the wider European Union in respect of releasing savings to enable investment to take place in Europe to a far greater degree than is the case at the moment.

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Tomorrow, Donald Trump will take a wrecking ball to the world economy. His goal is clear and unambiguous, that being, to cause maximum damage. Yesterday, Trump said his tariffs would make his country go boom, which brought to mind the Hindenburg disaster because, as far as plans go, tariffs are up there with filling an airship with flammable gas. Tariffs are toxic to trade and economic growth and America will not be immune from this poison, which is why fears of a recession in the United States are growing.

We are through the looking glass when it comes to the Trump Administration. Appeals to reason and logic are doomed to failure. As a small open economy, the threat to us is particularly serious. This is clear from the modelling that has been done. In the worst case scenario, up to 80,000 jobs could be lost or not created. Pharmaceutical exports to the US could halve.

As the world's largest trading bloc, the EU will have to respond to this unprovoked aggression, but it is crucial that any response is well thought-out and measured. It is essential that our voices and national interests are represented in any EU retaliation.

As the Taoiseach will know, trade is an EU competency, but there is much that we can do domestically to prepare for this onslaught. In the short term, emergency supports may need to be put in place for impacted sectors. Allied with this, we should be turbocharging investment in critical infrastructure. We need to invest in energy, transport and water infrastructure to reduce costs for businesses and households. We need to invest in affordable housing to support our continued economic development.

We have no control over what will be announced tomorrow but we must use every lever we have here and at an EU level to mitigate the damage. What is the Taoiseach's position on tit-for-tat tariffs at an EU level? Will he outline any EU supports that will be made available for impacted sectors? The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund was initially set up to help workers who lost out on jobs due to globalisation.

Will the Taoiseach advocate for this fund to be repurposed to help workers impacted by these tariffs? What preparation is being done to introduce emergency domestic supports for impacted sectors and how does the Taoiseach intend to communicate these?

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I thank the Deputy for his question. The response has to be on an number of levels. First, within the European Union, we will be consulting with and inputting into the Commission. The design of countermeasures is important - that it is not a knee-jerk tit-for-tat-type of response. It has to be calibrated, it has to be strategic, to make sure that whatever do, we do not damage ourselves more by doing it. When I say "we", I mean Europe, with Ireland obviously as part of that. That is particularly applicable to the pharmaceutical sector. We have to weigh that up because a response could even be counterproductive and compound the problems. The Commission is working on that. It is aware of our views. We obviously have concerns in the agrifood area. The design of countermeasures will be critical in ensuring that we do that which is optimal for our workers. Protection of jobs is the number one priority of the Irish Government in all of this. It will take some time to unfold.

European did not start this; Europe does not want a tariff war. Europe wants negotiation. I hope, following Europe's response, we will get to negotiation with the US Administration and then get to some settled landing zone, but even that landing zone post negotiation will not be where we are today. We need to be upfront about that. As President von der Leyen said, the old order is essentially gone for now. Therefore, we have to adapt and innovate. Europe's strength is in doubling down on the Single Market and diversifying trade to other countries. This Dáil has had a strange approach to trade deals that the European Union conducts and has opposed them time and time again, vitriolically at times, which makes no sense in terms of where the Irish economy is. We need to wake up fast to the value and importance of the trade deals Europe can do. Counterintuitively, the best thing to do against the protectionist leanings of the US and others is to start doing more trade deals. I hope by the end of this year that Europe will have a deal closed with India. It is looking at Indonesia and it has concluded deals. We have to reflect on that very hard as an Oireachtas. Trade works for Ireland. If one takes the Canadian-European Union trade deal, trade has gone up 30% for Irish SMEs in the Canadian market. This was opposed by most of the Opposition-----

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That is not true.

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-----on the grounds of the investor clauses and all of that.

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Investor courts.

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Dáil Éireann has not been in a position to ratify the CETA deal even though it has been in provisional operation since 2018. What does that say about Irish legislators in terms of what matters to the Irish people, what matters for Irish jobs and what is essentially the bread and butter of people's lives on the table?

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Workers' rights. Environmental legislation.

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This works for workers. The trade deal works for workers. That is the point.

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The Taoiseach just confirmed that trade with Canada is flourishing without the provisions of the investor court, so we can have strong trade without those provisions.

To get back to the key point about supporting workers and sectors impacted by the announcements that will take place tomorrow and thereafter, are there plans at EU level to put in place supports? The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund was a successful support. Will it be repurposed? Will the Taoiseach ask and lobby for that to be repurposed? Will he take on board this suggestion? It could be very useful. On a domestic level, what sorts of support will be put in place? When will the Government make decisions on those and when will they be communicated?

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It is far too early to make decisions in relation to that right now. We have to see where this lands. I do not believe the capacity to reshore pharmaceuticals in the short term is there. The issue in the short term is more the pausing of investment decisions for the future. That is what would concern me. American companies have grown strong in Ireland. This is a point we are making bilaterally to the US. They are an integrated part of a complex supply chain between here and the US. A lot of our products go to the US for finished product to be made there. There is a bit to go on this yet. I hope there will be negotiations following the EU response that can reduce tariffs significantly and that we can navigate our way through this with the objective of protecting jobs into the future.

It is a different structural issue economically that we have to come to grips with but again it is a bit early yet to almost be saying that certain job losses are inevitable. The pace of this is yet unclear. The impacts are unclear because I do not think we have witnessed such a universal application of tariffs before across the globe.

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